I am taking a well deserved victory lap around your house — throwing eggs at your windows.
I booked the following trades — what the fuck did you do this morning.
NUGT +3.2%
MDB +8.4%
ZEN +6.9%
BL +4.4%
RNG +6.4%
FCX +4.7%
CC +9.5%
See that’s who I am, pal — and you’re nothing.
Good Father?
FUCK YOU; GO HOME AND PLAY WITH YOUR KIDS.
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Yo, I asked you not to use that pic of me doing yard work. Told you I was embarrassed that my hat was on backwards.
Well, since you asked:
I’ll cash out my Investment account (20% long equity) today and wait for the next dip
The QQQ calls I bought (see my comment under your “THIS IS A SELL SIGNAL POST”) are up triple digits
My SPY 245put/255call option straddle is also doing well, as the gains in the Calls are outpacing the losses in the Puts. I sold part of that position, but it is still bullish.
NFLX is once again defying gravity and expectations, so I’m still deciidng on this one while I leave my Index call options open
Of course, you should have covered on the 3rd when it made new intraday highs after the first half hour of trade. (Useless to say now, I know.) Now you’ve got a break on the 1/3 followed by two additional wide-range candles …with today’s completely outside the bol bands. This is the time to be looking short. With your money, I vote to give it until 10:06 est tomorrow.
You’re absolutely right and I knew it when I went long the market. However, instead of looking at the short-term trend (including NFLX’s stength that day), I made the typical trader’s mistake: I refused to beleive the market.
As i wrote about a week ago, buying or selling particualrly on a short-term basis is more about waht you believe **others** think., not what the facts are. I didn’t follow my own advice and paying with green blood.
Ah, NFLX. So why did I stay short?
Sep 2017 subscribers: 112.8m
Sep 2018 subscribers: 140.0m +24%
Very impressive!!!
Sep 2017 content: $13.95B
Sep 2018 content: $18.40B +32%
Wait, why is this growing faster than subscribers? What business do you know of that has the number of product offering growing faster than the number of customers? Imagine if a library increased their patrons by 24% but had to buy 32% more books.
“Wait, wait, they are producing their own content now, so naturally content spend will go up becuase it’s still in production”
Good point!
So let’s look only at *released* content, that is currently available for viewing
Sep 2017 released content: $12.45B
Sep 2018 released content: $15.41B +24%
So NFLX is still not benefitting from economies of scale. Because the growth of content and growth of subs is the same, this implies that either there is vey little overlap between what the old customers watch and what the new ones do, or that ther is a lot of wasted money on content that **no one** watches. If you throw enough darts, you’ll eventually hit abulls-eye (or golden globe). How many bombs/flops does NFLX make? NFLX will never have positive cash flow until they fix this.
Also, this:
Sep 2018, licensed (released) content: $13.46B
This mean that contrary to popular opinion, NFLX still licenses almost all of their content (87%). The “good” news is that license fees should dramamtically drop when they no longer have Disney content (Star Wars, Marvel, Disney, not to mention 20th Century Fox and Warner Bros). Of course, if they don’t find replacement content (not jsut a hit every now and then) then the decrease in content costs will be follwoed by a decrease in subscribers going forward.
Also, at least I have company in selling NFLX
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow-20190103.html
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow-20190104.html
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow-20190107.html
Waht really ignited NFLX was Goldman’s conviction buy list. And of course, even though GS made bets against the advice it was giving it’s **paying** clients, I’m sure that it’s *free* advice to the public is good-intentioned.
Hmm, they are launching the life boats already and the ship isn’t sinking…yet.
R O T F !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If i am nothing; and you are the best…
THEN YOU ARE PRESIDENT OVER NOTHING. 🙂
Look, anyone thats want to post sh!t about one of Fly’s particualr trades/post **and why they think that** go ahead. All info/opinions are useful.
However, for those that want to criticize his overall performance, then WTF gives you any kind of standing if you don’t post your own trades or predictions? What’s you basis of authority?
Now of course, I don’t really care what you post, but my point is that neither does anyone else.
It doesn’t take any standing to point out the fact that the man that you brilliant minds are arguing about is charging, on an open-admission basis, the masses $99 an hour for stock trading tutorials. Or does it?
FYI, the full quote from the movie is as follow: “That watch cost more than your car. I made $970,000 last year. How much you make? You see, pal, that’s who I am, and you’re nothing. Nice guy? I don’t give a shit. Good father? Fuck you! Go home and play with your kids.”
It doesn’t take much sophistication other than third grade arithmetic to arrive the conclusion that it would take a lot of hours to achieve that level of income given that rate. Or does it?