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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Getting Back to the FAGBOX is Fun, Easy to Do

Listen to me now. We’re going back to the FAGBOX.

Feel free to get long with impunity. Nothing can stop you. Once back inside the box, or just below it, you’ll come into heavy selling and likely get your face blow off clean. If I were you, and thank God I am not, I’d play the market for this eventuality.

Bet against the man in the time capsule, lose everything — wife, cars, house, kids etc.

I know futures are lower; but that means literally nothing. Futures will be jimmying higher by the opening tick-tock. Men with stupid hats and ugly ties will position billions into stocks, barreling into the New Year. Those same people will be executed come 2019. Meanwhile, times are good and the goose is fat. Do not lament Le Fly because he’s swifter, more odious than you. Play the box, but do not dare enter the box. The box is for chopping only.

As you were.

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ONE THOUSAND FUCKING POINTS: SHORTS POLEAXED; PANIC BUYING ENSUES

I doubled up on HUBS, NEWR, and MDB. And I bought FAS — because I’m a banker now. I’m also up massively on all of my longs initiated today, such as LABU ($26.4). This is how I roll, and you’re nothing.

Ladies and gents, the year has been saved. I knew the great big beautifully breasted bull market would emerge, rise from the dead, and devour its enemies whole.

People need to STFU about downside action. This is yesterday’s news. Tomorrow’s news reads:

THE FLY WINS AGAIN.

Fuckers.

Top picks: HUBS, NEWR, MDB, FAS, FANG, LABU

UPDATE: Record point move in Dow. Bear market rallies are the best, believe me.

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Based Upon the Laws of Logic, You Must Go Long Now

If this is your workflow:

WTI
Oil stocks
High yield
Leverage loans

And all of that shit is higher, then you have to go long now.

Let me repeat and rephrase.

If your core thesis is bearish because oil was tanking, which was pressuring high yields, you cannot hold shorts now with price momentum sharply to the upside. This is why I sold DRIP and DRV this morning for 19% gains. Had I held them until now, I’d be flat.

I have opinions and feel strongly about the risks, but ultimately price action guides my decisions.

Having said that, I sold SJB and FXY, which were both bear market positions. WE ARE NOT IN A BEAR MARKET NOW. Ergo, I will be adding to positions into the bell, based off the large white candle being posted today. Odds are, we shoot higher tomorrow as well.

Bet against me, lose your fucking house.

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Fly Buy: $FANG

Not the one with Netflix in it, but the actual oil company FANG. Hands down, best producer in the space, vulgarly oversold.

Long here through $100.

45% cash.

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PREPARE FOR A MOST VIOLENT RALLY

Listen to me now plebs. Markets are fixing to cut off the dicks of those who are short it. Right now, they’re reading Zerohedge, trying to succor themselves with words of doom. But those words only serve to rock them to sleep, as a wave of buying comes in — drowning them where they sit.

This is a textbook reversal of a reversal. Ergo, I sold my SOXS position for a 5% intra-day gambit. This move is so big, it cannot be denied. My gains in LABU far outstripped my losses in SOXS — because healthcare is strongest in this move.

My basket of SAAS stocks, MDB, HUBS, and NEWR, should outperform the market — with both grace and vigor.

I will double up on these positions into the bell, providing we close at the highs.

There are times in life when accepting risk is the appropriate course of action. This is a good occasion to parlay some cash and into the fire. I might be wrong — but I severely doubt it.

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GET IN THE SILVER CAVE!

I like silver here and also gold. Because of this, I bought some AG, as it prepares to bust loose — Kool-Aid guy style.

Try to fucking stop me.

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AND, IT’S GONE

It was a nice rally. I hope you enjoyed it.

In response to the psychotic pin action, I sold GE for a 9% loss and bought some SOXS — because NVDA is heading down by another 50%.

Additionally, to hedge against a possible triple head fake rally, I bought LABU — because biotech is strongest and the people who buy biotech are degenerates.

You cannot keep large positions in the tape like this, or trade stubbornly. The longs I accepted into my bosom this morning, might in fact, end up making me some money. But it’ll bet hard. That’s okay. Le Fly is used to toil.

Keep an eye on HYG. Markets are trading on a 1:1 correlation with it.

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Booked GAINZ; Took Some Floaters

I sold DRIP, DRV, and NUGT for +19%, +19.6%, and +9% gains. The last two were double sized positions and I’m incredibly grateful for having the foresight to get involved. With some of my cash, I stepped in and bought a basket of SAAS stocks: HUBS, NEWR, and MDB.

Will stocks catapult higher?

I’d like to believe so, at least for the week. But in the event I’m wrong, I have 50% cash to buttress my fall. I will be using price momentum to direct my investments. I might buy more, maybe not. The point is, when you have nice gains in leveraged ETFs, you have to book them.

Off to look for some new longs.

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Here’s What Will Happen Next

This bounce should stick throughout the week. We’re so oversold and sentiment is so bearish, it makes sense for us to enjoy a little respite. Short sellers should refrain from adding to positions and instead think about closing them out.

This will all resolve itself during the first week of January. See, people will celebrate the New Year’s in a tenuous manner, relived, yet scared, unsure what to do. It is my belief, might I add, stocks will be destroyed in the first week of 2019, rendering this little rally and the rally to come meaningless — smoke and mirrors in a clown house filled with trap doors.

It has been the worst December ever and there’s a reason for it. We don’t know exactly why stocks are down to this degree, only that it’s happening. I do believe this narrative fits the 2011 market panic and in some ways I reserve the right to completely change my mind about the crash to come. Plainly, I have a bias and I have my beliefs, but am old enough now to know those are just thoughts attached to emotions, the sum total of my life experiences coupled with an intangible intuition.

Ultimately, I am price sensitive and will use the direction of the market as the final arbiter.

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Trump Has Lost Control of Markets; Rogue Fed Fixed on Hiking Until Markets Drop Dead

Every downtick in stocks, Trump sweats a little more. You can tell he’s panicking, unsure how to rig markets higher. This is the problem with policy makers, always concerned with jimmy-rigging equities higher and not letting markets settle and do their thing. During periods of economic uncertainty, policy makers often instill more panic into investor psyche. The people who regularly help confidence are industry titans, legendary investors, influential analysts.

Alas, Trump lashing out again, like a baby.

“They’re raising interest rates too fast because they think the economy is so good. But I think that they will get it pretty soon,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, referring to the U.S. central bank.

“I have great confidence in our companies. We have companies, the greatest in the world, and they’re doing really well. They have record kinds of numbers. So I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy,” Trump said after speaking with U.S. troops deployed abroad via video conference.

Nasdaq futures are -19. Now is a good time to reduce shorts, move to cash, and wait for a breakout above a consolidation range, which is bound to establish soon. You can play the bounces, which should be sharp, but remember to book profits quickly. Any measurable gap lower tomorrow will likely be met with bottom pickers.

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