I’ve Got Good News and Bad News

The good news is Capesize rates are up more than 10% this morning, lighting a hot fire under the shares of dry bulkers. I expect to make a King’s ransom in BALT today. The bad news is SOL. These crazy people are having issues collecting money from China (shocker!). They managed to beat on the top line by $50 million, but took a major charge and missed the bottom line by 0.89!

I’d like to have the patience to understand what is going on there. I’d also like to know if I should be bailing on the stock here, down huge on a percentage basis, or double down. I don’t have a large position in SOL; but -15% hurts no matter how small it is.

For now, let’s celebrate the hedonism to come in the bulkers. Companies with most exposure to Capes are DRYS, GNK and DSX. However, BALT, thanks to their recent purchases, now have 4. More importantly, they just bought 2 Capes when rates were down to $17,000 per day. Now that day rates are above $33k per day, they look like the smartest men in the room.

My grandfather made a lot of money when he was young. He spent it as fast as he made it, never bothered to buy a house, and didn’t believe in saving for a rainy day. After all, he was a living ATM machine, an artist of sorts, refinisher of furniture at a time when people cared about craftsmanship. He had famous clients, such as “Mr. Progresso” and wore a yamaka whenever a jewish client walked into his shoppe. He knew how to make money and provided for his family for decades, until he woke up one morning without the ability to see.

High blood pressure was always an issue; but he never imagined it would take his vision and part of his hearing to boot. He could see a little bit, but not enough to cross a street, drive a car and definitely not enough to refinish furniture for Mr. Progresso.

Since he didn’t save any money and his business was 100% reliant upon his craftsmanship, he was thrusted into poverty, almost overnight. For years, until his death, he agonized over his missteps, almost daydreaming about “all of the money” he blew on bullshit. He had cars, clothes and rubbed elbows with the Sinatras and other unsavory characters, and then nothing. Total and absolute dependence on social security checks that amounted to no more than $1,000 per mo, because he was creative with his accounting when he was making money, if you know what I mean.

Seeing him struggle like that always motivated me to do something with my life. I didn’t want to just make a bunch of money, blow it on cocaine parties, then end up grilling a swordfish over a flaming barrel of garbage. Some men are like peacocks, dressing themselves up in flamboyant clothes, tattoos, and creative hairstyles, in order to attract the female species. These people have not evolved in over 400,000 years, base instincts on display like savage beasts.

Life has to be more than that. Happiness must derive from accomplishments and then using said accomplishments to make the world a better place. The world doesn’t have to be “the world” per se, but your sphere of influence.

I’m rambling a bit here. But the point is this: if you’re banking coin now, save for a rainy day. Live within your means and make sure you continue to grow as a person. Read things you wouldn’t normally read. Be curious and always adapt to change. As an advisor for people with a lot of money, the biggest mistake I see people making, aside from tax planning, is retirement planning.

Own your house. Build equity. Invest in stocks. Bank the coin. Build Orbital Space Cannon. That’s my life strategy. What’s yours?

I had a solid day, up 1.6%, led by BALT. NSTG gave it up into the bell. That stock is so illiquid it’s impossible to trade. You just have to hold on and hope for the best.

FRO is a beast to be reckoned with. Naturally, I regret selling that too. But BALT will be just as fantastical. You must exhibit a bit of patience in order to realize the vision.

Speaking of which, dark clouds circle the shares of IMMR. In my opinion, it’s due to forced selling from one of their largest shareholders, some bozo from Dialectic, Fichtorn or what have you. He is the reason why I sold my shares 40% higher. I knew he was selling and would be forced to sell more, since all of his other holdings sucked. He’s a big bear, gold bug, everything that’s wrong with 2013.

GOGO hurts me the most, only because I saw it so vividly. I sell these great stocks because I am greedy. I want to “get over” by selling high and buying back low. But if I was truly honest to this mantra, I’d be buying ANGI here hand over fist, being that I sold her north of $25.

I’m still heavy into YELP and RBCN and have been waiting for my holdings to make a move. Even though the market is at new highs, its been tough sledding in momentum names. Case in point: SOL. What a dog. However, as long as WTI crude keeps trending higher, there will always be a spot for solar in a gambling man’s portfolio. Plus anyway, these companies are knocking the cover off the ball.

Truth be told, I fixed myself in a variety of illiquid securities and have become hostage to their caprices.

When I said: “the Santa Claus rally begins now”, you didn’t think that included you, or did you?

Ever since that post, my fortunes have soared, alongside profits. Shares of NSTG, BALT, SOL, YELP and GIMO are sharply higher. All I need is RBCN to lift off and I’ll ask nothing more from the stock Gods.

People, after yesterday’s small rally into the bell, The PPT never did close at Oversold; but it is oversold now. Let the market close badly. Allow the people on CNBC punch each other in the face for a good scoop, hedge fund redemptions and the like. Rest assured, Santa didn’t forget you. You will get yours.

In the end, everyone gets what they deserve and that has nothing to do with fate. Be patient.

Buckle up: it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

The PPT wins again.

There are too many of them. What we need to get this market going, a nice Santa Claus rally, is massive layoffs or exporting of good paying jobs to Mexico, China or Brazil. The ADP report of +210k jobs for the month of November is too much to bear. As a result, futures have swooned, mind you, lower.

I’ve never been a ‘big fan’ of jobs and would rather my neighbors live out the rest of their lives in leisure, roam about the golf course, taking it easy for the rest of us (extra Big Lebowski). I understand that many of you want/need jobs, in order to pay bills and acquire sustenance. However, for the sake of the greater good, can you think about someone other than yourselves for once and demand that your job be stripped from you, so that we might enjoy a Santa Claus rally?

In other news, the BDI is ripping higher again this morning. Cape rates surged ahead $1,858 to $28,899. BALT just took delivery of two Capes yesterday. The timing could not be better. By the way, Supramax rates are nearing $16k, making that +100% for 2013.

Why isn’t anyone else getting excited over the God damned shippers by now? What do you people need, engraved invitations, a fire works display and grande entrance via hot air balloon?

As owner of a small, local, neighborhood internet shoppe, I am able to see trends, as they develop, in real time. Throughout the years our traffic has steadily increased, only because we’ve been able to adapt with change. Many of my peer bloggers fell by the wayside into dark pits of black matter because they were dinosaurs; and now they’re extinct.

iBankCoin will last for a thousand years–because we are malleable and true innovators in the game of bloggery. In the year 3013, I imagine “The Fly XXIII” will preside over these internets and rain terror upon space aged plebeians who attempt to “snatch his swag.” Everything changes, but in a way, nothing changes– if you know what I mean.

Back to my central point. Have a look at some trends for 2013.

People aren’t using the computer as much as they used to. As a result, search referrals dropped sharply in 2013, meaning people weren’t looking up “Fly ibankcoin” as much as they were in previous years.

Our top referrers were Twitter, via the extension we use on Twitter, and StockTwits.

As you can imagine, our social networking revolves around Twitter, with very little traffic coming from other venues.

The browser wars are being won by Google, via Chrome. The largest drop off is from Firefox, mostly due to the fact that they’ve been sucking really hard in recent years. It’s worth noting our biggest growth is coming from our iPhone app. We just added an Android app, so that data isn’t represented here.

The game is being played via mobile, so get with the program antiquated blogger guys. We enjoyed decent growth in Apple products, but a 4 fold increase in Android traffic. Hence, we built an Android app to fulfill the demand.

Blackberry is non-existent. Going to zero.

It’s like a sick joke. On the national philanthropic day, dubbed “Giving Tuesday”, the market plummets.

Here in the Princeton area of NJ, an area that I am new to, everyone is donating clothes, food and money to the fine folks over in Trenton, a place so forbidden, it’s one of 4 state capitols where the Governor’s mansion is outside the city. The people from Princeton are much different from the gentile folks in NY and decidedly better than the savages in Staten Island, a place that was designed and constructed by the devil himself.

As for stocks: I haven’t the slightest idea what is transpiring. Today is my son’s 9th birthday and my wife and I have been shuffling about the neighborhood procuring his favorite things. We decorated the house to look like a Pokemon palace and my wife baked him a cake (he doesn’t like the store bought kind).

I see my portfolio is down over 2%, effectively wiping away whatever gains I made last week. But I’m not going to let it get to me. The stocks I own are good and December is not a trecherous time for equities.

Being the generous guy that I am, on this ‘giving tuesday’, I can tell you that The PPT is now flagging OVERSOLD on our 12 month and 36 month algorithms. The stats are convincing, with a 90% win rate (9-1) for the 12 mo algo with a 5 day hold of the SPY. On our 36 mo algo, the SPY went up 22 out of 27 times, when flagged OS, with an average return of 2.3%.

My bottom line call: the market will be 2% higher from today’s closing prices by next week.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoUM8hlJzls

The Dry Bulk Index is on one of its epic runs. The last time this happened, EGLE went to $9, DRYS and GNK were heading to $5 and the world as we knew it still sucked.

Here we go again.

I understand. No one cares until they do. Once Cape rates pass $30k, all of the plebeians will crawl from out their housing tenements to buy shares of BALT, GNK, DRYS, SBLK etc. If you were wise, you’d position ahead of the crowd. Although iBankCoin gathers a good amount of attention, read by all of the fashionable people in finance, it is not mainstream. Therefore, the ideas that you gather from these halls should be kept in the strictest of confidences, else feel the full fury of my unforgiving wrath.

Here is the BDI over the past month.

Now that I’ve done my part in stirring a race war, I thought I’d point you into some interesting directions, as far as stocks are concerned.

As readily told on the teevee, the month of December is generally a good one for stocks. Naturally, they just say this without backing it up with data. Truth be told, the market has been down 5 of the past 10 years during December. But who’s gonna let some facts get in the way of a good story?

But if you dig deeper and inspect the undercurrents of the tape, you can find some legitimate trends.

Using the seasonality engine inside of The PPT, I’ve come up with a short list of stocks that tend to outperform in December.

UN: has never been down in December, up 27 years in a row.
SYT: 13 years up, zero down, avg return 6.3%
GGB: 13 years up, one down, avg return of 10.4%
CLF: 22 years up, 4 down, avg return of 7.24%

Broader trends:
Steel and Iron stocks outperform, namely NUE, GGB, STLD and CLF.
Chinese stocks do abysmally. Avoid.
Homies do good, namely RYL, PHM and KBH.
REITs do fantastic, by far the best performers.
Oil and Gas: NOV, BAS, SD and CLR.
Ag: MON, POT, MOS.

Stocks to avoid:
CRUS, EXK, SWHC, BIDU, KNDI and RVLT.

How bad is CRUS during December you ponder?
Out of 23 years, its been up just 6. That’s a 73% lose rate in December for an average loss of 7.33%.

On the flip side, buying the blood in CRUS during December has proven to be a very profitable endeavor, as it tends to shine in January, sporting a 77% win rate and average return north of 10%. In other words, watch for CRUS to get crushed and buy it afterwards.