…I am working to correct my errors.
Quick stat, one that I should not have missed. Regardless of the overall market return in January, it is a horrendous month to invest in Chinese lottery stocks, by far. Counting the seasonal stats for the month of January, collectively (160 stocks), Chinese burritos were down 61% of the time, for an average loss of -2.92%. Conversely, the best month to buy chicoms is April, netting +5%, with a 57% win rate.
Moreover, using The PPT seasonality tools, some of the individual trends for January are staggering, such as 75%+ loss rates in CAAS, LONG, ACTS, CFSG, SORL, HRBN, CHNG, HMIN, LFC and EDU. The best seasonal winners in January are CHINA, SCOK and SEED, with mediocre 66% win rates.
Digging deeper, many chicoms are deviating significantly from their average January return.
Stocks deviating the most, to the upside, are: JOBS +17%, SHI+16%, ACTS +13.5%, CAAS +10% etc.
Stocks deviating the most, to the downside, are: TSTC -91% (was up 600%+ in January of 2004), FEED -31%, CHGS -22%, CTDC -22% etc.
Shockingly enough, right now, 61% of chicoms are now registering negative monthly returns, identical to the sectors historical patterns. How’s that for seasonal trend validation?
The biggest winners, MTD, are: FFHL +46%, BONA +33%, BITA +25%, CCME +24%, TRIT +22%, SYSW +20%, BORN +19%, SHI +17%, CXDC +17% and AMAP +16%.
The losers are too stupid to mention, most down on website attack pieces. Which in an entirely separate issue: are the earnings at Chinese firms reliable, from an accounting standpoint? Because of RINO and a few other bad seeds, bullshit websites have used their influence to raid the shares of thinly traded chicoms. Names like BORN, CVVT, DGW, CGA and TSTC have come under constant assault. Without knowing all the facts, I do know how bearshitters operate. For the most part, the majority of dedicated bears are smart and know how to pick a fraud. But these blog fuckers are a totally new animal, most likely trading ahead of their reports, committing all sorts of heinous insider trading violations. Going out on a limb here (my cock), I’d say the majority of chicoms are legit, with only a handful committing outright fuckery—not so much different than the domestic fraud-shit. However, because of the relentless rumors of fraud, more than 20 of the 160 stocks in my “burrito” index are down more than 20%, over a 3 month window.
When there is fear, opportunity presents itself.
Finally, for the month of February, the seasonal trends flatten out, with 50% of stocks trading up, for an average return of 0.74%. Moreover, the seasonal data is robust, booking solid gains, all the way until June. For the sake of contrast, semiconductor and equipment stocks, typically, post their best returns in January, with an average win rate of 53% and average return of 5.4%. Thus far, 62% of semiconductor and equipment stocks are up, month to date.
Food for thought.
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