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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

POSITIONING FOR CHINESE WINS

China has already won — you just haven’t accepted it yet. Their form of government, immigration policy, and intelligence has all but guaranteed they will, at some point, occupy California and subjugate those people to very hash living conditions.

Five hundred years hence, people will say “there used to be Europeans who lived in North America” and rumors of a primitive native type who ate corn and shot bow and arrows. The next century will be marked by the ascendancy of China. You’d have to be a complete moron not to see it and there is nothing you can do to stop it.

Having said that, I’m just looking for a morsel of a move higher in Chinese burrito stocks, with rapid acceleration at 3pm.

Fun fact: hourly seasonality for IWM during June favors 12pm-1pm, with a 90% win rate.

I am presently down 75bps, thank to holding RIDE over the weekend, entreated with wondrous news this AM of both CEO and CFO chased out of the company.

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OMG ELON LOVES BITCOIN AGAIN

Over the weekend Elon Musk announced Tesla would once again accept BTC as payment for his ugly cars once there is sufficient evidence that coal isn’t being used to mine. On this news, cryptos have been flying ever since, led by BTC. As a result of cryptos running, equity proxies for cryptos are in play, such as MSTR, MARA, RIOT, EQOS and the rest of the gang.

I could go many different ways from here and talk extreme shit about Elon and even worse the people who are now buying BTC based upon his caprices — but I will not. The fact is, as far as I am concerned, cryptos are a fine buy down here and should be considered attractive for the foreseeable future.

Sure, there are mentally addled people buying CUM ROCKET and we can never truly get rid of those people. Even after they bankrupt themselves — they’ll come back in another form to do injury to themselves once again. In every booming market, there are always clowns to be-clown themselves.

Alas, I feeeeeel ETH is a supreme buy here and at any price under $3k. Also, and this goes without saying, I feeeeel it will double from now until Xmas.

As for markets, oils and crypto proxies look best — although I am hopeful for more follow through in other names aside from AMC — which I sold today for gains.

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Life at House Fly is Both Charmed and Progressing

I took a long hike today amidst treacherous rocks and felled trees — did it until I felt my legs were about to fall off. I grilled some chicken and had some salad, drank copious amounts of water and then cleaned up and made everything neat and tidy. I live smart and efficiently and always look for better ways to live. I don’t consumer errantly and I certainly do not surround myself with reprobates. I listen to good music made by smart people and avoid degeneracy as my top priority. I barely drink and if I do — I do so in a manner that comports with the standards of being a gentleman.

See, I trade for a living and create software for traders and risk my own money and the money of my family in markets that are not only unpredictable, but largely non-sensical. I cannot afford to take it easy or not be industrious and I certainly can never succumb to the pressures of post-modernism and become subservient to anything but my own interests.

I don’t consider myself to be successful — but on my way towards something greater by doing something that I love. I am never jealous of others, but I do admire them. I am never a victim of anything, because I am a willing participant in almost all of the short comings I’ve had. No one put a gun to my head and said “BUY XIV — and be sure not to read the prospectus.”

I am in the process of losing my ego and do not feeeeel I am better than anyone else. I do, however, acknowledge that I have special talents that are in fact valuable; but these talents aren’t exactly curing COVID-19. In my small world, they are valuable, so I leverage them and genuinely hope that I can help others live better.

I am never insulted by comments directed at me, nor do I feel a sense of aggrandizement when people compliment me. I am always appreciative of the time people give me and the actions they perform for my benefit and hope to repay them in kind.

I consider myself to be a work in progress and try to absorb as much information about things that I can — always curious, always open to the idea that I can be wrong. I do not like to think conspiratorial and find it to be a depressant; but I am also a natural cynic and regularly fight against it to trust others.

In my earlier years I used to feeeeel people were bad, and everyone was rotten and the world was doomed — but as I grew older and wise and checked my ego — I realized that was a reflection of my own insecurities. Some people are dreadful and irredeemable — but on the whole humans are great, creators of beautiful and convenient things. The vast majority of the people I know and have come across in life mean well and are fun to be around. I have no reason to not be bullish on mankind.

Some of my lifetime goals include reading every notable classic novel, all important works by influential philosophers, watching every classic film ever made including foreign, exploring all great music from as many cultures that I can learn about, creating repeatable systems for my investments that will outlive my lifespan and to create immense value for self-directed investors.

As a side hobby, I enjoy learning about DNA and how it pertains to life and the complexities of evolution.

My overall mantra on living is to do it smart and to make sure I am living a meaningful life that contributes to society. It has taken me decades to figure some stuff out and 45 yr old Fly talking to 25 yr old Fly would be like talking to a primate. Life is long and there are many years from now until the end so use them intelligently — first by accepting the fact that you know hardly anything and even if you think you know something — perhaps there’s something you’re missing.

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JOIN STOCKLABS

I was out of pocket most of the day and it cost me about 180bps. I was down 120bps at the open and was not able to access my fucking phone until after 10am and was then entreated with losses of 300bps. When I got back, I was only able to trade for 45mins, so I made a variety of trades, mostly meme stocks, and like a lunatic held them — closing out the day -185bps. I could’ve, in fact, traded back to green without a doubt. I am positively locked in and nothing can stop me from manifesting my destiny.

For those curious about Stocklabs — we have a YouTube channel up where my CUSTOMER SUCCESS REP uploads his Zoom calls. Free free to peruse.

For the week, I was up 6%, pressing YTD gains to 225%.

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Indeud

I am off to a magnificent week, slightly tarred by a pre-market drubbing in APTO however. Alas the virtues of position sizing reveals itself once again. Had I been overzealous in the name and collected more shares, my morning would be inexorably worse off. As it stands, down 28%, I am off just 120bps pre market. Overall, I am +16% for the month and am quite pleased with this pastoral gentleman’s view.

I will be out of pocket today, not that any of you fucks care, as my daughter is graduating high school today. It is a fine day to trade, so enjoy yourselves in my stead. Please try to make as much as you can without exerting much effort, in the God’s favorite sport of speculation.

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TRADING IS A BLOOD SPORT

Up 125bps now after trading in and out of several hot biotechs. It was a slow start, down 40bps and then flat and now we are cooking with grease. I find, at least in this market, nothing is able to stop me from making money. My methods are repeatable and I rarely deviate.

I take 5% position and usually cut losses at 4%, 10% max. My gains are usually around 3-10% and I depend on the quantity of gains vs the size of them. I never ever trade options and I rarely do anything to risk the franchise. I view my trades like I did girlfiends in high school — expendable. While it’s nice to see TSLA maxis boast of their gains, I am smart enough to understand I do not have patience of buy and hold and I also know finding monster winners like that is rare.

I was up more than 400% last year and +231% as of right now for 2021. I see no reason to change and one thing I’ve learned the past two years is there is far easier and quick money to be made day trading than swing or buy and hold.

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Taking it Easy, Trading Slow

No collapse today. Here is the breadth breakdown in the market, via Stocklabs. Too strong in big caps to see any tangible drop in markets today. I sold my TZA and reshuffled again, down about 35bps for the day.

My daughter is graduating HS tomorrow, so I will be out of pocket. I cannot believe where the years went and I know it’s cliche to say that but fuck. I sometimes wish I could make them all (my 3 kids) little again — keep them about 8 years old forever. Life was better then — but that’s just me being selfish. Going forward, as my kids grow older, I will try my best to empower them and help them into adulthood; but as you know, life has a way of being the ultimate teacher, so sometimes the best help is to leave them alone. My entire life has been about raising my family and trying to give them a better life, better than what I had, and to raise happy children who could thrive in the world. This is a lot harder than it sounds due to all of the variables. Sometimes when you bottle them up and keep them in a bubble, it works the opposite of what you intended, so there has to be a balance. Either way, I am both sad and excited to see her graduate, as it marks an end of an era and beginning of a new one where she will be traveling far away to college to pursue her dreams.

As for the market, trading slow as molasses dripping off a summer table in the middle of a corn field in July.

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LOOMINGS LOOM

I was distracted all day but still managed to trade to a gain of 1.2%. I am somewhat bearish on tomorrow’s open and hedged with TZA, XLU and VXX.

The idea that we can freely escape the pangs of GME-DOGE cabal is laughable. Cum Rockets to your face — the Safemoon isn’t really safe. BEHOLD as we descend into hell and cycle fastidiously into the fires of summer.

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THE BOUNCE WILL BE FIERCE BUT BRIEF

We are all enjoying the splendor of the market again, reminiscent of a time and place when CHAMATH would post his returns on Twitter in between half naked photos of himself displaying his very weak and malformed legs. Those were the halcyon days of the market, late 2020, early 2021, when we all took to the market with great alacrity and made the short sellers cut off their own genitals. We’d walk into the office both proud and rich, fat from the gains enjoyed in the stock exchange. Whenever things went down, we laughed and bought more.

Then the rally become ribald in nature and the GME-DOGE losers ruined it all for everyone — mocking the stock Gods with their profane actions. Ever since then the market has been in disarray, until the past two weeks where we have once again enjoyed a respite and gains on a scale nothing short of industrial. Alas, all good things end and bad things continue eternally. Like we saw in 2014, when the great tech collapse nearly cut off my own genitalia, we are bouncing now and hard but it will be short lived and once it ends, providing you are still long CHAMATH styled stocks, you will rue the day your Mother conceived you.

Heed my advice now and forever be grateful, milk this rally to the best of your abilities and be gone at the first sign of trouble, for when it ends it will end for the balance of 2021.

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EXTREME GRANDEUR UNDERWAY

In August of last year I took a sum of $100k and dedicated it towards trading only with Stocklabs tools. This entailed eschewing any semblance of technical analysis, relying solely on our mean reversion and more importantly volume tools. My trading changed drastically, preferring day trading over swing trading. At first users inside SL were taken aback by the sheer volume of trades and flip floppe characteristics of this trading pattern.

Ten months later I can show you what people inside SL see every day, my portfolio laid bare for users to shadow or analyze, 5x since inception, +222% YTD. Rules are simple: 5% sized position, keep losses under 10%, preferably at -4%, and only trade stocks and apply leverage when needed (rare).

Is it the platform or me?

I have always been good — but not this good. Best way to describe SL is it takes my already potent talents and places it on steroids boosted by fucking rockets. Nothing escapes me and my trading is more prolific than ever. I cannot see a scenario where Stocklabs cannot improve your trading. This is both a sales pitch and testimonial — because I am more of a trader than a businessman and can only tell you of my experiences as I document my trading career live on iBC.

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