Apple Warns Due to Coronavirus; Futures Slump

As the death toll mounts in China, so does the deleterious affects of a complete shut down of China on the global economy. The first big warning comes from China tonight, pointing to a somewhat modest 5% reduction in revenue expectations. Frankly, and this goes without saying, not much to concern yourselves with — if I don’t say so myself.

• Apple said Monday it does not expect to meet its second-quarter forecast for revenue.
• The company cited global supply constraints for iPhones and lower Chinese demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.
• Apple said in late January that it expected revenue of $63 billion to $67 billion in its fiscal second quarter.
• As soon as the Chinese get over this seasonal flu of sort, naturally everyone will shoot out from their 100sq ft apartments and into the Apple stores to buy more wares. Clearly this is a temporary phenomena and we should price in the eventual normalization of business, as soon as possible. Dare I say, Nasdaq futures being down 50 now is 100 Nasdaqs too cheap?

I don’t know what the fuss is about anyway. China has been smacked with trade wars and other Trumpion maladies for the past 3 years. Surely they’re not gonna let a little cold get in the way of their pre-determined +6.3% GDP. Will they?

Japan raised their sales tax to 10% and it caused the economy to fucking crash thru the floorboards. As a result, more nothing.

Nasdaq fits are +35.

Japan’s economy suffered its biggest contraction in five years in the final quarter of 2019, slowed by a sales-tax hike and a destructive typhoon.

Gross domestic product for the world’s third-biggest economy shrank an annualized 6.3% from a quarter earlier, according to data released by the Cabinet Office on Monday. The average forecast of 34 economists surveyed by the Japan Center for Economic Research was for a 3.55% fall.

Consumer spending fell 11.1% after the national sales tax was raised in October to 10% from 8%. During the same month, Typhoon Hagibis ravaged a large swathe of the country.

Capital spending declined 14.1% and exports slipped 0.4% due to the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war.

The economists surveyed in the JCER poll expect a rebound in the January to March quarter, projecting that GDP will rise 0.54%. But uncertainty over the impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak has cast a shadow over the Japanese economy, especially with China’s slowdown expected to worsen.

“The sharp drop in output after October’s sales tax hike supports our view that Japan’s economy will shrink this year,” Capital Economics wrote in a note after the data was published. “But after today’s release, our forecast of a 0.2% drop in GDP in 2020 looks optimistic.”

“We can expect a gradual improvement,” Yasutoshi Nishimura, minister for economic and fiscal policy, said after the data was published, adding that the impact of the tax hike was not as big as the previous increase in 2014.

Who gives a shit right? Let’s get tis fucking party started already. Sadly, markets are closed tomorrow, as we make believe to give a fuck about George Washington.

I’ve had a death in the family, losing a loved one to cancer. Will be out of the office until Sunday. Feel free to talk amongst yourselves.

We all come in different sizes and shades, varietals that are both beautiful and monstrous. In my experiences, I have noticed three type of people. There are those who fuck and drink without remorse, truly idiots, cruising though life without a care in the world. Because of their arch-ignorance, they’re unable to see the flaw in their thinking and instead lash out at others for being “stupid”, often deriding those with formal education as being the real idiots — happy and content with their station, only taking time out from drinking and fucking to complain about the lack of variety at their local booze store.

The second type of person is one with flaws, but is aware of these flaws and it manifests itself in one of two ways.

Self improvement via physical training/formal education or self-hatred and a wasted life. These people can go either way, into a life of self-abuse/crime or propel themselves via grit to do something extraordinary.

The third type rests at the top of the human food chain, thanks in large part to generations of carefully planned eugenics. Although successful and intelligent, often times these people are most upset with their station — due to lack of purpose and zeal. Having things given to them at an early age isn’t exactly empowering and being able to see things for what they truly are, instead of what they might be, can at times be depressing. The maniacal machinations of these people, often helped by drugs, can manifest itself on a large scale: wars, corporate chicanery, propaganda, generational abuse of power.

These are the pillars of society that markets are built on, one class of person leaning on the other and vice versa. That free healthcare isn’t going to pay for itself, just like that new Tesla car doesn’t get made without hands. The ebb and flow of good vs corrupt is sometimes shrouded by the fog of media and there are people who truly believe everyone is the same. Nothing could be further from the truth. But it’s not all despair — because happiness cannot be bought and sold like a stock or a crypto. The ideal life is one fueled by curiosity and contentment. Sometimes the fight for something greater, the insatiable desire to become powerful or wealthy, leads to the most despair. There is a delicate balance between drive and the path to ruin. Some of us top at 16 years old, most popular kid in high school — star athlete. Some of us keep growing stronger and wiser, well into our later years. We all have an expiration date, not just for our bodies but our spirit.

One of my favorite authors, probably my favorite, F. Scott Fitzgerald, was haunted by his early successes and considered himself to be spent by his mid- 30s, constantly lamenting his age and how he could never repeat the halcyon days of the roaring 20s. His thinking was so toxic it caused him to run down a path of self-destruction and an early demise. What he lacked was perspective. Money ruled over him because of his caprices and that strain caused him to write articles instead of books — which in turn caused him to have even more financial strain.

I don’t know the secret to happiness, but I do know what causes ruin in most men: reckless spending, booze, meaningless sex, lack of perspective.

Sorry for the unusual introspective post.

I took one trade today, a day trade in BEAM, +8%.

Elon Musk is bowling on shorts again, this time by way of small, unnecessary secondary. The company raised a small sum of money, perhaps to build more flamethrowers, raising $2 billion. Pre-market the stock had dropped $30 because they were wrong. Now the stock is sprinting higher and shorts, once again, are living inside of a custom made hell.

I don’t get the fervor, people. Stop betting against innovators.

Separately, the coronavirus took a serious turn for the worse, with more than 15k people diagnosed positive as of yesterday. The ripple affects of isolating the world’s second largest economy, the factory of the world, is bound to have some sort of impact. It probably isn’t being priced in yet — because people are too busy pricing in the recovery. However, if you get down to brass tacks, this virus is of course a NET NEGATIVE. Will stocks finally get bogged the fuck out, smoking bulls in long Chinese pipes? Only time will tell. But for now, it looks like more nothing.

The Dow is down 70, but my Quant is +70bps. Go figure.

The past week has been splendid for everyone except all of Asia, presently maligned by the plague. Here in the states, we wear big hats and walk with hard canes — cordially greeting one another at the theatre, gleefully checking in on our account statements which show growth in our stock and crypto portfolios.

Over the past week I’ve been buying Ethereum and find it to be a wonderfully acceptive side hobby of mine — placing large sums of dollars into something totally irrelevant and without purpose. I simply buy it for the gains and then I whimsically move on from that and screen for stocks to buy and those go up too. I haven’t checked the market for the past two hours, but I am sure it went higher, say nearly 300 points? Am I close?

Everything about living in these times is grande. Even the cocaine is pink.

Into the bell, I gazed upon my DAO double down placed yesterday with pride, knowing full well I have no business in the stock — let alone at a 10% weighting. Then again, I’m merely a cog in a giant fantasy wheel, lingering around for scraps left by large machines who pervert grab stocks like a sunbeam on Irish skin.

Just when you thought the market might stall or pause for a sip of water, BAM! — another 200 points in your fucking face. See pal, that’s what this market is all about — like a personal ATM machine that you can use anytime you want for money.

Want to buy your wife a diamond bracelet for Valentine’s Day and a little light on funds? No problem. Shoot on over to the stock exchange and withdraw $10k from it. The only crime here is ordinary folk aren’t aware of the ease and grace of this market and have instead opted for a life of abject poverty and disgrace.

I can tell you now that life isn’t always joyful and there are things that upset The Fly a great deal. Like you, I want to destroy and kill large swaths of the population and subjugate my enemies to torture camps in Easter Europe (no nazi). But I cannot — because it’s bad juju and I’d much rather go to the stock exchange and withdraw a bunch of money.

For example, yesterday I had this DAO stock tank on me by 25%, going beneath my basis of $25. I had two choices, book the 10% loss or buy more. Easy choice — I doubled down and now I’m break even, as the stock sprints higher. Life is easy, good, and also grande.

For the day, I bought several stocks, a little of this and a little of that. Who’s keeping track, eh? I cannot lose, easy peasy chicken greasy.

I need to be on the record here with this one for the sake of posterity. One thousand years from now, advanced humanoids will display iBankCoin blogs in one of their intergalactic museums like we do caveman sketchings today and I need to make sure those freaks understand what the hell is going on here now.

There is a misfit group of like-minded monsters out there and on Twitter, led by men like Jim Chanos, discussing the PENDING bankruptcy of Tesla — as if that shit was in the process of happening. You listen to these people and you’d think the stock price was at $0.25 about to delist. They’ve even taken a hash-tag on Twitter to unite with one another #TSLAQ — implying the stock would one day be delisted and Elon Musk disgraced and probably disheveled.

WRONG.

Look at the fucking stock. Look at it — higher by 250% the past 6 months.

Also, look at their beautiful cars. Look at it.

While not perfect, for an American auto-manufacturer, they are easily the best. Look at the fucking nonsense Ford and GM are spitting out these days from their Detroit shit-hole. Also, might I add, the Tesla doesn’t require fucking gasoline. I spend at least $250 per mo on premium fuel — roughly $3,000 a year. I’d like to never have to spend money on gas again. If this is the case, why doesn’t “The Fly” own a Tesla?

It’s a long story, a lot to do with my fucking Benz.

But trust me when I tell you, I will buy a Tesla one day and I might even buy some shares too.

Ironically, and it should be noted, I can’t recall ever owning TSLA, aside from timing the top last week in puts and turning $17k into $57k overnight. Nonetheless, stop hating on Elon Musk and his kick ass cars and flame-throwers.

As you know yesterday I lamented the fact I had booked 8 consecutive losing trades, after some gigantic fucking wins — the biggest ever. By the way, I am up 46% in my trading account for the year, so don’t even think about it. And that’s with 5% weighted positions.

At any rate, I booked the following trades.
Granted, those are tiny dicked wins, but I needed them. Yesterday I bought some of this DAO because China and bore witness to it skyrocket up 20% inside of an hour or two. Like a fool I did not sell and now the stock has collapsed. I am actually down from my basis of $25 now.

Interesting conundrum. Do I cut the loss now and move on or average down? I don’t like the business, so an average down would be based purely on price. Is this capitulation or can it go lower another $5 tomorrow? I will have to think about it.

Aside from that, I bought 4 new stocks today — trying to keep up with the Jonses here.

I used to concern myself with the machinations of Wall Street.

“How the fuck did that happen? Wasn’t anyone paying attention?”

But after the financial crisis and definitely after the Greek crisis of 2012, I concluded that Wall Street no longer existed in the traditional sense and instead was domiciled by speed jerking lunatics who didn’t care about anything but upward momentum. You might look at the CoronaVirus business and wonder why investors aren’t freaking out. How is it possible for Trump’s trade war vs China to not only not have an affect on stocks — but if anything a bullish one? After Trump got done with China and their beautiful economy, the Chinese must’ve fucked themselves with this Bat-Soup virus and now their entire country is being treated like the plague. Business must be horrendous. In NYC and San Fran, Chinese eatery sales are down 50-70%.

Aside from crude and copper markets, one would never know there was a plague going around. By God, futures are sharply higher again and AMD just caught an upgrade! I know what you’re thinking — “what about the semi supply chain? Isn’t everything made there?”

Shut up. We’ll have none of that nonsense. Go wash your mouths out with soap. We’re pricing in the pricing in of all of that and now we’re pricing in a normalization of business and then after that — we’re pricing in a post plague boom. This is why stocks are higher.