I Feel Myself Getting Cold

I’ve been wanting to buy GNK and CAAS all day, but have held back since they’re both low volume death traps. For the time being, both stocks are climbing and the market looks fine. But what if AAPL throws a grenade for earnings after-hours? What if the market decides to pause? There are so many ifs, not enough red bulls.

Either way, I find myself cold, searching for answers, looking for the truth in a sea of lies.

I am enjoying the pullbacks in both YELP and TRLA and can only wish they both drop 10% from here, so I can get back in. When in doubt about what stocks to buy, I like to default to my favorite story stocks. Otherwise, I’m just trading a bunch of crap, literally hoping and praying for a breakout.

This isn’t a rational way to invest.

The market is flat, but I am down 1.2%. Taking a step back and seeing how far I’ve come over the past 6 weeks, I’d be an idiot to press my luck at a time when I feel like I’ve lost an edge.

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Speaking of which, the other day on twitter, post Davian fraud revelations, I haphazardly intertwixt Tim Sykes with the word fraud. This was an immature act on my behalf and hereby apologize to him for my indiscretion.  Truth be told, it’s very easy to just say things on the internet– without even thinking how it might affect the other person. This coming from me, a person who has banned over 2,000 readers of the site for talking trash, I should know better.

I sold out of FWM, USG, EMKR and WIT, raising a significant amount of cash because I’m just not feeling this tape right now. There are demons who are plaguing me, tempting me with visions of grandeur and superfluities.

It’s my job to fight these demons to do what George Costanza would do. If he was in my place, he’d do the opposite.

After my sales, I am now 70% long, looking for opportunities, but on alert for a sharp pullback.

First and foremost, my position in CXO is paying off handsomely, right off the bat, allowing an oil man like myself consider expanding into degenerate lottery stocks. Very few of my positions are lower this morning and I do not care about news anymore.

I am sure there’s a reason as to why stocks are up, stemming from some lunatic speech in some idiotic country. But it’s all moot to me now.

As an oil man, all I care about is the prospects of my holdings. I will sell some too early and some too late; but making a profit is all that matters.

A great man once warned against timing tops and declared “I will seize the fat middle, every single time.” When reviewing my trades and wondering why in the world I sold so early, I am reminded by this piece of advice and feel grateful that I am so profitable this year.

Looking over the market I see that FIRE was acquired by CSCO and boat stocks are ripping again. If I miss GNK on the upswing, I doubt that I could ever forgive myself. I am now stuck between greed and fear, cognizant that both cannot exist at the same time if I am to be successful.

At the moment, I am sizing up the tape, contemplating putting on more risk or removing it.

Shares of USU skyrocketed today. I didn’t even bother looking at the news. All I had to see was the number of shares in its float and I knew why it went up. It’s a very tricky thing to be long stocks with thin floats. You need an ‘event’ that can provide you with the liquidity needed to get out at a handsome profit. Often times, when taking 7 fig positions in illiquid, low float names, the ‘event’ can be you taking the damned position, so you need another one.

Do you follow me?

Now if you’re buying into an already hot sector, there’s a good chance ‘bargain shoppers’ will get around to your name, bid it up, flag it on message boards, putting it to the top of the most % up list for the day. When that occurs, snowballs turn into avalanches and USU happens.

On the other hand, if you want to be really early in a name, buy into it when the sector is icy cold, or following an earnings shortfall. You will have to wait at least 3 months to get paid, but the reward can be bountiful.

To be perfectly frank with you, I am very eager to find a huge winner, having sold out of YGE and SOL too early. I need ‘the next one to go.”

I promise you, one of the stocks I am going to reveal to you will be a monster winner. Which one will it be?

UNXL
CERE
SUPN
CYCC
CWTR
BGMD
PEIX
CPSS
LNN
STRA
FBN
RAIL
ROSG
GEOS
ASPS
REDF
SBLK
CUTR
OCLS
CLNT
LBIX
DQ
PULS
EPAM
DRL
CSUN
CLIR
CIMT
CAAS
BIOD
USCR
FBRC
BREW
ADNC
ATOS
CHCI
CYOU
CPLA
CLFD
LEDS
ENVI
ENPH
RRGB
NCTY
RST
TROV
MN
ACPW
BODY
EGLE
MDCI

I know it’s a lot of names. They need to be weeded out. But there is treasure to be found, somewhere on this list. I promise you that. Ragin Cajun was kind enough to link up a chart on Chartpin (an iBankCoin property), so that you could vote for your favorite name. I am certain the majority of you will be too lazy to sift through the charts. But for those of you who are industrious and have some times to kill, humor me by voting for your favorite names.

Trusting consensus, I will then remove the names that received the least votes, run them through another filter or two, then begin to build a position.

Who’s up for a treasure hunt?

Don’t let this boring tape fool you. There are big things happening in a number of areas, such as stabilization of bonds and REITs, outperformance in small cap stocks, chinese stocks are ripping off chest hairs, oil is threatening to break towards $110, gold and silver are rebounding and the 3 year long Brent dominance over WTI is over. Let’s not forget the massive melt up in the Dry Bulk Index, spearheaded, allegedly, by big demand for iron ore in China.

I must admit, these ingredients make for a very bullish tape and I’d be hard pressed to find reasons to get defensive here.

It’s business as usual and being able to pick the right stocks is important. The tailwinds of liquidity are in abundance and all we have to do is avoid messing it up via bad stock picks.

Amongst my holdings, IMMR is frustrating me the most. However, I am pleased with WIT, FLSR, SCTY, EMKR and RKUS.

I have been researching several low float spec plays all day and should have a gamble or two soon. On the serious position front, I want to start buying POWI, but the volume is so damned thin. Volume has kept me out of some of my best ideas, namely OSTK at $5. Truth be told, there is nothing like nailing a cheap stock that trades by appointment that morphs into an expensive name with millions of shares traded daily. I’ve had only a handful of those in my career and always endeavor to find more.

For the session, despite the sleepy tone, I am +1.2%.

I am monitoring today’s winners and it borders on comical, the way they’re pole-vaulting higher.

USU is mushroom clouding higher, as well as BCRX, HIMX, FDML, ALSK, HGSH, TROV, YRCW, CHTP, SOL and about a dozen others are luring me into the garbage dump again, searching for treasure.

Just a word of caution here: these bastard stocks are not interested in helping you. They will flame broil your Burger King eating asses and put your house in foreclosure. Be careful when chasing the biggest winners. The blade swings both ways. Remember LOTE? I didn’t think so.

The solar names have been consistent outperformers–fueled by a communist government and lurid oil prices. Within the space, I prefer FSLR over all, but have larger positions in both SCTY and EMKR because I’m a degenerate gambler.

I’m not a fan of FRO here. VLCC rates haven’t recovered. Buying it here is equal to betting that Charles Manson will make parole this go around. I do, however, like GNK more here, as it is tied to the BDI index, something that has demonstrated improvement. But, it’s worth noting, GNK can just surprise us all and declare bankruptcy–a novel way of increasing shareholder value these days (cite: OSG).

There are risks to this game.

Based upon the advice of my urinal shadows, I like the look of LVS and MDR. And, if ONVO gets into the 5’s, I might take a stab (no OJ).

On  the story stock front, you dirty fellas ought to have a look into the prospects of POWI. Their ‘quick-charge’ technology was picked up by QCOM and they stand to revolutionize the recharging of the smartphone and tablet markets, boasting speeds up to 75% faster than the current standard.

I’m up a cool 2% this morning, even though I am positioned conservatively, long at 110% of capital.

Today’s winners are a mixed bag of nuts, with solar and gold leading the way. Don’t ask me how gold/silver have resurrected themselves, but they have. Some of you were correct about gold and I was wrong. I still hate the yellow metal–but regret letting my emotions get in the way of making money.

It seems that every single sector that gets obliterated comes back with a vengeance, rewarding bottom pickers for their bravery.

Look over the recent winners: solar, homebuilders, oil, tech, alt energy, airlines, refiners and healthcare. At one point they were all in the dog house, orphans of wall st. Look at them now.

The only real dogs that left can be found in the natural gas, nuclear, precious metals, steel, coal and shipping industries. Judging by recent trends, this is likely only the beginning for the run in FRO and GNK. If natty is going to come back, KWK, UPL, and CWEI will surge to the upside.

Being that I am up more than 40% for the year and own plenty of momentum names, I’ve decided to try my hand at some undervalued turnaround plays, maybe just one to start.

My good friend and blogging mate, THE WOODSHEDDER, has semi-retired from the office of ‘blogger’ at iBankCoin.  Although the title of this post is meant to jest, I am saddened by this development, as it was Woodshedder, alongside his caped sidekick, Danny, who started the site with my back in 2007.

As all new things in life, we were quite optimistic about our prospects and wanted to spread the good word. Time has a way of dulling the once sharp knife of ingenuity, as the novelty of ‘new’ wears thin often. I can’t blame him  for prioritizing his life, tossing iBC into the urinal for an expeditious flush. Plain and simple, this is public service and at times can be monotonous. I’ve never contemplated leaving because I truly enjoying writing and sharing ideas. Then again, I do this for a living, managing money on behalf of some of the wealthiest and fattest people on this earth.

That being said, Wood is a good guy. I’ve had the pleasure of meeting him twice in NYC, during our annual meetings. He’s one of the guys that you instantly take a liking to. You can tell his heart is in the right place and would never lie or betray your trust. I am sure we haven’t seen the end of Woodshedder, as the south has a curious way of rising again.

On a related note, I’ve officially failed at becoming an alcoholic. God knows I’ve tried my hardest to accomplish this goal, coming home and living out the cliche of pouring myself a glass of scotch, neat, after a long day’s work . On the weekend’s, I’ve partaken in one form of debauchery after the next, all resulting in adamant displeasure.

I don’t want anything, none of it is for me. I am perfectly content with a beer or two, and the occasional bottle of Bordeaux from time to time; but the hard drinking is definitely out. Gone are the days when I’d drink a bottle of tequilla on my own, and still have my senses about me. These days, if I can get through a six pack without feeling tired, I am lucky.

Getting old certainly has its drawbacks.

Tributes to Wood.

I no longer consider myself to be a person associated with coal mines. Effective immediately, “The Fly” is an oil man–always has been and will be an oil man.

I’ve taken it upon myself, naturally enough, to partake in the ownership in the shares of CXO. Bearing witness to the extreme inconvenience at the pump, I must profit from it, even if it means leaving my friends and family at their retarded coal mines.

I intend to ride CXO up to $104, then ditch it like a prostitute–shortly thereafter.

We hired a Mexican scientist to work on our redesign, but he quit halfway through the project. I like the design. It’s clean, simple and is without clutter. Like all things in life, a concentrated effort is always preferred. I hope to keep this look for the next 100 years.

Some of you might believe I am distraught with agony because IMMR is down. But you are wrong.

I welcome clarity and boldness. The ambiguity that kills me, not the loss. The stock is getting smashed today and I am pleased to see people get flushed out. I will not buy the dip, since I am fully invested in the name. However, I will tell you, for your own education, that The PPT is flagging OVERSOLD on the name, with stellar results.

NOTE: As I write this, Obama (Senor Africanus) is delivering a racially charged speech, in order to fuel some weekend riots. Way to go Mr. President. I like your style.