I Made “The Switch”

It was a very difficult decision for me. Mrs. Fly mocked me for months, while coercing me to “make the switch.” Today, much to my delight, I smashed my fucking Blackberry device with a snow shovel and replaced it with an iPhone—just in time for the iBC iphone App.

Seriously, the Blackberry is retarded. There is no comparison.

The recent numbers out of Research In Motion Limited (USA) [[RIMM]] ] were terrific, but I can’t endorse the stock, as an investment, any longer.

In Fly’s domain, there are Apple tv’s, itouches, ipods, iphones and laptops. Whenever I travel back in time, say 10 years ago, I see myself with Dell, Motorola, Creative Technologies and Toshiba. Like financial blogs, competing consumer technologies represent a pure form of Darwinism.

O’bama drives republicans crazy, mainly due to his laughable resume and under qualifications to be President. Nonetheless, I must admit, “The O” has been good to “The Fly,” thus far. I did well during the Bush years too. However, despite making insane coin shorting stocks in 2008, I prefer making money going long, mainly because “I am into civilization surviving.”

Many of you throw child like fits over “The O,” with regards to his “communist ways” and health care death claw. I am one callous motherfucker. I don’t give a shit about health care. We’re all going to die one day anyway. Who gives a shit about health care? Man the fuck up and accept your future heart attack like a man.

Men wearing brown burlap sweaters, trimmed with royal blue satin ribbons, discuss real serious stuff on the internet. These people discuss matters of vast importance, as if people gave two gay camels about them. Like I said before, join a think tank and let the real men trade this market. We don’t need the likes of you mucking up our swagger, here on Wall St.

My point is this: forget about politics, for it is the sandbox of arm chair generals.

With regards to this market: Adding to my Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] position is paying immediate dividends today. And, once again, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] is squeezing higher. I’ve been visiting a ridiculous amount of stores in NYC, Staten Island and all over New Jersey this holiday season. Everywhere I go the clerks tell me they cannot stock the Keurig’s fast enough. My best guess, GMCR will blow the barnyard doors off eps estimates, sending the stock close to $100. At the point, I will likely sell a large portion of my position, then move onto something else.

At the moment, my top positions are Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] , [[MWW]] , Lennar Corporation [[LEN]] and SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] . In total, I am long 25 stocks, none representing more than 10% of my holdings. Going into the New Year, I intend to raise some cash, at least more than the 3% I have now.

Jake and I are having a little debate about stocks, in the previous thread. While he may be correct about the ultimate destiny of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] ; it is silly to single out any stock as a “fad.”

Unless the company is a conglomerate, mega cap corporation, pretty much all stocks are fads, in the sense that businesses get hot then cool off, like MSFT or DELL. They come and they go. Big companies and former Dow 30 components, Xerox Corporation [[XRX]] and Eastman Kodak Company [[EK]] , would have never been labeled “fads” 15 years ago. In hindsight, they most certainly were fads, albeit long lasting ones, if by “fad” you mean the stock sucked (and still sucks) dick.

If we are to label GMCR a fad, then it’s important to view the company over a longer time frame, in order to get a feel for how its business is run.

Basically, the stock has been lifting off for 15 years. Perhaps in 5 years, the share price will suffer and Jake may be able to say “Ha, I told you so.” But, I’ll be long gone by then and onto another “fad stock,” where I will attempt to make another killing. The point is: some companies shine for 50 years, others for 5 days. If you were able to make 300% in FADDY, inside of 5 days, would your new car look any different?

So goes the spirit of the market.

What more can I say? The gains are rolling in and people are not annoying me any longer. Life could not be better.

You know what I am long, right? No need to rehash current and future victories.

Where is Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] going?

It’s going to $100 and more, just like Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] .

At any rate, “The Fly” must leave now, as Mrs. Fly has a fun-filled evening of holiday shopping planned for him, where he will spend/waste more money on distant relatives who deserve nothing—not even a K-Cup.

I bid you farewell.

I bought 2,000 Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] @ $68.70.

Disclaimer: If you buy CTRP because of this post, one day, you will die. And, you may lose money.

UPDATE: Classic Krull

All PPT member know my investing thesis is based upon three themes: tech via 4g names, commodities and foreign stocks. On occasion, because the market is so tempting, I venture off the plantation, trading in different sectors and industries—all represented by index’s created on The PPT. Recently, due to my fascination with Chinese slavery, I bought into [[HEAT]] , [[YONG]] and China Digital TV Holding Co., Ltd. [[STV]] . As soon as I bought them, I was richly rewarded with gains. Hell, it was so easy, I was thinking about raising sea lions and walking around in white robes, regardless of the temperature outside. I am sure you know what I mean.

Fast forward three weeks and I just sold them all for losses.

The lesson to be learned: Chicoms are volatile as a motherfucker. If your investment thesis is not related to Chicoms, there is no reason to sit around, waiting for them to rebound. With the proceeds, I will buy names that I am familiar with, names that I will add on dips, as opposed to blowing out.

With some of the proceeds, I bought Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] , Lennar Corporation [[LEN]] and SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]]

UPDATE: I added more SHLD, LEN and SD, crack addict, on the last vile, style. And, to no one’s surprise, I bought more Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] .

2009 was the year that crushed ideologues. If you hated Bernanke, Giethner, Paulson, bailouts, Goldman Sachs, Obama and the U.S. economy, during 2009, you got your face kicked in. In my profession, everyone has an opinion and everyone is right, at least they think they are. I know people who are short from March, who now reserve “the wobbly chair” for dinner, at their local mental institution.

See folks, the market is not about what you and I believe to be true. It is about being an animal. You cannot “think normal” and make serious coin. Believe you me, all of those uptight money managers, who made a gagillion dollars in the market, those fuckers are 10 minutes away from losing their marbles for good. Successful people are not “normal,” as defined by Joey Stampcollector, over at engine house #10. They might walk around in their $10,000 overcoats thinking “hey, I’m soooo normal,” but they’re not. More often than not, they’re assholes, sociopaths of the first order.

As for the market:

Tech stocks are ripping higher again, as well as commodities. On this dip, I like Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] and Research In Motion Limited (USA) [[RIMM]] . Into strength, I want to be long Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] and Lennar Corporation [[LEN]] in size. Oh shit! I’m already long those stocks in size.

Just when you though Plutonium Petey was fresh out of wins, BAM!, he hits you with another one.

Steel just eclipsed the magical $600 per tonne mark, pressing Goldman to upgrade United States Steel Corporation [[X]] today. We are in open field territory with the metals, sans the precious variety, as asset managers man the fuck up and go long. You may or may not know, my favorites are POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] and Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] . However, I am a fan of others, like United States Steel Corporation [[X]] , Century Aluminum Company [[CENX]] , Kaiser Aluminum Corp. [[KALU]] , Reliance Steel & Aluminum [[RS]] and AK Steel Holding Corporation [[AKS]] .

For what it’s worth, the top rated Steel/Iron stock in The PPT are:

Olympic Steel, Inc. [[ZEUS]] , ArcelorMittal (ADR) [[MT]] , Cleveland-Cliffs Inc [[CLF]] United States Steel Corporation [[X]] and Haynes International, Inc. [[HAYN]] .

The names most likely to squeeze shorts are Allegheny Technologies Incorporated [[ATI]] and Century Aluminum Company [[CENX]] , due to their leveraged businesses, coupled with egregious percentage of shares sold short in the underlying stocks.

Over the weekend, a few friends of mine joined me for some brandy and intelligent conversation. Aside from discussing the mental ailments of many of our politicians, actors and lauded asset managers, we broached the subject of “the perfect bear trap.”

Unanimously, we came to a conclusion, which would not please some of you.

The perfect bear trap is an environment where the equity markets and the dollar index advance, simultaneously, much to your local bearshitters chagrin. I know most of you will toss away such talk as “slave-minded rubics cube.” However, I am telling you, it is entirely possible.

It is NOT written anywhere that stocks must adhere to the fluctuations of the U.S. dollar, regardless of historical reference. I am telling you, once again, Mother Market is far too sinister and dynamic to be gamed like that. Fuck around, betting against this market, and you will lose your house, wife and half of your net worth, via egregious divorce settlement.

I will remind you, until further notice, this is a LONG ONLY market.

For the day, I enjoyed gains in Lennar Corporation [[LEN]] , Flowserve Corporation [[FLS]] , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) [[TEVA]] , Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] , ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] , CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] , Masco Corporation [[MAS]] and [[YONG]] .

As an aside, I wanted to make something abundantly clear. “The Fly” is not better than you because he enjoys a network of workaholic professionals, who share ideas with one another on a continuous basis. He is not better than you because of his experiences, good and bad. He is better than you for one reason and one reason only: he is much smarter than you.

Think about that pal the next time you leave a fucking “gay camel lounging on the beach” message on this website. Think about it.

There will be no surprises. You will not get a break down in the indices before the New Year. Managers will defend their positions with great vigor, using the retirement money of firemen and garbagemen to fund said activities.

Do not allow your political views blind you from the fact that robots control our markets. These robots, whether mechanical or human, are interested in fucking up the bears something awful. While you idiots try to eat healthy, via slobbering down chocolate covered vegetables, there are people out there (as we speak!) swallowing cow meat by the fucking pound. What that means, with regards to investing?

Absolutely nothing.

However, I will tell you, “The Fly” is not interested in working for the remainder of 2009. I just got back from the fucking movies. I saw that flick “Avatar.” What a blast.

Back to business.

I see weakness is permeating the tape, with stocks slowly sliding throughout the day. But, do not be tricked into selling short or selling out of winning positions, before year end. Why book the taxable gain?

Unless you are able to offset the tax gain, you are better off selling in the new year.

As for me:

I am busy with year end shit. At these levels, I like SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] , [[CBD]] and [[YONG]] for a bounce.