What more can I say? The gains are rolling in and people are not annoying me any longer. Life could not be better.
You know what I am long, right? No need to rehash current and future victories.
Where is Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] going?
It’s going to $100 and more, just like Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] .
At any rate, “The Fly” must leave now, as Mrs. Fly has a fun-filled evening of holiday shopping planned for him, where he will spend/waste more money on distant relatives who deserve nothing—not even a K-Cup.
I bid you farewell.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPTj_wkL_DA 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
fig
My stock, MTG, for the 2010 stock of the year contest was up 24% today.
Wow, that could set up for an exceptionally ironic sitch-ee-aye-shun.
_______
Oooo! Shot the wad before the starter’s gun. That’s gonna leave a mark.
Please, MTG will make your swimming pool look like its filled with baby jellyfish.
Heh, I had the opposite day – MNKD all over the place today in an orgy of rumor-fueled stupid! I’ll take your day over mine any time, even if it means I got a few hundred basis points of advantage on the stockpicking contest.
I don’t know what that means, but it sounds exotic!
I know I am setting myself up to be lambasted here, but I am curious to hear what some of you have to say. I am trying to overcome a handicap in my trading/investing. My problem is that I sell stocks with gains, too soon, for fear of giving back the gains (I assume). This effectively stops me from ever having a big winner, 25% or more, for example. Did it again today with BWLD and SD.
Sack up? 😉
Just kidding.
Set “mental stops” is really the best advice I can give you. Practice makes perfect. Sell a “little bit” and then let the rest ride might also be a good strag-e-tee.
__________
Thanks, JG.
And keep fighting the good fight, brother.
Roger that.
_____
Selling with a gain is no sin, Prez. I’m no expert, but may I axe you some questions?
– How well do you know your positions/companies/price targets/etc?
– Are you planning the exit? Know what you think the target is and what you need to see to confirm your target?
– What % of your portfolio is the position? Could you be taking down too much?
– Do you use trailing stops? Do you manage stops throughout the day/life of position? Have you used stops to mentally lock in the gain, and then let it ride?
– Have you tried building and selling positions in 20% increments?
Just curious as to your routine.
Best,
MOOBS
See there MOOBS, that’s the conservative part of me that says, “You won’t regret taking profits”. But, to answer your questions:
– How well do you know your positions/companies/price targets/etc?
Fairly well. I trade on trends, value, momentum…I’m all over the map. Price targets, not so clear.
– Are you planning the exit? Know what you think the target is and what you need to see to confirm your target?
Not usually.
– What % of your portfolio is the position? Could you be taking down too much?
Really, the larger the position, the quicker I want to sell with the small gain. If it’s a small position, then larger unrealized gains/losses don’t affect me as much.
– Do you use trailing stops? Do you manage stops throughout the day/life of position? Have you used stops to mentally lock in the gain, and then let it ride?
Never use stops.
– Have you tried building and selling positions in 20% increments?
Too expensive for me (commission). I trade in a 5-figure account; not huge. I’ll have anywhere from 5 to 12 positions, usually. Unless it’s a large position, legging in just cuts my gain % too much for my taste.
Thanks,
Prez
Mr. President, why are your positions different sizes?
What a subtle, thought provoking question, Woodshedder.
Mr. President, I think your task is incorporating the money management and risk control of a business enterprise into your good moves i.e. picking of winners.
Perhaps your position size is an emotional connection, which impairs a businesslike response?
Several reasons, such as downside potential, Whether it’s short or long term, whether it’s a value or momentum or thesis play, my confidence in the stock, etc. I fear downside, to be sure.
Pres,
What broker are you using and what is the commission fee? If you are using Scottrade and scale in and out in 25% increments then your total commissions would be $56 (4 trades in / 4 trades out). I don’t know what your normal position size is, but if it’s around $5K (small, I know) then commissions are just over 1%. Bigger position size makes the commissions a smaller percentage obviously. I assume with a small account you aren’t daytrading so you are probably looking for more than a couple of percent gain when entering a trade.
I’ll go “all in” on a trade if it’s a degenerate gamble / lottery type play. With those you’ll know soon enough if you are right or not.
If my Bubbe had balls she’d be my Zayde
Never sneeze at a profit.
Who knew (nu?) Tiger knew Yiddish?
________
Who knew L.T. could Dance?
Natural athlete.
_______
Mr. President, you may not need big gains.
What is your average loss?
What is your win%?
We might be able to work this out.
I had one big loss this year, chronicled on this here blog. The stock now trades above my buy point. I got scared out, very near the recent low. Win % is generally 4% to 20%
As another poster pointed out- it is excellent that The Fly has a weather expert blogging here! Dr. Cane’s blog is interesting.
Was in the Toyota Dealership today picking up new vehicle for the wife (parting with 2K9 winnings in a magnanimous display of Winship), and the Salesguy offers me coffee. I turned it down till he said it was single serving… I looked and there was the Keurig staring back at me with racks of Green Mt. single serve coffee silently whispering “Fly…Fly…Fly” to me. I smiled knowingly at the manifestation of The Fly’s omnipotence and bellied up to the coffee bar and got me some, just like GMCR.
Well done. Next time tell him to go fuck himself and head over to the Lexus dealership.
Did you have to post that “Fuck You” tombstone again?
Last time you posted it, a “wicked” pullback ensued
into Halloween. You might even jinx Santa now.
You don’t understand Madame, Fly hubris is critical to the natural workings of the market.
Much like a timely schtupp in the late days of pregnancy will help bring about the miracle of birth, so too a helpful dollop of Fly-bris will usher in a natural sell-off, much as Summer will tumble into Fall.
It’s all part of life’s every day miracles.
__________
Coffee 71
Gold 0
Given that you started “pounding the table” on GMCR at 75, you’ve got $5 to get back to “even.”
Meanwhile, I won’t embarass you as to gold’s action this year, or my winnings therein.
So sorry.
__________
Wrong again. I talked about it at 67, then it ran to 75. I started buying on the way down.
Please stand by for evidence, further deepening my blade into you.
Via PPT, all time stamped and documented, as you know
You wrote: 11/13/2009
3:35 PM
@ $68.01
Edit | Delete
“Starter position, bot 5,000 under $68.40” <—–first buy
You wrote: 11/19/2009
1:58 PM
@ $64.27
Edit | Delete
“bot 2,000 @ $64.25”
You wrote: 11/24/2009
12:21 PM
@ $64.25
Edit | Delete
“Bot 2,000 under $64.30”
You wrote: 11/29/2009
9:44 PM
@ $62.95
Edit | Delete
“this will be my largest position, buying into Christmas sales.”
You wrote: 11/30/2009
10:20 AM
@ $62.89
Edit | Delete
“bot 2,000 @ $62.50”
You wrote: 12/2/2009
1:50 PM
@ $60.53
Edit | Delete
“bot 5,000 in the $60.70’s”
You wrote: 12/4/2009
9:46 AM
@ $60.35
Edit | Delete
“Shorts are gonna get “French Pressed” today.lol”
You wrote: 12/8/2009
1:53 PM
@ $62.95
Edit | Delete
“bot 5,000 @ $63”
You wrote: 12/10/2009
12:54 PM
@ $63.01
Edit | Delete
“bot 2,000 @ $63.10”
You wrote: 12/11/2009
10:55 AM
@ $65.84
Edit | Delete
“Currently, this is my largest position.”
You wrote: 12/15/2009
1:23 PM
@ $65.87
Edit | Delete
“bot 2,000 @ $65.60’s”
You wrote: 12/18/2009
3:50 PM
@ $67.74
Edit | Delete
“squeezin’ this bitch into the bell. Bot 10,000 @ $68 flat.”
You wrote: 12/22/2009
11:25 AM
@ $69.57
Edit | Delete
“bot 1,000 @ $69.45”
You were saying?
People here bot it at $75 at your rec.
So you bot it at $67.
Would you accept a medal from the Nobel Committee?
Do you really want to compare it to what the gold stocks have done this year?
A fad stock?
_________
Just polled the PPT – of course I was buying before this, so I only have a summary —
8/3/2009
3:06 PM
@ $9.82
Edit | Delete
An historic day. Just bot my last bit of SLW — back to a “full position” of 20k shs. Last buy 1k @ 9.76″
This is why I don’t like to go down Hubris Turnpike. My head is large enough as it is (as you know).
________
Let’s not compare cock sizes. Take your loss like a man.
What loss? I never shorted the fad stock, though I may consider it at $71.90.
I do plan to purchase it at $55.
_________
The loss you should take, as I would if I was you, is admitting you were wrong about the call.
Whether you put your balls on the line or not is irrelevant. The fact that you continue to lure me into debates is beyond me. However, in my book, a 20% move off the point where you said to “sell,” while I said “buy” is a loss.
Take it. You will be a better man for it.
My rec? You have went off the Snoopy end on that one. I don’t recommend stocks. I discuss my trades. Furthermore, I reckon if you polled people, 99% are up on GMCR. Calling it a “fad stock” is just silly, since gold is the biggest fad of all.
Finally, I have always lauded your gold call. However, what you seem to forget, via selective memory, is the wide array of on the fucking money picks I’ve enjoyed all year, in a variety of sectors.
Touting your picks is one thing. Minimizing mine cannot be tolerated, regardless of head size.
Funny, but this lack of tolerance draws me back to the start of this convo, where you compared the fad stock to gold, in ridiculous fashion.
It’s time stamped and everything.
I made no mention of any other calls. As for gold being a “fad” — that’s a mighty long fad — nine years and counting now.
I figure we’ve got another two, minimum.
____________
More Southern lies.
You went off the deep end with charts, exclaiming GMCR would most definitely plunge, based upon silly moving averages or something.
Dot coms ran up for a good 5 years, prior to collapse, as did all bubbles. Hell, housing stocks soared for a solid 5 before taking a dirt nap.
Gold has gone up steadily; but has had deep corrections, which lasted awhile.
Good luck for the next two years, as America, most assuredly, will delve into hyper-inflation.
BTW: Calling Coffee “The New Gold” was said in jest, as you probably know.
Can we switch the subject to TBT/TBF? On a longer-term chart, as far back as 3 years, TBT went all the way to the low 70s. Is it a decent buy and hold here?
I remember when Fly first mentioned GMCR when it was around $75, but do not recall him saying to buy it then. Matter of fact, when it dropped after the conference call that is when he said something along the lines of “this is the pullback I was waiting for”. Anyone that jumped right in when the stock was first mentioned (without waiting for SAM buying confirmation) is just SOL.
I’m sure Mssr. Le Fly appreciates your solicitude.
As for what others do or have done, there’s warnings posted all over the site.
_________
Once again Grant, I NEVER told anyone to buy it higher than it is today.
I did not intend for the SOL statement to be disparaging. Far from it. Rather I meant it that anyone jumping the gun and buying GMCR before Fly started his position has no one but themselves to blame.
Even then, by the time it’s all said and done those that got in a bit early should make some scratch on GMCR.
Just got back from Target, where, as I strode down the “cawfee” aisle,
there were plenty of Hamiltons and Mr. Coffees, but NO
Keurigs to be found….
lol
sold the fuck out.
New tactics from steve the neighbor.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPvxx6RFMKM
Very pretty. The lights on my house dance to Adam Sandler’s song Hanukkah Song. It does drive Fly crazy at about 2 AM, though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vrd9p47MPHg
Merry Christmas to all of my Gentile friends at iBankCoin.
LOL. I have more of the Pagan Christmas action going.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT-6yjT4oFo
^^^^
You’re kidding right?
My kids just sang that at their cantata.
________
No. It’s the embodiment of the marriage of Paganism and Christianity. A time when we cast our differences aside, I suppose.
As much as St. Patrick used the pagan symbolism of the clover to represent the Trinity, I guess… but “the Holly and the Ivy” is a Christian song, first and last.
_______
Both the Druids and the Romans held holly as sacred and associated it with the winter solstice. Looks like a Pagan reference to me. The mentioning of the rising of the sun is strictly a Pagan reference. The inclusion of Christ is a transition to and inclusion of the new age of Pisces.
In the age of aquarius, coming soon to your planet, the age of truth will be upon us and we will all realize that the winter solstice has always been a time for people to come together regardless of their religion. Mainly because the sun is at it’s maximum distance from the earth’s axial tilt. It typically happens on Dec 21 or 22.
Maybe Tonight.
The part about Christian teachers taking the pagan traditions to teach the Word, etc ., a la St. Patrick, and the clovers just went scudding over your head, I’m assuming?
sheesh…
___
I don’t have a trickle of Irish blood, but my mom did find a four leaf clover as a child. I have it in a scrapbook. 🙂
NILE fits in nicely with those stock picks Fly …. and when/if the squeeze comes you can say that you’re drinking coffee from a diamond encrusted chalice and mean it.
I can’t get myself to buy NILE. However, I am fully aware of it’s fuckery.
More Southern lies.
You went off the deep end with charts, exclaiming GMCR would most definitely plunge, based upon silly moving averages or something.
Retarded. I declaimed that I expected to purchase GMCR at $55, when it pulls back to the gap. I never said “short it here”.
EVER.
_______________
Dot coms ran up for a good 5 years, prior to collapse, as did all bubbles. Hell, housing stocks soared for a solid 5 before taking a dirt nap.
NINE YEARS. We’ve been destroying the currency ever since the dot com meltdown. Get yourself a chart of the dollar since 2001, it will all become clear.
Gold has gone up steadily; but has had deep corrections, which lasted awhile.
Agreud. I’ve held my physicals since 2001, as I do today. Same with GG and RGLD, btw. RGLD I started buying under $4.
I’ve never made myself out as a day trader.
Good luck for the next two years, as America, most assuredly, will delve into hyper-inflation.
What’s pretty much guaranteed is that America has too much debt to pay off by taxing your earnings. Therefore the choice is default or inflate.
You’d argue?
_____________
Once again Grant, I NEVER told anyone to buy it higher than it is today.
Pretty ballsy, calling me that.
________
Why is that a ballsy statement?
As for the debt:
There are many ways to reduce the debt, aside from devaluation. There is zero percent chance of default, unless the world goes Ape shit.
If they were inclined, the Gov’t could impose all sorts of budget cuts and levy new taxes. Who knows?
It’s pointless to debate more than 1 year out, really.
Saying I said to buy it at 75 is Grant-like, fyi—for he is a lunatic liar.
You know what I’m talking about.
____________
Yeah, the government could do all that, but when was the last time they showed any political will? They will take the easy way out as they are elected, and must do so.
Our currency is 100% fiat. The easy way out is inflate or die.
______
THIS government has no backbone. Perhaps the future will be different? Perhaps America leads the way in some new technology that buoys the economy for 20 years.
Like I said, who knows?
Speaking of “dead shorts”…this one cracked me up if you haven’t seen it.
Hang On Bears! http://jeremythiessen.typepad.com/weblog/bear_bridge1.jpg
I do not want to fall victim to a mob-style attack, but I ask: does anyone here dabble in value investing?
(Fly hits Mr. Pres with flaming club.)
TCK:
You wrote: 6/17/2009
2:01 PM
@ $14.87
Edit | Delete
“Starter position… 1k @ 15.04. Could be named new Jackson tonight.”
(and it was).
______________
Let’s expand the topic. Check new post.
I know this is a trading site, not a think tank essay forum.
But- should hyper inflation (or even just 100 percent a year) inflation happen, who is going to have the money to buy these inflated things? I’m thinking the entire middle class and below will be devastated, in the shitter, no credit and shell shocked. How can the non-presently wealthy people profit from inflation?
It seems logical that low and middle end residential real estate dollar prices would inflate, but what is the end game, who will buy it? Only someone with credit and hoping for a greater fool, quickly.
Wages may inflate, but like pulling teeth, a day late and a dollar short.
It seems massive inflation would blow out the entire middle and lower economic class into a life of poverty. What am I missing here?
It will never happen like that.
U.S. debt will be forgiven before we are forced to destroy ourselves. That’s right. Just forgiven, South American style.
Agreud, but that will mean the end of the dollar as the global standard currency.
Whatever fiat takes over, I win. If we go back to some sort of commodity basket, I win. My gold is priced in US dollars.
_________
I did not intend for the SOL statement to be disparaging. Far from it. Rather I meant it that anyone jumping the gun and buying GMCR before Fly started his position has no one but themselves to blame.
Even then, by the time it’s all said and done those that got in a bit early should make some scratch on GMCR.
Don’t worry, I didn’t take it that way. My point was that we make it pretty clear here that you are on your own with the stocks we talk about on this site.
_________
Damn you Fly.
I was coming home to Melb. sitting in the Sydney airport lounge going through IBC on the iphone
I read this:
See folks, the market is not about what you and I believe to be true. It is about being an animal. You cannot “think normal” and make serious coin. Believe you me, all of those uptight money managers, who made a gagillion dollars in the market, those fuckers are 10 minutes away from losing their marbles for good. Successful people are not “normal,” as defined by Joey Stampcollector, over at engine house #10. They might walk around in their $10,000 overcoats thinking “hey, I’m soooo normal,” but they’re not. More often than not, they’re assholes, sociopaths of the first order.
I fucking cracked out laughing aloud unable to contain myself while drinking (a non-Green Mount) coffee . Lost control of the paper cup from the uncontrolled laughter and spilled the crap all down my shirt. Everyone’s watching me make a complete ass of myself as I went from hysterical laughter to screaming out in pain from the burning coffee and threatening to go over and kill the coffee maker for the loose lid.
had to go into the toilet with a change of shirt.
Fly, people thought I was a nutcase and its your damn fault 🙂