Make no mistake, markets want Biden to win. Look at how Biden related stocks are rallying today and have been rallying for the past month plus. Electric vehicles, renewable energy, Chinese stocks — all up sharply. The low taxes, highly dysfunctional Trump administration has worn thin on Wall Street now, not because the market is tired of low taxes and financial rigging, but because people who invest money into the market are bored.
I suppose most people aren’t scared of renewed environmental laws and/or higher taxes. If you recall the pin action during Obama’s final three years it was nothing less than depressing.
Alas, markets want what markets want. We’re spinning higher today amidst optimism for a Biden win, who is presently polling +10 ahead of Trump. I’d be shocked if Biden didn’t win. Why that would mean the polls were really wrong again, much worse than in 2016.
Because of my hedges, I am off by 0.5% today, more so because of NCLH and AMC actually — both of which I just sold. I added a few Biden plays and liquidated my quant, which was up 1.7% for the session. I will redeploy the quant later today with new stocks and I’m thinking about what to do with my SQQQ position.
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Fly, don’t you realize that besides the fake polls, everything else is rigged to make the public believe Biden is going to win? Betting odds strongly lean towards a Biden win yet throngs of people from all walks coming out for Trump. I live in a blue area and I’m seeing a lot of Trump support. The fact that Biden stocks are rising is only more of the same fake indicator bullshit so people believe Biden is going to win. So when Trump wins, they can again claim that the election was rigged in Trump’s favor. You may be not be surprised if Biden wins but will be when Trump does.
Betting markets are just like other markets. They tend toward efficiency and are usually right. Especially this close to the election with more money coming in. They tend to be correct. They imply about a 68% chance of a Biden win today. Its probably damn accurate.
OK Chief. Just like 2016 when Trump was +550 and Hillary had a 98% chance of winning.
A model isnt the same as a market. The betting markets didnt show 98%. Any model that does is just wrong. Betting markets had it around 35% implied probability that Trump would win.
Even Nate Silver’s model had it at about 29%, but the standard deviation in his predictions was massive.
+550 is an implied probability of 15% anyway. And that includes vig. I think my 35% number is off above. Im seeing lots of closing lines. Best I can tell it closed +350, but tons of vig.
There are hints in the market that they’re looking to end lockdowns/open things up once the election game is over …whoever wins …vaccines or no.
Everything the leftist politicians tell you is 100% pure Horseshit. They scream about the 1% etc… Meanwhile billionaires and super rich ALWAYS root for the Socialist/far left. Why give the ‘little guy’ a chance to survive and compete with them in a free market?
Stay free – vote GOP!
Billionaires for Biden:
Zuckerberg
Dorsey
Gates
Buffet
Soros
Most (if not all) CEO’s on Wall Street
Besos
every multi-millionaire in MSM (except Fox)
Chinese Communist Party Billionaires
Radical Islamists
multi generational Democrat politician millionaires (& RINO’s)
but yeah, keep telling us how the GOP is only for the 1%
3 great lies:
the check is in the mail
I won’t finish in your mouth
I won’t raise taxes on anyone with less than 400K a year income
You seem to have a gift for inverting reality.
Used this morning’s rate-drop-related REIT pop to add to REIT shorts.