I Should Be Going to Cash

I should be going to cash, following such terrific gains. Up 20% in my trading in the last two weeks, +30% in my Quant — a near doubling in ETH during a time of extreme uncertainty seems to be an anomaly of some sort. I keep thinking “this is it — this is the plunge to do us in for good” but it never happens. Each time we wane and stagger, I jump in with inverse ETFs and almost every single time I do it — I lose money. The thought process is along the lines of roulette — “this time will be different. I know what I’m doing.”

But it’s more of the same, over and over, up and up we go, without intermission, and without reason.

We are, undoubtedly, in the most severe bubble since the dot com era. Instead the internet and B2B, we have SAAS and vaccines and electric cars, and solar panels.

When will it end? No use in trying to anticipate the rug pull. I will tell you — because I remember it well and wrote two books about my ordeal, that the beginning of the dot com crash felt different. The selling was frenzied and the volatility ramped, sort of like what we saw in March of last year. Until the characteristics of the tape change, it’s probably a good idea to keep betting on what’s breaking out now.

For the session, so far, I am +235bps, 15% cash.