18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,599 Blog Posts

Incredulous Notion: Are the Semis Overbought Here?

I’m just going to throw this hand grenade into your lap and see what you do with it. Are the semis overbought here?

Let’s look at some stats.

YTD they’re up 56%.

Jan +6.3%
Feb +14%
March +6.1%
April down 4.8%
May +12.3%
June +14.6%

I know it’s a crazy idea since $NVDA, $ARM, $TSM and $MU should go up 5% per day for the rest of our lives, but what if people one day decided to sell? Also, what if one day any of those companies fell into a rut and missed a few quarters. Would that, dare I suggest, lead to a bit of a rout?

After all, the semis are up nearly 30% since May. Don’t you think they’re a little overbought? No?

At any rate, I’m not trying to urinate on your gay parade, since I too own them. I even bought some $TSM in a long term account today, feeeeeeling it might bust loose again and attain legendary status by joining the elite club of companies with market caps over $1t. However, just in case, I am also 12% weighted in $SOXS, short the semis, because God knows they’re deserving of a brief, yet somewhat malevolent, decline. That much I can assure you. There is going to be a most heinous drop soon and none of you are going to like it, lest you’re short of course.

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