Booked the Gain

I sold CHK this morning for a 15.5% win. Annualized, I’d be up 1,000% by year end.

Over in Exodus — many of the lads held onto my pick CIFS and are enjoying 100% wins. I, regrettably, sold before it got going; but I’m not upset in the least. Even though I sold at $2, I am comforted by the fact that I am able to pick these type of winners on a continuous basis. I’ve been doing this shit all my life. Missing out on one 300% win is disheartening — but it isn’t going to make me sad or anything like that.

It’ll only motivate me to find the next one — which I am in the process of doing right now.

Good news FUCKERS.

Our eminence is on the verge of yet another win, of largess magnitude. Words cannot express how overwhelmed I am with pure fucking joy — especially since I am long TZA. I expect to get zapped at the open. I do, however, have way more longs than just the 5% weighting in TZA. Plus, I have a mind to get right back into the swing of things, diving into the riskiest stocks with reckless abandon — begging for the Gods to ruin me.

Source: Bloomberg

The U.S. and China are close to a trade deal that could lift most or all U.S. tariffs as long as Beijing follows through on pledges ranging from better protecting intellectual-property rights to buying a significant amount of American products, two people familiar with the discussions said.

Chinese officials made clear in a series of negotiations with the U.S. in recent weeks that removing levies on $200 billion of Chinese goods quickly was necessary to finalize any deal, said the people, who weren’t authorized to talk publicly about the deliberations. That’s the amount the Trump administration imposed after China retaliated against the U.S.’s first salvo of $50 billion in tariffs that kicked off the eight-month trade war.

One of the remaining sticking points is whether the tariffs would be lifted immediately or over a period of time to allow the U.S. to monitor whether China is meeting its obligations, the people said. The U.S. wants to continue to wield the threat of tariffs as leverage to ensure China won’t renege on the deal, and only lift the duties fully when Beijing implemented all parts of the agreement.

My best guess — those two people would be Kudlow and Trump.

Dow futures are +115. I am long some NTLA — because the Druids love gene editing and CRISPR. I expect a huge run in CRISPR stocks soon. The chimeras aren’t going to make themselves, you know.

Last month, the US economy added the most jobs in 11 months. Next week Friday, the US economy is expected to have added 185k jobs in February with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Average hour earnings are expected to have gained steam, up 0.3% vs 0.1% the month prior. All of this is coming due on the tail end of one of the best rallies known to mankind — certainly the best start to a new year in a very long time.

Recently, government bonds have been creeping, ever so quietly.

So what have we learned over the past 4 months?

Markets do not like trade wars. Markets do not like rates rising too high — because we’ve learned they, at some point, apply too much pressure to the leveraged loan markets and others areas of the bond market — specifically junk.

If the 10yr breaks 3.00% next week and the jobs numbers are better than expected, you will begin to hear rumors and innuendo that the Fed is back on the table — them and their disgusting dot plot.

Markets don’t like dot plots, or anything that increases the borrowing costs of the trillions owed across a sundry of industries.

Thus far, we’ve V shaped up — done the improbable and mostly every person that I know is shocked by this occurrence.

My best guess — shit gets resolved by St. Patrick’s Day. We’ll all be drunk by then anyway — but I suspect we’ll have a clearer view of what this economy is looking like by then, even under the influence of some Irish whiskey and burdened by fatty meats.

Nice day, especially the early fake out and subsequent rally.

Here’s the point.

We’re still at the maximum level of overhead resistance, predicated upon the price memory that was endured several months ago.

Because of this, I am hesitant to be very long, and I have a TZA hedge. Overall, the market is fine and not in any imminent danger of breaking down. This TZA position of mine is an anticipatory trade and low conviction.

Have a great weekend.

Top picks: CHK, NTLA

I bought both NTLA and VNRX — seeing this massive breakout in biotechs today.

Exodus isn’t trying to predict the future. Only retards and Google can do that. What the platform is designed to do is identify stress points in the market and individual stocks and then track those stocks for 10 days — attempting to find patterns.

Just the other day, Exodus member Moab tweeted this, showcasing the overbought signal on TSLA.

$TSLA Average returns over 12M after flagging OB. pic.twitter.com/E7qlKO3mYM

— Moab Man (@moabman5) February 27, 2019

Here is the net result.

Any questions?

I sold my NUGT several says ago and all of my miners yesterday — all for profit might I add — because the technicals have turned grim for gold. What has changed in recent weeks?

We were long gold for two reasons.

1. Risk aversion, negative correlation to SPY.
2. The specter of actual inflation and a hands off Fed.

In recent weeks, not only has the market roared back, but we’ve heard hints from Apple suppliers, like AMKR, that things are getting better in the economy. If that’s the case, then the following things should occur.

The 10 yr bond yield should rise to 3.2% again, presently at 2.75%.
The Fed will come back into the fray, eager to hike rates.
Inflation, as defined in terms of wage growth, will be offset by rising expenses in healthcare, carrying costs for loans, real estate values etc.

In other words, the more you get to thinking about actual inflation, the more you understand that 97% of the country will likely be stuck in a world devoid of it — thanks to rising cost of living. There is inflation, in a sense, but it’s being gobbled up whole by asshole corporations and enjoyed and seen in their quarterly earnings reports. The best hope for the working class to have a little extra money to spend at the olde shopping mall is for a COMPLETE FUCKING MELTDOWN and reduction in rate, followed by government stimulus.

Gold is dead — because the market and the economy is alive.

Even if my thesis was wrong, you have no business being long now — given the break down in the technicals.

This is a curious announcement by Amazon — detailed plans to launch a dozen or so grocery store in a variety of cities — at a cheaper price point than WholeFoods.

Wait a second — they own WholeFoods. So what the fuck are they doing?

Here’s a better question.

Do you think Amazon will launch a chain of small stores, like Trader Joe’s or launch BIG ASS stores, like Costco? What do you think Amazon wants to do — go big or go small?

If they went big, those stores could also double serve as storage facilities for their other businesses. If they go small, it doesn’t even move the needle for them — very Un-Amazon like.

Shares of KR are down 3.2%, while COST is -1%, and WMT down less than 1%.

Clearly the groceryFAGS aren’t remotely concerned right now. We’ll see about that.

In spite of being cautious about the market here, my Quant portfolio is 100% long growth stocks for the month of March. This is the road I’ve chosen to travel with my longer term investments and I could not be happier.

During January, the Quant was all sourced from a value pool, returning just 6.6% for the month. In February, the portfolio was 50/50 sourced from value and growth. It ended up 7.2% for February. Now for March, the portfolio is 100% long growth — because the rules that I set forth demand the investments source from the best performing assets classes, in this case growth vs value.

All in all, gains edge towards +14% for the year and I have no complaints.

I have mechanized hedges in place that get triggered, should markets tumble — such as allocations into value, bonds, and gold. This fund does not short sell stocks — mainly because the re-assessment period is once per month.

The stated goal?

Created a mechanized approach to asset management that is repeatable, can be passed down to future generations, using AI and big ass data, for the expressed purpose of crushing the SPY — all from the comforts of my beach house.

I bought TZA at the open, probing here because $175 on the Qs is my target.