As we speak, investors are being packed tightly into train cars en route for VIX camp. I understand it’s quite wonderful and all of the people onboard the train have been assured by the train drivers that “VIX CAMP IS GREAT — free food and showers and a nice warm bed to sleep in, in addition to ample opportunities for work.”
Markets are shattered lower, with the NASDAQ off nearly 400 and everyone I know believes this is it — the end.
My only problem with this train of thought is the fact that, pardon me, but every single banking crisis since 2008 has been met with feverish central bank rigging. Oh, I bet you forgot when capital flows out of China were cause for pain and the Yuan was called into question and people sold down Asian stocks as if they were valueless.
Perhaps we are early in this rout and it is September, so there is room to breathe lower. But I am a veteran by now in trading market crashes and this does not have the hallmarks of true panic yet and I have PTSD from a decade plus of rigging, so pardon me as I express my wariness when I glance at your puts and your bulking VIX calls and see fire in your future, for the Chinese are not a free market and the Chinese are not going to permit $300b in debt go unattended — wreaking havoc on their banking system.
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Evergrande is due to pay $83.5 million interest on Sept. 23 for its March 2022 bond. It has another $47.5 million interest payment due on Sept. 29 for the March 2024 notes. The bonds would default if Evergrande fails to pay the interest within 30 days.