Granted this is clickbait — but we certainly did enjoy quite the meltup today. I want to walk you though the emotions I had today, for the sake of posterity.
I entered today down 10% for the month, feeling awful about it, not just because I lost money but also because I have a trading room of reprobates who often use my picks as their own. I have been careful for weeks and this is the reason I was down 10% and not 25%, which could easily have been my fate if I was fully invested and/or aggressive with my allocations.
The morning was faded fast and I sold as soon as I could, locking in a +28bps gain. I read a comment out of Fed’s Kashkari, who basically was appeasing traders with comments such as “we will not raise by the spring if shit is fucked up.”
I ended up taking starter positions in LABU, WCLD and TNA — 5% to start and when they dipped I added 1% to them a piece. I normally just double down, but I was scared to allocate too much. Then this news hit and it spooked markets.
US Officials: Russia's Military Buildup Near Ukraine Has Expanded To Include ‘Supplies Of Blood, In Key Indicator Of Military Readiness’ – RTRS
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) January 28, 2022
I want you to think about that presser. Of course medics carry blood with them. That much is moot. This was released on purpose as part of a psyop to instill fear into those opposing Russia. In other words, shit is about to get real — Vlad the Impaler is sending blood to the Ukraine. Markets soon after nose dived, especially after I walked my fucking dogs. My gains had been +55bps into the walk and when I returned I was flat.
Over the next hour we went straight down in an i-shaped pattern — registering 6 red candles in a row. I was besides myself with angst and I looked at my already down account deepen with crimson — off at the lows of -1.2%, in spite of being 65% cash.
I was tempted more than once to hedge via UVXY — but I held off because I saw the breadth in Stocklabs was indicating EXTREME bearish sentiment so I paced my office and game planned what my account might look like if we dropped 4% today and how I would use my cash reserves to attempt to salvage it.
Then we soon reversed and registered one green candle after the next and when we got back to the pre-dog walk highs, I allocated another 20% into the market and ended the session +2.1%, closing up nearly 1% for the week.
I didn’t hedge because these type of ramps usually last for several days if not weeks. We are extraordinarily oversold and to be honest — I really do live or die by the tools I have created so I might as well err on the side of my creation than fade it and risk missing out.
FACT: Since summer of 2021, Monday has been the only day of the week with net returns for the IWM.
People who pick bottoms get shit on their penuses.
This is why I read this blog