…I am working to correct my errors.
Quick stat, one that I should not have missed. Regardless of the overall market return in January, it is a horrendous month to invest in Chinese lottery stocks, by far. Counting the seasonal stats for the month of January, collectively (160 stocks), Chinese burritos were down 61% of the time, for an average loss of -2.92%. Conversely, the best month to buy chicoms is April, netting +5%, with a 57% win rate.
Moreover, using The PPT seasonality tools, some of the individual trends for January are staggering, such as 75%+ loss rates in CAAS, LONG, ACTS, CFSG, SORL, HRBN, CHNG, HMIN, LFC and EDU. The best seasonal winners in January are CHINA, SCOK and SEED, with mediocre 66% win rates.
Digging deeper, many chicoms are deviating significantly from their average January return.
Stocks deviating the most, to the upside, are: JOBS +17%, SHI+16%, ACTS +13.5%, CAAS +10% etc.
Stocks deviating the most, to the downside, are: TSTC -91% (was up 600%+ in January of 2004), FEED -31%, CHGS -22%, CTDC -22% etc.
Shockingly enough, right now, 61% of chicoms are now registering negative monthly returns, identical to the sectors historical patterns. How’s that for seasonal trend validation?
The biggest winners, MTD, are: FFHL +46%, BONA +33%, BITA +25%, CCME +24%, TRIT +22%, SYSW +20%, BORN +19%, SHI +17%, CXDC +17% and AMAP +16%.
The losers are too stupid to mention, most down on website attack pieces. Which in an entirely separate issue: are the earnings at Chinese firms reliable, from an accounting standpoint? Because of RINO and a few other bad seeds, bullshit websites have used their influence to raid the shares of thinly traded chicoms. Names like BORN, CVVT, DGW, CGA and TSTC have come under constant assault. Without knowing all the facts, I do know how bearshitters operate. For the most part, the majority of dedicated bears are smart and know how to pick a fraud. But these blog fuckers are a totally new animal, most likely trading ahead of their reports, committing all sorts of heinous insider trading violations. Going out on a limb here (my cock), I’d say the majority of chicoms are legit, with only a handful committing outright fuckery—not so much different than the domestic fraud-shit. However, because of the relentless rumors of fraud, more than 20 of the 160 stocks in my “burrito” index are down more than 20%, over a 3 month window.
When there is fear, opportunity presents itself.
Finally, for the month of February, the seasonal trends flatten out, with 50% of stocks trading up, for an average return of 0.74%. Moreover, the seasonal data is robust, booking solid gains, all the way until June. For the sake of contrast, semiconductor and equipment stocks, typically, post their best returns in January, with an average win rate of 53% and average return of 5.4%. Thus far, 62% of semiconductor and equipment stocks are up, month to date.
Food for thought.
78 Responses to While You Drink Yourself Stupid…
Nice PPT power display.
Is it safe to PPT and drink at the same time?
interesting stuff here, Fly. turns out QE2 had no effect on seasonal returns of chicoms. what’s wrong with your us holdings?
eh fuckwhore, what’s the trade logo for? There are three leading suspects. Try to answer like a 40-year old teenager too.
It’s called avatar these days. you may need to write it down. a-v-a-t-a-r. but you’re right, words are unnecessary. vivid imagery will suffice.
Canadian Whiskery here. I just can’t see the 10-b refer…(ee) for the trees in your list. In the mean time, here’s my bearshot, if your Class of 2008 (http://bit.ly/r9WTe) tells their ’10, former interns to take their 16-b’s “rights” to Cape Cod or, Goddess forbid, Long Island: AXP, AMGN, BBD & CVLT (puts only).
CAVEAT: trade these & you may have to collaterlize your kids 529 college savings plan.
Just returned from a late evening on Yahoo finance boards?
What in the fuck are you trying to say?
Only idiots drink Canadian whiskey.
Alberta Premium Whiskey is fantastic!
Don’t reply “Exactly!” until you’ve tried it.
Huuuuuuuuu are you? Hu Hu, Hu Hu?
What are the stats for Januarys when Hu Jintao visits Washington DC? Is GE now a Chinese Lottery stock? It’s been busting out.
Did somebody mention my name? Senor Fly, when you cite divergences from historical seasonality, is it always to indicate that the seasonality might not be in play for a particular industry this year, or do you ever play it in the second half of the month as a trend reverting play? Is the rule, “if it doesn’t work early, dont rely on it?”
The problem is not Chicoms. The issue is that the entire market is rolling over. It doesn’t matter if you are trading Chinese Burritos or American BS companies that are way overpriced after having huge run-ups. They are all coming down in a big way next week,
This market is ripe for a major fall. One of the 5% variety in a day. DOW -400, S&P down 45. That is what’s coming and soon. I have my TZA, do you?
I don’t think we have a single day as bad as you’re expecting, but I could be wrong. Instead I think we get 2x days of -20+ on the S&P.
That could very well happen as well. I am loading up on TZA for that eventuality. I don’t think it happens Monday, but later in the week could get interesting. There is clearly a problem that needs to be worked through right now. If you look at the transports, you know what is coming. Dow always said that the transports lead the way for the rest of the market.
The margin call party hasnt even started yet.
Fly..Chinese New Years. China shuts down every year, heck they are already starting to catch trains to go home. Many that work in the cities go home only once a year to the countryside during this period, they go to visit their families. So, it makes total sense that china slows down in Jan and picks up in late Feb when everyone goes back to work.
For seasonality, I like the Oilfield Services names starting sometime in Feb. They were / are overextended and I think this was on prominent display today when SLB faded like shit after a pretty good earnings report. Check out the seasonality on OIH from Feb – Apr for a proxy on the sector. Looks good, no?
As another wise man once said “The future ain’t what it used to be.”
I outlast you all for research/awake time and endeavor to recycle your soul for electricity. I vote GSH China stock.
That was my first thought when Nymph mentioned Chinese new year and the increased passenger traffic.
I rode GSH. It was a beautiful scenic fall ride. The conductor was an Asian Oprah and when the ride was over she told us to look under our seats and we all got new cars.
>>…I’d say the majority of chicoms are legit, with only a handful committing outright fuckery.<<
I'd say it's the other way around. You're talking about an entire society whose leadership grew up under a "game the system" mentality, and it's those who "gamed it the best" who were able to get the kind of local government favoritism necessary to build their businesses. When I was on the sell-side, I used to speak with some of the most active U.S. institutional buyers of Chinese companies, and ask them how they could get any comfort getting into bed with those guys. Their universal answer was that they were buying 30% growers at high-single-digit PEs, so that even if the books weren't "exactly right," they were still getting a good deal. My answer was always (and still is): Do you really think you can go into business with someone and trust him to just steal a LITTLE from you?
How is game the system mentality any different here?
It’s a vastly different level of corruption on an individual corporate level, where the auditing/accounting is far more established; i.e., listed public companies outright lying about their numbers is pretty damn rare in this country, which is why Enron and Tyco are still talked about, even though they happened 10 years ago. Sure, one can have differing opinions about the value of assets (i.e., “the St. Joe’s controversy”), but that’s not the same as making up huge contracts or siphoning vast amounts of cash out of the company and into overseas assets.
RE: Companies outright lying to each other………how is that different than what the banks did over the past 6-8 years during the housing run up?
It’s just people figuring out how to get paid.
“I’d say the majority of chicoms are legit, with only a handful committing outright fuckery.”
I’m a little surprised to hear you say that. Figured you’d be a more skeptical.
I’m more in the “everyone is committing fuckery, Chicom or otherwise, and I must verify they are legit” camp.
for your consideration
sounds like an undeclared war.
I only agree with “The Real Bullish” viz
Sold SKWS handsomely. Now, in recognition of heavy Chinese rail traffic I am shorting Penn Central.
Handsome sale is right. Meant to say, SWKS.
… and this my dear friends is why fly is a seasoned veteran with a winning record. hard work bitches!
HANS BRIX FTW
Your chasing momo stock, I think that phase is over. Remember what made your year from what I recall it was GMCR and FTK the other shit for a point here a point there is like jerking off you only fuck yourself in the end … Time to go back to the drawing board….
Fly has been drinking too much Chi-com bs lately. He just needs a RINO in his portfolio to set him straight.
On a serious note, I know a guy who used to go to school with current top CEOs and directors in Taipei. He said that 90% of the clowns cook their books in some ways. There is no long term investing strategy in China. It is just a trading environment, although over a longer time frame than a daytrader’s time frame.
Oh what profundities are expelled from Harvard Business School. I know a guy who is in jail for selling dope. He says over 90% of his best customers were Wall Street big cats. So, WTF? Who gives a shit?
Lies. All lies I tell you.
Where did all that amazing shit you saw in the 2008 Olympics come from?
Technological and organizational perfection.
The USA can’t come close to competing with that shit. We can’t even win a
war against 100 AlQeda, with our 150,000 troops and 200,000 contractors.
The Olympics? Are you serious? The Chi-Coms only show you what they want you to see.
Conventional wisdom says that there is a private interest for a typical Chinese chicom’s CEO to cook books. That by showing growth of revenues/profits he will get some reward. Bullshit. Cooking books is an unnecessary risk. His real private interest is to milk the company as long as possible. For example via haircuts on purchases (from affiliated companies), on sales with lower prices (to affiliated companies), and who knows how else. The longer such a CEO is able to show decent (acceptable) figures, the wealthier he becomes. As their market is booming, only a dumb ass won’t be able to show good figures. A smart guy will satisfy every party (pun intended) and won’t forget about himself. It is not to say that one should fully trust their books, it all depends. However incentives on Enron executives were very different from incentives of “managers” in PRC.
Speaking of Chinese people: IT IS THE YEAR OF THE RABBIT? WTF COULD THIS MEAN FOR THE MARKETS?! LONG VIBRATORS?
There is a saying “Beware the Asian who wants to shake your hand”.
Is that because of the toilet paper shortage over there?
Before I invest in a stock, I ask myself, “if I had start up capital, would I want to enter this business right now?”
With large gains, you have the luxury to not “call tops” or catch spinning knives with downside trades.
The market has been due to correct 5%-7%, so I’ve been raising cash by selling weak and lagging stocks, and focusing mainly on US names. Fuck Chiner. Those fucking chinks are assholes with a queue. There, I said it. That’s right, they’re arrogant fucking assholes. And fuck the Euro fags. They can all kiss my ass. The majority of those assholes barely put in an honest days work, then expect to retire at 55 and drink wine, fuck each others faces, and laught it up with full benefits.
No, I am not worried about the market. The way I see 2011 so far, there are only two outs in the first inning and I’m up by 2 clams.. That’s my goal…2 clams a month for my investors. If there’ anything that has always worked for me, it has been to focus on making a 2% return each month. That goal has kept me on track and has also kept me from taking on too much risk and losing my focus towards the end of each month.
Nothing like getting pissed off to get you back on track. Those plebs who tell you to relax and chill out have probably never banked boffo bucks or have been accountable to other people for results.
I understand the Fly’s intensity when it comes down to making money. He is a pro, and I admire him for that, much more than his wit and raw dog humor.
Alpha, would be great to see you as a tab blogger! Please nominate yourself.
I second that nomination. need some chink humor and euro fag trash commentary on a regular basis.
Alphadawgg for PRESIDENT!
Alpha, would love to see you blog here. You’ve taught me a lot over the years and I’m appreciative of your generosity. Many people could benefit from your wisdom.
Well that makes three now … Jake, Tea & Alf … anyone else?
“Chinks” is not a good word to be using.
He was referring to the chinks inthe armour of the Chinese economy (i.e. the people?).
Almost not clever enough to be typed. Sorry.
If you had purchased $BRF last year in May and sold it in Oct as I did you would have 40 clams. 2 comissions and 1 taxable event. So many people beating their brains out for so little money.
Whoa Dawgg….Wow….+1 FREE Gift Certificate to Trader Joes for that rant.
been following you in da ppt
Been chart chompin I’ve seen the future and it has higher stock prices. Oil and Ag
That +7% at $GE…how convenient and how much Wealth did that create?
The reason the semi caps stocks are doing so well is because Intel raised their cap ex guided a stunning 77% in 2011 vs. 2010.
Okay. A couple of “free” picks from my premium service makinggeltwith steve.com. But, if you want the whole story you will need to subscribe via pay pal. I learned this trick from Neighbor Fly. Packers over Bears by 7. How can you argue with Bart Starr, Forest Gregg,Paul Hournung, and of course Vince Lombardi.
Jets fans- do not plotz but it looks like the Steelers by 10. It will be kept close until the fourth quarter only because Joe Namath and Terry Bradshaw will both play well. But, Joe Greene, Franco Harris, and Jack Lanbert will play well.
BOUNUS pick- Blackhawks will win by one over the Flyers thanks to Bobby Hull, Stan Makita, and Phil Esposito.
You are welcome.
Alpha was a tabbed blogger. He sort of retired before we got big.
Didn’t Alpha retire in real life too? Went on an extended vacation overseas as I recall, no? Stepped down, as any gentleman would, so as to free up room for an active blogger. Maybe I’m remembering this wrong.
If Alpha’s schedule did not permit daily blogs, a weekly overview/commentary from the Dawgg House would be a nice add, particularly on the weekend. iBC content stalls on the weekends I’ve noticed (not complaining, just an observation) so there is room for fresh content/weekend blogger. Just thinking out loud.
There was some KOTPG that was traveling in Asia some place which was really good to read. Anyone recall who that was?
I think you’re referring to Dubz.
Chivas? But he wasn’t KOTPG … a wise trader/market timer though
We know, but as he is a pensioner, you could arrange for him a warm spot under the iBC sun. Weekend job, we don’t ask for more.
SPH my seasonality pick based on the PPT for jan(time stamped inside the PPT) is working out nicely, SPH is outperforming the S&P so far YTD, with half the volatility, and a 6% Div. (not as good as DIS but there is always next year).
3-5% per month every month? It doesnt get any easier to bank coin.
how often are you rotating/switching positions based on seasonality?
rotate monthly based on the mathematical laws of the PPT seasonality engine.
speaking if the orympics,
dont forget, the fire works you saw on the TV were digitaly enhanced. Thats right, they were fake. Looked great didnt they?
Just like their economy.
the fireworks fooled most fat slob Americans sitting in their bullshit living rooms
which is all the more reason to buy Chi tech companies
PS: Alpha is a punk bitch. he picked a few small cap names at the bottom of the collapse and everyone now wants to suck his old cock
he will be eating noodles with German made chop sticks before long
No need to lament this evening, Merger Monday is in effect.
Merger Monday will not affect.
Silver and Gold up substantially after decline last week!
Buy on weakness!