You might think it’ll be too late by then, but trust me it won’t be. Oil is your guide, the evergreen indicator that has dominion over equity pricing. Why do I say this?
Markets are dominated by credit. Yields are coming down — which is good for credit — but bad for the FUCKERS at the banks. The companies with the worst credit are oils. Oils are dictated by oil prices. Oil prices are dictated by global demand, which is ruled by global growth or lack thereof. The importance of oil on the markets cannot be stressed enough — it is the lynchpin that holds it all together.
Early going, markets are vacillating, but oil, and HYG, and Apple are higher. In my opinion, you have nothing to fear. I have this GLBS trade going sour on me and I deserve it for attempting to catch lightening in such a stupid bottle.
What can I say? I love to speculate.
I also bought new Chinese IPO TIGR, stopped out of ACIA for -9%, and I’m pretty much flat, all things considered, on the balance today.
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Dr. Fly, Love your premise on oil. Rings true. But oil is a slippery beast that we are enticed to grab and hold and then it slips away – and pigs can fly but they are not so good at landing. They end up, splat, all over the place.
…and arguably, what had looked like a breakdown in housing, is now looking more like a bull flag.
Ferd, The first house I bought in 2000 just before the prices really skyrocketed, held steady b/c of the location, location, location. It’s now worth double what we paid for it even though it’s a handy-man special. I gave it to my ex-husband in the divorce. Oh, he paid me 1/2 the equity we owned; 15 year mortgage and extra payments towards the principle.I took all the cash savings, he didn’t know where it was stashed anyway. Believe me, he received a fair deal. He still calls me everyday, often more than once. He’s a little neurotic. He needs a harem of women but I’m still his little pi.
Collapse is the key, since overproduction has made weakness common.
Edge, are you specifically referring to oil? Because it can be stored in any number of tankers, etc. It’s pumped and parked so to speak.
Just my opinion that the oil market is weaker than it used to be.
You can trust me, I’m a guy on the internet.
🙂