18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
This is a very foreboding session for our favorite local investment banker. Look at the downside pin action in the banks, especially the foreign fuckers.
More to the point is the Italian bond-bund spread — currently and menacingly at 292bps. For those of you not versed in this language, it means Italian bonds are trading at nearly a 3% premium (300bps) to German bunds (10yr). This is significant because the EU is supposed to be a bloc. When a member state blows out like this it means the market is pricing in dislocation and possible exit from the union.
The specter of the EU imploding is hitting the European banks — similar to what we saw with BREXIT.
The play here is simple: buy the blood. This will turn out to be more nothing — but we need to time it correctly. Lucky for me, I am machine learning that can tell me exactly when the market is oversold. Lucky for you, you have me.
I’ve been holding this stock for more than a month, a life time for my discretionary account. By the grace of God, markets are cratering lower today and mostly all of my positions are higher, some appreciably so.
In this case, FIZZ is busting tits to the upside, fork lifting shorts by their under-garments and tossing them into open fire pits.
Clearly, as you can see by this chart, the stock is heading much higher.
The chart does not lie, you incredible faggot. You know damned well FIZZ will get bought out inside of two years, maybe sooner. Everyone with style and a mind for health loves La Croix. Personally, I prefer coconut and cherise limon flavors. But others are just fine too.
Markets are impossible to trade. What you need to do is attain extreme talent, like me, or get some software that could fire out some algorithmic trades, also like me. Otherwise, you’re simply dicking around with charts like some sort of broke-backed broker from the 90s, plainly and evidently retarded.
Last week I doubled up on BILI, a rare move for me as of late. There was a place and time when averaging up and down was standard procedure; but those were different times when I abided by different rules. These days, I’m moonlighting, ripping in and out of stocks for sport, not for necessity. My real money is being managed by my robots.
I kicked out of BILI just under $15, for a +12% doubled up win. Proceeds head to cash. I’ll probably sit the rest of the day out watching my IQ rise.
When the iPhone X was released with OLED tech, I created a watchlist in Exodus to track the industry. Since then, the sector has been hit and the shares of some of the key players bedraggled by underperformance. All of that might be coming to an end now, since Apple has announced it will switch over to OLED panels next year — leaving LCD manufactured in the dust to die of thirst.
The American tech juggernaut is reportedly looking at organic light-emitting diode, or OLED, panels, which make images appear brighter and sharper compared to another technology used for some smartphone screens — liquid crystal display, or LCD.
The smartphone maker recently started planning three new iPhone models for next year and decided that all of them would have OLED panels, the report said, citing unnamed industry sources.
CNBC reached out to Apple for comment but did not immediately hear back.
At the moment, only the iPhone X uses OLED, while the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus both have LCD screens. Apple was already expected to employ OLED tech in two of its three models to be shipped later this year, according to Appleinsider.
OLED screens result in rich displays, but they are also more expensive. That is why they are usually seen in high-priced smartphone models like the iPhone X.
Apple had been trying to improve the iPhone’s display technology with OLED to differentiate its smartphones from competitors, according to Jerry Kang, senior principal analyst at IHS Markit.
Still, the tech giant would only be able to “shift to using OLED panels for all iPhone models once it achieves the market demand with competitive price,” Kang told CNBC.
The report from Electronic Times was immediately felt by the stocks of some Apple suppliers.
On Tuesday morning in Tokyo, shares of Japan Display fell more than 20 percent at one point on the back of the news. A shift toward OLED panels for all new iPhones would be initially problematic for the Japanese company, which is one of the main suppliers of LCD screens for Apple.
The main player here is OLED. Other ancillary plays include UCTT, COHR, ORBK and MX.
SemiFAGS prepare to get beat down. The White House just released their final determination on the matter of tariffs, as it pertains to technology. They’re affixing a 25% tariff to $50b in tech goods. I am certain China will save face by offering some tax of their own.
“To protect our national security, the United States will implement specific investment restrictions and enhanced export controls for Chinese persons and entities related to the acquisition of industrially significant technology. The proposed investment restrictions and enhanced export controls will be announced by June 30, 2018, and they will be implemented shortly thereafter.”
“Under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the United States will impose a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of goods imported from China containing industrially significant technology, including those related to the “Made in China 2025″ program. The final list of covered imports will be announced by June 15, 2018, and tariffs will be imposed on those imports shortly thereafter.”
“Likewise, the United States will request that China remove all of its many trade barriers, including non-monetary trade barriers, which make it both difficult and unfair to do business there. The United States will request that tariffs and taxes between the two countries be reciprocal in nature and value. Discussions with China will continue on these topics, and the United States looks forward to resolving long-standing structural issues and expanding our exports by eliminating China’s severe import restrictions.”
Speaking matter of factly here, this is a most horrendous tape to be trading. It’s not safe out there anymore — don’t let anyone fool you into believing you can trade like some sort of disheveled idiot without consequence. We live in a society of vandals who disseminate fake news for bad reasons; it can never come as a surprise when our investments fall astray due to some political event that materializes out of nowhere.
Today’s panic du jour is the collapse of the EU again, because Spain and Italy might want it that way. Why would both Spain and Italy want to stop feeding off the tit of Mother Germany? Who knows? Perhaps nationalism is back because people feel like shit, subjugated by a borderless wraith headquartered in Brussels. Whatever the reason may be, we know nothing will come of this — just like BREXIT and GREXIT before that, Trump, and everything else that’ll come later. The status quo cannot be defeated.
Over the weekend, Italy’s prime minister appointed former International Monetary Fund official Carlo Cottarelli as interim prime minister to form a new government and restore political order within the country.
The euro zone’s third-largest economy has been struggling to establish a government since inconclusive elections in March, with anti-establishment forces abandoning their effort to form a ruling coalition over the weekend.
The latest developments have spurred previously dormant fears concerning the stability of the eurozone and default risk concerning Italy’s €2.3 trillion ($2.68 trillion). The 10-year Italian bond yield jumped above 3.06 percent on Tuesday, more than 2.5 percentage points above the German 10-year bond rate. Yields move inversely to prices.
WTI is down 1%, but Brent is +1%. This is great for refiners, since they purchase in WTI and sell in Brent. The main beneficiary from this widening is HFC.
The dollar is +0.5% v the euro — standard risk off nonsense. And, lastly, Spanish, Portuguese, and Italian bonds are blowing out vs German. I suppose now is a good time to start referencing levels for the sake of keeping track.
The Spanish 10yr is 1.59%, Portuguese 10yr 2.23%, and Italian 10yr is 3.05%.
Dow futs are -160, Italy, Spain and Portuguese markets are off by ~2.5%.
Just a short while ago, rather admittedly, I was fully enveloped in the furious research of what we now know to be an utter and complete scam: the bitcoin. Whereas others might try to hide from this humiliating fact, I instead embrace it.
I flaunt it like a decapitated limb following a Great War. Albeit, I was late to the party and jumped in rather late, but I was in the war nonetheless, and suffered like many others, from the great dislocation between fear and greed, the timeless balance of things that seeks our destruction vis a vis deleterious and ruinous downward pin action.
Back in December of 2017, I ebulliently thrusted myself dead smack into the centre of the bitcoin universe, spending countless hours versing myself in the language of this new and exciting paradigm. The crypto sector was near record highs and just about everyone I knew was keenly fixated on the next big winner on any number of nefarious crypto exchanges. Men clad in medical attire, sword to the duty of upholding the scared promise to protecting people from ailments to the best of their abilities, were thrusted like lambs into a fucking meat shredder — producing nothing but air in its stead. Financial men of serious means leapt into the asset class with full vigor, cigars lit and brandy in hand, only to be unceremoniously disbanded and chopped off at the legs and then rolled downhill in a barrel made from garbage.
I never intended to lose money in this asset class — but lose I did. From November of 2017 until now, my losses stand at a stout 50% my original investment — a rather tame downdraft all things considered. Back in the early days of 2018, I had dispatched resources to cobble together and market intelligence platform for cryptos, but I’ve abandoned said ideas in favor of equities — specifically because cryptos have proven to be nothing more than shit and I’ve lost half my original investment. Whilst losing money might be something of a sin to some of you, the religious type or perhaps those with something to hide or prove, I see it as a cleaning, a correction that was needed to set me upon the right path.
All of those fucking white papers were read and many of their fictions were believed to be true — but that’s okay — because there isn’t any harm in reading or believing. As empathic aspirational creatures, it is in our DNA to learn and hope — dream of traveling a path that might lead to a better life. While traveling this path, one should expect the occasional alligator bite and loss of limbs — all part and parcel of living in a fast and big world.
Anyone care about this anymore? There is nothing but depression and apathy in the crypto space now, one would think a turn for the better might be coming soon. Buying now, at these levels, is equal to catching a falling knife. I suppose if you’re a true believer — this is one of the levels worth exploring. Problem is, the stake holders in these ICOs are weak and subject to capitulation, worse than what we’ve bore witness to in the equity markets, where regulations tame the indecorous beast. Over in crypto world, men are leveraged out with their credit cards, living out of cardboard boxes, betting it all, just for a better life.
It is truly pathetic.
Total market cap is now ~$300 billion, down more than $500 billion from the highs. That’s real money and criminal organizations around the world might need to pull in the reigns on their discretionary spending in the luxury space as a result.
Italians do not like to be subjugated, which is why, traditionally, they band together to shoot enemies in the face. With the rejection of the 5 star movement’s candidate for finance minister, Italy is now in a constitutional crisis — which may lead to elections, which may lead to a referendum on the EU.
It’s over EuroFAGS. It was only a matter of time before people got sick of your perverted schemes. Now it’s time to hang from the noose.
On Sunday, Italy’s president rejected the nomination of a eurosceptic, Paolo Savona, for the economics ministry by the far-right League and anti-establishment 5-Star Movement because Savona had previously said Italy should leave the euro zone.
But now the two parties, who were rivals in the March vote, are weighing whether to join forces ahead of a fresh election seen in the autumn or early next year.
“The upcoming elections will not be political, but instead a real and true referendum … between who wants Italy to be a free country and who wants it to be servile and enslaved,” League leader Matteo Salvini said on Monday.
“Today Italy is not free; it is occupied financially by Germans, French and eurocrats.”
The euro, bonds and stocks initially rallied on Monday after President Sergio Mattarella vetoed Savona’s nomination, but relief turned to fear over snap elections. The gap between Italian and German 10-year bond yields, a measure of Italian risk, widened to its highest in over four years.
“The election is going to resemble a referendum, de facto, on the European Union and the euro,” said Francesco Galietti, head of political risk consultancy Policy Sonar in Rome. “It’s an existential threat for the entire euro zone.”
If Italians were to cast a protest vote against the EU and euro at fresh elections, it would deliver the bloc’s biggest challenge since Britain voted to quit the union two years ago and raise questions about the future of the single currency.
The net result of all this chaos has been sharply lower equity prices, especially in periphery country — the PIGS. Portugal fell by 1.74% and Italy was lower by more than 2% — with heinous losses found amongst the banks. On the downside, Finecobank, Banca Generali, and Mediobanca led stocks lower with 6-7% drops.
In spite of all that shit, US futures are indicating more gains. The Nasdaq is +27, Dow +38. Over in Brazil, hellfire is being raised and their markets are lower by nearly 3% — thanks to some stupid truckers strike that has crippled the backward Amazonian nation.
When I was a wee lad, I used to attempt various methods of creating wealth, mostly esoteric blends of insanity commingled with high octane testosterone driven gambits. I mostly continue that tradition in my discretionary account today — and that’s what you see on the face of this site — the branding that I’ve created is one of a hideous monster.
However, in the real world, I am all about legacy, building things that can scale and last, and I’ve limited my exposure to investment ideas that cannot be repeated.
Some people find success in trading technicals, more power to them. The main test for me is whether or not my investment philosophy can be taught and learned in a single day, using machine learning and the algorithms in Exodus — and then my lessons extended and improved upon by future generations. By no means do I think I am a great investor. As a matter of fact, I am somewhat middling. But where I lack in fast swing trading, I make up for in other places — and no one has been able to build an advanced mean reversion/market intelligence platform, as well thought out as me, which could be used to create and test strategies — period, end of story.
My journey with the platform is really only beginning. This past year I have implemented brand new data feeds, super fast quotes, new metrics, and lots of other efficiencies have been added that most take for granted. Over the next 12 months, I intend tp upgrade the software to fully automate my quantitative processes and also permit users to do the same with their strategies.
As a former investment advisor for 18 years, I can say, emphatically, you don’t need an investment advisor to manage money for you. With the tools available to investors today on a retail level, there’s no reason why you can’t do this yourselves and forgo all of the extraneous expenses that are incumbent with hiring a series 65 jackass.
Here’s what I’m talking about, with regards to modeling. This is my quant model in Exodus — which is subject to alteration based upon prevailing winds of change that are inherent with chasing alpha. For the past 3 months, it has crushed the SPY by nearly 8%. This is the raw version of it. There are other steps that further break this down and it’s first filtered by market cap — but you get the point.
Why can’t you spend a week learning this and understanding how a portfolio should be structured and then building your own models that beat the SPY? Sure, the models might need to be changed over time — but that’s why you have software to do it for you. What would you rather do, spend 500 hours per month thumbing thru charts that “look good” or creating a repeatable process that can be produced in a few minutes and a click of a mouse?
