Where to begin? First let me say I had a dreadful trading month, down 4% for October. This is especially painful coming from +12%. The recent drawdown has been brutal, targeting high beta bubble stock names with an increased level of violence. The trend has certainly changed and if I am being honest now — I have no idea where we go next.
It looked like markets were trying to price in a Trump win this week, with BIG TECH hammered, alongside alt-energy, solar, and electric cars. Today we had upside outliers in ‘back to normal’ stocks, industrials, oil, and coal — all Trump plays.
Incredibly, rates continue to rise, as bonds decouple from stocks in a way I cannot recall seeing. When markets get hammered, bonds are supposed to go up — but not now.
Gold was a safe haven and anything COVID related smashed lower.
Because of all this, I ended up taking a 3x overweight position in SQQQ, not as a pure bearish play, but to hedge against my current longs. Cash is at 25% and I am disheveled, totally demoralized from what appeared to be a fantastic month. My hopes and dreams have been dashed against the cold and rigid rock of despair, melting into a weekend Halloween in a post COVID world — lockdown edition. Nothing about today was pleasant. As a matter of fact, the entire week was brutal — massive drawdowns and losses strewn out across my balance sheets from hell. It’s all rot and it’s all because I believed in the lie that markets would of course rebound — the psyop of incredible beings being able to massage prices higher thru brute force usually ends the way you’d think — fucked.
On a long enough timeline, naturally, stocks trade up. But in between the mountainous ranges are depths of despair and wanton disregard for life and happiness. We are inexorably fucked until we’re not.
Happy Halloween.
After a hard week of trading, The Fly enjoys a cocktail of freshly milked exotic Gook semen straight from the jungles of Vietnam mixed with a splash of tonic water on ice.