We’re moving in lockstep with HYG. When it goes higher, stocks go lower and vice versa. I’m gonna show you a chart with a bunch of shit on it. The important thing to note is high yield has broken out of uptrends before, but not like this. We’re now threatening some important levels that could persuade some long termFAGS to break.
Markets just dove off a cliff. I picked up some SJB, short high yield. Let me preface the bearishness of this title and post with the fact that stocks do not go down in a straight line, nor up. We’re in a very unique trading pattern, the sort of thing that isn’t picked up by AI or mean reversion algos. In Exodus, I’ve been ignoring the oversold signals, with exception to our 3mo algo, which HAS NOT flagged OS since 11/20. It’s important to note, that algo nailed the market bottom several times inside of this range.
I have no idea where we close. All I do know is I have 100% of my Quant invested long, some in value, some in growth. I am trying my hardest to mitigate those losses in my trading account, which has also been hamstrung by false moves and me trying to trade every tick. I am not immune to the pangs and the bangs; but I have not blow up. I’m up, rather considerably, in my trading account this year and need to figure out how to protect my larger, longer term, investments in 2019.
Best case, we capitulate here, bottom on a Friday, and change the narrative.
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Markets don’t bottom on Friday’s. And Trump must have a horseshoe up his ass. See Ginsberg news. Marry Christmas!
Big boys loaded up on staocks yesterday:
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow-20181220.html
Then
1) China called out on its corporate espionage
2) Trumps decides to shut down the governement
3) Matterson quit due to Syria: no oen left in cabicanet that is willing to stand up to Trump
Big boys unload stocks today:
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow-20181221.html
The market may be aware that some of the permanent war advocates in the deep state will do very disruptive things in order to keep Trump from following-through on his campaign promise to end our their mid-east wars.
If Trump had serious ambition to end our mid-east wars, he would cut ties to Saudi Arabia and reduce funding to Israel instead of strengthening ties to both.
Without those two actions, we have no hope of avoiding pissing of both Sunni and Shiite fundamentalists, which means an everlasting military presence in the Middle East.
I recently saw on TV a Yemenese man holding a Made-in-the-USA bomb (or missile fragment) with clearly visible “No Step” english writing. That bomb killed one of his <5yo old kids and crippled another. I'm sure America is safer for it…
At teh very least, it shoudl be a requiremetn that ammuniton we send/sell to the middle east should not have US markings – includign english letterring.
If the Saudis want to bomb Muslim non-combatants, let them put “Allah is great” on it in in Arabic.
gold stocks not acting well; a pre-curser to a market bottom??
FLY
“We’re moving in lockstep with HYG. When it goes higher, stocks go lower and vice versa.”
hyg down; market is down
I feel the urge to attack this market as if I were Auda abu Tayi before a Turkish village.
It’s probably a trap
In for some /ES calls finally. Consider it a small gamble.
Seems unlikely the market bottoms before Christmas. People are busy, with family, and their advisors are telling them “it will come back, it always does.” They will be eating, getting drunk, spending money.
More likely after Xmas, even more likely, after New Years but before Blue Monday. In between there could be a rally, based on holiday psychology.
Blue Monday–
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Monday_(date)