iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,854 Blog Posts

GOLD, BONDS, DOLLARS — NOTHING MORE

Want to survive the fires to come? Get long TLT, GLD, and some god damned UUP.

As markets struggle, these three vehicles are flying higher, both wonderful and resplendent. With gold, we’re at a point in its narrative that demands attention. This is a bull market in the making, believe me.

My exposure to precious metals is EXK, NUGT, AU, and KL. My largest position in my trading account is TLT, and I own zero UUP — mainly because I have plenty of cash on the sidelines — currently at 20%.

Yes, markets can bounce. Yes, you should have long positions for the long term and even some in the short term. But if you’re looking for some assets that will withstand the bear market, only bonds, gold, and dollars work.

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19 comments

  1. acehood

    It’s not a bear market. We’re consolidating within a secular bull. Zoom out.

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  2. spaceman

    If the Fed does nothing on Wednesday and signals less hikes in ’19, do we go higher or lower?

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    • numbersgame

      Doesn’t matter

      If they raise, then they are more confidant of the economy. However, they will still be pushing the yield curve towards inversion, which will scare the sh!t out of investors, unless investors decide to sell their long bonds, but I don’t think that is likely, particualrly ner the End of the Year.

      If they don’t raise, then the market may celebrate in the short term, but I’d want to know *why* they didn’t raise, and it couldn’t be a happy answer.

      Best move seems to be to avoid the Wednesday volatility and then short stocks for a move right after Christmas.

      Acehood, zoom out any time frame you’d like, then compare to Dec *2007*.

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    • ferd

      If I were them and I wanted to extend the party while preserving the optics of not getting ahead of the market, I’d consider raising 1/4 here, then signal comfort with that level of rates (data dependent, blah, blah) and, more importantly, state that they are comfortable with the balance sheet around its current level. Then we’d rally for awhile. (Speaking from ignorance and from having been programmed from what I’ve read.)

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  3. ferd

    Typically, when stocks are ready to go into a more extended bear move, TLT is already in a more pronounced uptrend than it is today. So one could infer that a bear is not here …or that if a bear is nigh, bonds are signalling that the market for bonds will not stand for lower rates due to the hole we and the FED have dug for ourselves.

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  4. awanka

    This foolish pig thinks there is still some money to be made before it’s time to get in the bunker. I’m only entertaining theses here that are very short term or very long term.

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  5. bronze28

    Gundlach interview; talk about bad timing. Market wants to go up ; he is talking it down; and algos kick in.

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  6. Ari Baba

    I am puting 85% of my liquidity into Gold Bond medicated body powder.

    When the news drops they are adding weed extract, we launch for real.

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    • heckler

      LOL make sure you get the medicated stuff – the tingle is how you know it’s working

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  7. roundwego

    Vix going into stag two. Wonder how all the deep state inditements will increase fear in the markets. Killary is fucked

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    • rigged game

      What did Hillary do that was illegal? Have a MORE secure
      server for her PERSONAL E-Mails? They should set her up
      as the GOLD STANDARD for being honest and wise.

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    • numbersgame

      On the Private Server:
      I think we can agree that it was *definitely* more secure from FBI/NSA snooping than either a private or gov’t server.

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  8. ericbakerbruce

    Who woulda thunk the Permanent Portfolio model works…..

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  9. joyous__ending

    Santa Claus is Dead

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  10. ferd

    Dollar ain’t done shit during the market turmoil of the past month Dr Fly. It may not to be the safe haven it once was.

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  11. ferd

    Where’s Friday’s “you’re useless for shorting oil here” guy?

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  12. numbersgame

    Market going through yet another melt-down (VIX +14%), yet
    GE is unchanged,
    Wells fargo (WFC) and BoA (BAC) are up,
    NFLX is only down ~1%
    Utilities down over 2.5%

    Investors ARE flocking to gold, because miners and GLD are up, but should be down if a rate increase is expected

    MACD and RSI seem to show downward momentum is fading, yet the longer we go without rallying, the more likely a trap-door opens up.

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