iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,345 Blog Posts

Market Explodes Higher on ‘Peak Infection’ Optimism

I got fucked with my 3x inverse ETFs over the weekend. I have a fuckload of them now, 5 of them representing 25% of my account — because I am HOOKED. I have two choices, now that markets have run higher. And believe me, I’m not one of those FUCKHEADS who complains when markets go the other way. It’s al relative. I got caught and now I’m getting HOT ROLLED AND STEELED. Nothing wrong with it and absolutely nothing to be ashamed over. The question is, do I hold, sell, or DOUBLE DOWN?

If I DOUBLE DOWN, it’d have to be in one or two, not all 5 — that would be fucking nuts. If I hold, I’ll be waiting while to achieve my basis and that’s not a given, seeing the market is optimistic about this virus ending.

Sure, there will be a fuckload of issues getting back to the way it used to be — but markets don’t care about that. All it cares about is Fed money printing and resumption of normalcy. The central banks don’t give a fuck. They have unlimited money hacks and will throw money at everything in order to get their tax revenues back online.

Markets are +1,000, WTI is -6%, and gold is +2.8%. I had AU and sold it for a 6.8% gain, other than that I’ve box watched trying to figure out what I want to do.

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60 comments

  1. purdy

    Not too late for silver set-up

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    • tradercaddy

      Silver is waiting for the dollar to get trashed. It’s up now only because margin calls are over. The dollar is and has been higher so until it turns around silver will meander around.
      My opinion for what it’s worth (not much except to my Grand kids and they aren’t old enough to know better).

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  2. Orson

    The word “unlimited” is inconceivable.

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    • moneybagz

      Wrong.

      “By November 1923, the US dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks.“

      “Mathematics is the science of the infinite.” -Hermann Weyl

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  3. heckler

    Fly maybe you should check out this man Portnoy for financial advice – he seems to be punching your jaw loose and repeatedly throwing you down flights of stairs.

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  4. benbernanke2020

    cash it out old man you’re outleagued, outbrained and outpocketed.
    start spending your money on finding your spiritual self or some other guru stuff

    n.b: i’d read your political blog again anytime

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  5. peaches

    “DO NOT TRADE EVERY DAY OF EVERY YEAR”

    “CONTINUE WITH TRADES THAT SHOW YOU A PROFIT, END TRADES THAT SHOW A LOSS”

    “CONTINUE WITH TRADES THAT SHOW YOU A PROFIT, END TRADES THAT SHOW A LOSS”

    “NEVER AVERAGE LOSSES BY, FOR EXAMPLE, BUYING MORE OF A STOCK THAT HAS FALLEN”

    “DON’T BECOME AN INVOLUNTARY INVESTOR BY HOLDING ONTO STOCKS WHOSE PRICE HAS FALLEN”

    “WISHFUL THINKING MUST BE BANISHED”

    all jesse livermore quotes. I’m reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator because I am stuck in my home.

    walk away dude. I put up $3800 in paper profits smacking the oil ETFs and oil and gas sector ETFs… 3 weeks ago and walked away with $40 dollars because I can’t fucking stand going negative.

    I’m still up for the year, and still up for life, much of that thanks to you.

    Don’t be a hero. WE ARE OPERATING WITH A SOVIET STYLE PLANNED ECONOMY. markets are going up because “INTRO TO MACROECONOMICS 1” says it works this way. “ECONOMICS OF CAPITAL MARKETS” is a whole different courseload most of the BUSINESS MANAGEMENT fucktards never got around to.

    “A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong, not taking the loss, that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.”

    the bullish thesis right now is… the 1980 Winter Olympics.

    crack cocaine induced highs don’t last very long. This is the end. The world completely falls to its knees every century or so.

    1618-1648 KNEES

    1789-1815 KNEES

    1914-1945 KNEES

    We are going to hack each other to death. Soon. The retards finally have someone to point the finger to (Kung Flu) besides the banks.

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    • alty

      You are delusional. Seek some professional help. Not the therapy of a message board.

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      • peaches

        you may be correct… but i’m gonna need a red negative number for a 52 week period before my young cocky ass accepts that reality.

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        • alty

          It was only meant to be a splash of cold water. That’s a great book. Listened to the audio version on my commute several years back.

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    • edge

      Find a way young man. Embrace the tape.

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      • peaches

        i have no problem holding nothing but UGLD in my portfolio and reading the comments here until history plays out like it always fucking does.

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    • alty

      9 more things Jesse Livermore said, originally share by the Fly’s boy Josh Brown (The Reformed Broker):

      1. “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”
      2. “It takes time to make money.”
      3. “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”
      4. “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”
      5. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”
      6. “Buy right, sit tight.”
      7. “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
      8. “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”
      9. “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

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    • ericbakerbruce

      Jesse Livermore shot himself in the head – who gives a shit about his quotes

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      • peaches

        compartmentalization is a good brain skill to have. but considering how quickly you gravitate to racism and homophobia whenever the economics of things come into play… its a skill you clearly have not acquired. you are a fucking cartoon bro. its sad what they did to you McGucket.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EogbfdrGt-k

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        • ericbakerbruce

          Fuck yourself peaches. You’re clueless. And probably a fat piece of shit.

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          • wolfdaddy

            Most likely a Homo as well

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          • ericbakerbruce

            An infantile liberal. His wife must be pissed he’s working from home. She can’t watch Blacked Raw on the internet all day like she normally does.

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          • peaches

            180 lbs. 6 ft zero. 6 pack. nobody has watched porn in this house in years. nobody has switched DNS servers either. unless my wife is a better network engineer than me… i think your wrong yet again.

            my wife gets blacked whenever she wants by me homie.

            and she literally danced when she found out i would be stuck at home with her.

            im a winner b.

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          • ericbakerbruce

            Yeah right. 2nd Force Recon too I bet. Keep dreaming chubby.

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  6. peaches

    also… wheres the butt muncher shitting on me for holding UGLD long term the other day? Show yourself.

    11/15/19 was over 100 days ago…

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    • snoozemr

      you obviously have comprehension problems. my portfolio is 15% gold right now. perhaps you should re-read the conversation.

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      • peaches

        YOU: “understand. point being that these leveraged products are created solely to capture short term bursts.”

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        • alty

          UGLD has a 1.35% expense ratio and 0% yield. Talk about a headwind.

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          • peaches

            FUCK 1.35%???

            I’M RUINEDDDDDD!

            average price for shares purchased is under $140.

            I’ll sell today ok dad? my lower back just told me i’m being a bit too presumptuous.

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          • alty

            It’ll consume a quarter of your return over 20 years. You’re in it for the long haul I thought?

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          • peaches

            not that long damn. probably wont be 52 weeks. probably get out soon. maybe today.

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      • peaches

        ME: these leveraged products were created solely to make me money.

        Little known fact…

        Thomas Edison invented light bulbs so Jewish boys in Brooklyn could study Torah at nighttime. Everything else was a side effect.

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  7. alty

    Just like on WSB, which I lurk on daily for the entertainment. People are hoping for anarchy in the streets so they can turn $2000 into $5000. We’ll actually now they are praying for it to turn $300 back to their original $2000. Get a hold of yourselves. Use this time to develop a valuable skill so you can get paid handsomely, plow 50% of income into more income producing assets and become that person you want to be. This shit takes time and doesn’t come easy, but that’s why it works. Have some faith in humanity. Take the last 5% of your trading account that is left and buy Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns by Elroy Dimson. Yes it will cost you $150 if you can’t find the PDF, which is a ton less than you spent on those worthless puts and inverse ETFs. There will be another big drop. Don’t waste it like you wasted the last one, and the one before that.

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    • peaches

      101 years = eternity

      The Nez Perce owned the hills of the Columbia river plateau for 1000 years lol

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      • heckler

        F yeah they did

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      • alty

        Yet you won’t even zoom out 9 years on UGLD to see what that will do to you eventually.

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        • peaches

          9 years ago the market crash was 2 years in the rear view mirror, not 2 weeks, and markets had stabilized.

          also, i’d buy that fucking dip in a minute.

          im young and i got time to lose thus my balls are naturally full of more vitality and gusto, allowing me to sit on the golden tidal wave that is dollarization.

          there are WAY more old israelis with shoeboxes full of 100 dollar bills under their beds in tel aviv… wondering why they didnt have american eagles.

          NINE YEARS AGO?

          look at the gold chart from 49 YEARS to NOW

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    • alty

      All that being said, 5% up days are not normal or characteristics of bull markets.

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    • peaches

      also… i am in no way hoping for anarchy in the streets. thats an assumption. assuming i get my emotions involved with ticker symbols like the majority of you do.

      you just literally think this time is different… because WE’RE AMERICA. cue 80s music. cue Charlie Sheen Wall Street quotes.

      Your thesis is stupid and you know it. You are the only one’s “hoping” right now.

      if the past few weeks has shown anything its that nobody here knows what is going to happen on a weekly basis.

      and you can’t hope around the fact that the economy doesnt just pop back up when we were running on 110% GDP and 3 million people are suddenly unemployed.

      what percentage of baby boomer workers are gonna get called back?

      what sort of employer isn’t going to replace that nice old man with a cheaper faster debt ridden student who won’t spend the first hour of work talking shit and stirring his coffee?

      what percentage of them will get their old salary back?

      who is going back to normal after getting only half their salary for months?

      who is paying the dishwasher’s rent?

      who is paying the albanian landlord’s 329 mortgages… all for homes rented out to MEXICANS?

      who is paying for the landlord’s brand new 7 series?

      have you left your cul-de-sac lately pal?

      all this is irrelevant because Trump is Chief.

      Chief Sitting Bull.

      This country has been on a downward trajectory since 9/11. You knew it and changed your mind when Sitting Bull got elected.

      You are historically the demographic that never sees shit coming and you know it.

      We’re in a recession. at best. go lick your flag some more.

      gold charts and gold central bank purchases last year says it all.

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      • alty

        At least we got at the foundation of our disagreement. You think that wall street cares about the answer to any of those questions.

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        • peaches

          and you think the questions can go unanswered and markets will melt up?

          the velocity of money is slowing down. my checking account is looking flush i had to check my eyes.

          because i have not bought anything but milk and eggs and hot dogs for 3 weeks dude.

          there are old italians outside talking about who’s wife or husband or brother or cousin is being loaded into a meat truck down the block at the hospital. that is the conversation i hear out of my window every morning.

          ambulances all night long in this quiet neighborhood where you never heard them before.

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          • uncle ron

            Jesus kid you are such a knucklehead. Hopefully you’ll start back up at middle school soon so we don’t have to continue reading your twaddle. You would do everyone, including yourself, a big favor if you just pony up and let Fly feed you fish.

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          • peaches

            thanks for reading fam

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          • peaches

            middle school was fun. i beat the 8th grade mouth breathing nerd at the trivia bowl as a 5th grader. learned to play castles made of sand by jimi on my guitar upside down left handed also.

            also memorized the slim shady LP.

            stupid people who do zero amazing things in their life have been telling me there is something wrong with my brain for as far as i can remember.

            i ignored the bullshit and kept eating copious amounts of LSD and now i can see through walls.

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  8. og

    They should swap out Biden with Cuomo.

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    • purdy

      Having gone happily along with the slaughter, maiming and displacement of a million+ children, women and men in the mid-east, he is certainly meets the prime qualification for a major party nomination.

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      • peaches

        stealing tangible resources from people with a different religion/culture is a MUCH better way of supporting a fiat currency fueled regime than printing into oblivion…

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  9. tjnyt

    I cautioned not to buy work at home stocks, look at ZM,TDOC, on rally day….

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  10. tjnyt

    Doc, buy airlines, banks, energy. Energy and tech will not be allowed to rally the same day. I have all energy names plus AAL,BAC,DAL,UAL,WFC,LVS,H,BA…

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  11. tjnyt

    I don’t want to crow, i was saying the epidemic is going to end in April with all my money on line.

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  12. Mr. Cain Thaler
    Mr. Cain Thaler

    Well it seems my thinking that dropping VIX would result in a knife move was just upside down. The move was directly upward into my fucking jaw.

    But hope is only going to take us so far. It’s earnings seasons and over the next several weeks we’re going to be getting reports of the damage. Bank forecasts are starting to come in and they’re all for damage through the rest of the year with unemployment not peaking until December.

    Right now, the market is forecasting top end P/E ratios. Who ever heard of a recession with P/E ratios holding or – lol – expanding?

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    • og

      How much will earnings season matter if companies can’t even forecast correctly right now? The news out of NY was pretty good today.

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      • Mr. Cain Thaler
        Mr. Cain Thaler

        I’m not exactly sure what the news out of New York is. It’s not like cases have stopped, and there are 49 other states. If each state goes New York, we’re going to have like 5 million cases or more. There’s a real risk here that we end up having to stay in a state of quarantine into May now. I’m also seeing a lot of indication in other states (like here in Michigan) that people are not taking this quarantine all that seriously. Lots of people out and about.

        I’m not sure that this earnings season will matter. But looking at Shiller P/E ratios, we’re pricing the S&P as if this will be a clean removed event, earnings go right back to where they were at the end of February, and with the same multiple as the end of the greatest bull market of all time.

        Any of those assumptions goes and we’ll be somewhere between 1,600 – 2,200 on the S&P in a hurry.

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  13. tradercaddy

    Just dump the losers and forget about it (although you already know that- you just need a kick in the ass as a reminder). Hope is not a strategy (something else you already know).
    Just keep on keep on trading.
    A little story. Back in 1982 when the markets were getting bombed daily (due to Volcker’s raising rates to crush 15% inflation) and unemployment was rising, the markets started going up in the summer of ’82 for no apparent reason. I would run into this stock broker for AG Edwards by the elevator and he was doom and gloom (I was working on the same floor). I couldn’t understand why the markets were going up with all of this daily bad news. After all Mr. AG Edwards said stocks were toast and he thought he was going to lose his job.
    Long story short, that is when I learned markets tend to discount the future (most of the time) and they don’t care what we think or what is happening now. I plodded along dollar cost averaging into some mutual funds and went about trying to earn a living. Glad I did for a new bull market was born and by the time rates started going down stocks were already up huge.

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  14. tradingnymph

    Well our Central Bank is going to buy the Small Biz Loans from the Banks. This is as risky as Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank owning so much equity. BoJ and those darn Japan ETFs. So now US Banks can loan to EVERYONE with a Food Truck and just turn them around and sell to the US Govt collecting the fees. So Free Money for them and major increase to risk to the USA Credit Rating when all of these fraud loans will go Bankrupt. Anyway without China throwing big money this is a nothing Bear Market Rally as we move down to the 50% drop from the top back down to 1750ish to rest then back down below 2009 level. For the Virus Peaking OMG IS EVERYONE Delusional. You can’t look at daily data, you have to look at weekly data and plot on a log scale…example Weekly Deaths to total deaths…not against time to see the straight line up the world is still on. China, Korea, broke the line with Massive Action. USA action does not result in 90% plus staying put in their homes so it won’t be a China recovery. This Virus is so aggressive and when you are dealing with Exponential Growth people think oh this isn’t that bad, then you have 2 million dead. For Italy and Spain, way more dead then they are counting and Southern Italy should soon explode. Bear Market Rallies give people hope…just like a couple of days of slower death numbers…then the carnage starts again.

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    • peaches

      “So now US Banks can loan to EVERYONE with a Food Truck and just turn them around and sell to the US Govt collecting the fees.”

      Like i said PLANNED ECONOMY.

      everyone shut up and buy SPY. You will be able to buy bread and beans with fractional shares of SPY.

      fuck price discovery, fuck analysis. everyone will be bailed out for infinity and it wont cause a problem because Rocky V was a good movie.

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    • tjnyt

      Do you plan on staying at home for the rest of the year?

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      • tradingnymph

        Yes, I have a Pool and Summer is coming. Anything I need is just being shipped…btw Cardboard can hold the Virus for up to 24 hours so boxes go into the garage.

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  15. tjnyt

    While the board relishes in current news and extrapolates based on that info, the market and its makers look forward to the future based upon privileged-precious inf.

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