Being very oversold, we should get a nice lift and resumption of the previously scheduled bear rally. Having 35% in cash and 10% allocated long TZA, I am either going to add to my TZA position and reduce longs or the opposite. Much of that will depend on the tone of the tape. While I sometimes pretend to know exactly what’s going to happen, more often than not I am simply making decisions in real time — watching the tape, drawing from my experience and using Exodus to isolate ideas suited for investment.
My hunch is gap lower on Monday and then a rally into the latter part of week, providing succor and confidence to an otherwise weak and very fat investor public.
I will sell my TZA on Monday and then add to some longs, and most likely sell all of those longs by Thursday — booking immense profits, and then segue back into TZA awaiting crash.
See how I have it all figured out?
The week will be exciting, fluid, and I’ll be on my fucking A game. Get inside Exodus and join the fun. Invest in your god damned trade, you miserly son of a bitch.
I enjoyed last week, immensely. The down ticks were exhilarating and made me remember how much fun the market is when it’s behaving like a market, instead of a rigged cesspool for the rich. I also had a good Friday, with gains in TLRY, NBEV, DOCU, NTNX, NEWR, OKTA — and a 2.5% rally in the quant.
For the week, naturally, I lost money. My losses, however, were limited by the fact that I had limited my exposure to the market and because I was disciplined enough to stop out of my longs before they did some serious damage.
I was going to do a post about how much money I am going to make when the market finally repairs itself and boast and brag and chortle about how superior a trader I am, to the likes of you. But that’d be self-serving, and also boring. You’ve read a thousand Fly posts like that and it only serves to make you laugh.
Pretend you’re a monkey and you keep seeing other idiot monkeys slipping on banana peels, falling down the trough and into the crevasse, where they end up breaking limbs and eventually perishing. That’s how I feel when I bear witness to some of you investing. Even though you’re not telling me what you’re doing, having been doing this forever, I can feel the danger and the care-free regard for risk — in your endless pursuits to become rich.
By the way, money only takes away problems — it won’t make you happy.
Back to the subject at hand. I know what you’re doing and how you think this will play out — but let me be the asshole to tell you now: YOU’RE NOT GONNA GET RICH TRADING STOCKS. Wealth is hard to attain and this iteration of the simulation is set on difficultly level 8, meaning you have to earn your money; and when it comes to stocks — it will take a long time for the gains to amount to something meaningful. I always tell people, the fastest way to zeroing out your account is trying to increase it by 1,000%.
Sure, you read online by self-professed gurus, of grande stories — high school drop outs, C students, attaining Gatsby like wealth, driving lambos, all by whipsawing in and out of stocks. While those instances might occur in real life, let me be the one to tell you, you’re more likely to be struck dead by lightening, whilst bathing in your tub, than getting rich trading in and out of stocks.
The only way to get rich in stocks is by compounding returns, over a long period of time, diversified, and managed position sizes.
How do I know this?
BECAUSE I FUCKING KNOW IT — GOD DAMN IT.
Did you see the correction last week? Any idea how many people got wiped out?
I have over a thousand subscribers in Exodus and I’ve received email after email about extreme hardship due to the recent slide. Years worth of progress down the drain, all due to avarice, greed, and temporary insanity. I know most of you mean well, and some of you do not get enough oxygen into your brains like normal people, but will you please stop swinging for the fences? Fly is older now and doesn’t really care about notoriety or getting people to visit his blog. I just want to see everyone do well and not have to go thru the pangs of misery, a feeling that I am all too familiar with.
I’ll make this my final post of the day — a headline my kids can see when they get home from school.
I bought some TLRY here — because it’s about to bust loose — Kool-Aid man style. Markets made a nice recovery and we look like we’re heading back to the highs on the Nasdaq. For the day, I net increased my long positions, via purchases of DOCU, COUP, TLRY, sale of TQQQ, purchase of TZA for insurance — just in case we barrel into hell come Monday.
I’m 35% cash, attempting to be patient and wait until the direction is very clear. Sure, we’re oversold and the market should go higher — but I don’t expect it to abide by my exact timeline and neither should you. The big money will be made buying into falling knives; and the easy money will be made once the battle has been won and the psychology is better.
See you on Monday and be sure to click on the Exodus link to take a free trial.
A 400 point open ruined. All of your hopes and dreams dashed in yet another market crash — calamity strikes and it’s coupled with cataclysm. What to do? Should you simply sit there like a boxFAG and preside over your net worth sinking? Is it un-gentlemanly to interfere with your investment during the day? As you well know, the most indecorous human beings alive are day traders, people swinging to and fro in futures contracts — zeroing out their accounts every other year as a matter of tradition.
My Bubble Basket is still higher by 3.2%, in spite of the Russell 2000 being down 0.6%
Gains are being evaporated and major psychological damage is being done now. This isn’t margin call selling — but program selling hitting triggers and moving out of the way. The way I see it, nothing should hold this market together into the late hours. People are deadly afraid of another drop and the weekend offers nothing but respite, since there aren’t any news events on the calendar that can change investor psyche.
I’d like to give you better news and I hope that I am wrong — but I’m fairly certain markets will drift away into the oblivion and beyond today. Your weekends will be filled with regret and fear, memories of better times will haunt you and you’ll pine for the past, as if it was a lover who slipped away.
The time for half measures are over. It is your duty to hedge now, into the 3 o’clock hour and hold those hedges into Monday — because being oversold to this degree and not stopping is how crashes happen. Remember, crashes happen during periods of extreme uneasiness, not joy.
I bought some DOCU this morning, a stock down more than 20% the past two weeks. I have a special SAAS buy list and I intend, at some point, to buy all of them.
Thus far, things are going quite well and stocks are really soaring. I see there is a little selling now, most likely by FUCKHEADS who didn’t cover their margin calls yesterday, thankful for the respite today. I’d be shocked if this rally did not hold. As a point in fact, I am willing to decapitate myself on live internets, should this rally unravel and spoil.
Presently, I am 50% cash, angling towards buying more if we dip today.
The NASDAQ is on pace for a +160 open and the Dow +400. Don’t gaze into the screen too hard, or you might get enamored with what you see and end up playing yourself back into the poorhouse. This is a rally of the reflex varietal. For a day, the good times are back. Trump is winning trade wars again. The bears are getting their dicks cut off. And, most importantly, we, as distinguished gents, get to enjoy profits on the long side.
Sec. Mnuchin is out with comments this morning.
“Markets tend to go too far in both directions,” he said, adding the U.S. economic story is “incredibly positive” and inflation is under control.
“The fundamentals are still very strong,” Mnuchin said. “The U.S. economy is strong. U.S. earnings are strong. I see this as just a natural correction after the markets were up a lot.”
There’s really “no new information in the market” on inflation, interest rates, or trade, he argued.
“[Trump] doesn’t feel that he has to attack at all,” Mnuchin said. “The president is concerned about the Fed raising interest rates too much and slowing down the economy. And those are, obviously, natural concerns.”
Powell is doing a “good job” at the Fed, Mnuchin said, adding Powell “understands the regulatory environment” around the financial industry. “We took bank regulations too far in the other direction” since the 2008 financial crisis.
I ran a poll last night on Twitter to see what people would do with a +100 Nasdaq open. Here were the results.
I’ll tell you what to do — be wary of the ‘retest the lowsFAGS.’ They’re relentless and always get their way. Three months from now we’ll look back upon this time as an ideal opportunity to buy cheaply. Right now, we’re in flux and unsure what the fuck is going on — ’tis the nature of markets.
Word of advice: don’t chase a +160 open and if you could book some short term gains — do it. We might jump on Monday too, so bear that in mind before you get back into the FAZ mobile, or one of your retarded VIX instruments.
Let’s see if it sticks. I recall plenty of times being up big in the overnight session, as men like @Diddy suck the profits from others clad in pajamas, only to see it open down in a very big and disastrous way. Part of the good news is CNBC is out shilling like motherfuckers again.
In other news, here is the latest response to my Twitter poll on whether Dr. Benjamin Bernanke should come out from the darkest corner of his estate and conduct a hostile takeover of the Fed, in order to enact another round of QE.
SHOULD DR. BENJAMIN BLUNT SMOKING BERNANKE CONDUCT HOSTILE TAKEOVER OF FED AND DO ANOTHER ROUND OF QE?
I think it’s clear, the people have spoken. We demand change, and hope that it happens.
Before you start getting bearish and get to thinking there isn’t a bottom to be had in this current squall, understand how stupid you are and that all markets bounce, even the one’s embedded in depression styled economies.
According to Exodus, dating back to actual data measured from 2009, tonight’s score is the 6th lowest score of all time. More importantly, our % of large caps rated as bullish is now at its 3rd lowest rating ever.
Just 1.7% of large caps are bullish.
Bottom line: A gigantic rally will occur either tomorrow or early next week. When it happens, sell and don’t get lured back in for another week or so — because we will retest the lows.
ALERT: DUE TO ONEROUS MARKET CONDITIONS, LE FLY WELCOMES ALL INTO THE COMFY CONFINES OF Exodus, FREE FROM CHARGE. START A FREE TRIAL NOW.
I got stopped out of several upside ETFs today — and I made zero on the downside, in spite of knowing we were heading down. Truth is, I am petrified to miss out on the bounce. I bet many of you feel the same, which is why we’re not bouncing. I am starting to believe the bullshit and think the market knows something not priced into the economic news flow. However, we have a President who is obsessed with the market and I’d be shocked if something big didn’t come out soon, in regards to China.
At the close of trade, I am 55% cash in my trading account and 120% long in Quant. I am bleeding out, in line with market on Quant side, and doing better in trading — only because my exposure has been limited. Going into yesterday’s trade I was 65% cash.
Here’s what’s going to happen next.
We are going to McPlunge tomorrow morning in a harrowing tape. We might even halt trading, as people trip over themselves, cracking their teeth on the pavement, trying to save themselves from death. Over the weekend, we will have news that will provide succor for bulls. We will bounce next week and some might think all is well. This will be a grave error, for we will retest the lows, matching apathy with fear to produce an environment that might be considered to be toxic. That is when you should buy — with cock in hand, strong, and with force.
Exodus is very oversold, for the sixth consecutive day. This is an unprecedented move lower, one formulated without the comforts respite and this fact is why the pin action concerns me. Could this be the market communicating something ominous or is this merely a pit stop en route to new highs?
Faster traders might be inclined to short now and cover quickly. I am looking for a massive move higher and have been patient with my cash, trying to avoid head fakes. We will bottom, finally, when the last bull gives up and the general tone of the market is dreadful and of course poisonous.
I’ve been discussing this in Exodus and figured I’d tell you, the unwashed reader class, about it too. This tape looks like it’s having problems adjusting to the volatility. All of the programmed buying/selling machines, AI, and HFT algos are being fucked over in a very hard and serious way.
DO NOT BE SURPRISED to see a very big and outsized heart attack move to the downside. Prepare for this eventuality, by removing leverage and making sure you have dry powder to buy a severe dip.
The fun will begin, in earnest, after 3pm. I hope that I am wrong — but retail is about to get forked over, like naked radishes, soon — as margin clerks make their rounds, zeroing out accounts with zeal.
Presently, I am 40% cash, having sold out of BREW this afternoon.
UPDATE: I stopped out of TNA and YINN, for a 13% and 10% loss. Stops will be respected, no matter how OS we get.
We had a nice set up this morning, but it failed and here we are with the Nasdaq marginally higher and a wide variety of tech stocks doing nothing. This morning I bought SSTI, NEWR, and NTNX, hoping and praying to the stock Gods, proving to them that I’ve been kind and just. All I’ve asked for is to be forgiven from my trespasses and to enjoy a nice lift off the bottom.
Speaking of bottoms, how many of you traderFAGS are betting on a bounce? I see the President is out talking greasy about the Fed, which will serve him no good. Chairman Powell is more likely to do more cuts now, not less, in order to maintain the independence of the Fed.
God do I miss Dr. Ben.
Sorry to cut this short, especially since we’re having such a grand time together. At home, I am wholly distracted and now a full time chef and livery driver — very busy throughout the day; and the house is very noisy and I have little recourse for peace and quiet. Because of this, I am in bed earlier, sleeping better, and exhausted almost constantly. The last thing I need is a market squall.
Dear StockFathers,
Take down the bears with a great vengeance now and be sure to annihilate them and take from them everything.
Amen.
FYI: Current Exodus OS score now #15 lowest in our history — the lowest since 2011.
