The yield curve is fucked up now, with the 1yr treasury yielding more than the 10yr. Banks borrow short, lend long — so this is a deleterious environment for them. Judging by their 5% pullback over the past two weeks, investors fret the future.
But will it last? What is the next direction for yields?
Look at the divergence between the Nasdaq and yields — uncommon. But the one thing yields haven’t been able to do is predict a downturn. If anything, when the spread between the two widens, it’s time to short treasuries — since yields bottom out and shoot higher with stocks.
The sector that will benefit most of a rise in yields are the banks. The sectors that will be hurt: REITs, Utes, and high dividend paying old man stocks.
Your opinions are invalid and undefined. This is exactly what is going to happen, which means I will be closing out my TMF and TLT positions shortly.
BTW: My Quant portfolio was higher by 2.15% today. What did your mechanized portfolio do?
Good day.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Trying FAS again?
I had to kick out my TBT hedge among others to stay under margin. nice luck
id like to find room to soon take TBT back
the index manipulation, dow naz, is over-overaggressive again. it’s the oversell
they’re overselling the “product”
As they did January’18 prior to breakdown. As they did reobtaining ath’s by Sep.
prior? to the 2nd breakdown
-100 dow futs to a goosed final 10min +90 close, contrived pivot, uniform ramp
it’s the overkill in effort And portrayal
You can say it’s a strong market when it’s merely being steered
They may want you to think that as another surprise “draws near”
Bank stocks suck my dick
At some point the correct move will be to BORROW at these rates and buy real stuff …and not be a bondtard. I don’t know when that time will be …so I’d follow price and the wisdom of Fly-circa-last-week and not be ideological about it …as you appear to now be.
I don’t think that rate cuts are going to be much help to the economy, even if the Fed funds went negative.
The global deflationary vortex was closer to the mark. In the short term, 4, maybe 6 weeks I think we go higher. Quite possibly past SPY 293.
Rates & banks may rise but that won’t be where the real action is.