Everything Lies in the Balance Right Now

The war in Israel is on the verge of spilling into neighboring Lebanon, at which point one could presume Iran will get involved in a tangible way. Under this pressure, it’s hard to see how the governments of Egypt and Jordan can remain friendly to Israel, in spite of how many dollars we send their way. Israeli relations with its neighbors have been set back 40 years in recent weeks — and in that regard — the attacks by Hamas was successful.

We now find ourselves, as Americans, on the verge of committing to a fully industrialized war in Ukraine against Russia and a new one against Iran. Our capacity to undertake both wars is possible — but not under present conditions — which is why I believe the government will adopt a war time economy of production and perhaps the first peace time military draft since world war 2.

People who think these are crazy ideas are not looking at the dwindling stockpiles and lack of men in the military, a vast emptiness of capabilities produced by decades of supremacy. The world is changing now and the great industrial might we once enjoyed has been given to China. The idea we could fend off a Chinese attack on Taiwan, Russians in Ukraine, and Iran in Israel all at once, given our paltry means of production, is performative art.

Markets have been pricing in this gloom for the better part of the last three months — you chose not to listen. As you survey the rubble of your portfolio and wonder where it all went long — know this: You are stupid from birth and didn’t have any choice in the matter. Feel free to prance about in your rainbow uniforms and uphold the depraved elements of our society as serious people attempt to fix what they know is broken.

For the session, I enacted revenge and netted +123bps, in aggressively sized positions — betting against the market and long volatility, war, gold, and oil.

My prediction for wayward downside action immediately, followed by a selling crescendo and panic. America is in crisis and there is nothing you can do to stop it.