These positions, which were trending earlier in the day, are now counter-trend. In an effort to avoid churning myself into stupidity, I’m gonna hold for one more day — based on the ideal that MARKETS DO NOT BOTTOM ON FRIDAYS.
Here’s the math.
Will they release the Huawei prisoner tomorrow during her bail hearing? How could they when she was arrested 5 days ago based on an extradition request? She’s going on a fucking greyhound bus in shackles en route to Brooklyn, where she will be processed with the other felons. How could we release her, when in fact she’s a flight risk?
Logic dictates this isn’t over and it might culminate in the sinking of a Japanese destroyer off the coast of China.
This isn’t over. However, if she gets released, I can see fuckers bidding up stocks. All this is noise for my overall feelings about this. I am 65% cash in my trading account, 10% TLT, 10% SOXS, and 10% TZA. While having 20% of my account short, in 3x ETFs, it’s not — especially when considering this account is only 25% of my overall portfolio value.
Why do I remind you of these facts instead of getting overzealous?
Because the details matter and many of you FUCKERS will take my TZA purchase as a reason to go all in on the short side. I’m merely moonlighting in these fuckers. There’s a lot more emotional investment in these positions than money and I have rules that keep me from destroying myself at the altar of risk.
There’s lots of chop in the tape. Heading into the bell, this is a triumph for bulls — staring down the worst tape in 7 years, unflinching, unmoored by margin calls, and they bought it up with both vigor and tenacity.
Congrats to the bulls. You really did it this time.
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With the way stocks behaved, I’d guess something’s already been settled on the detainment …or Chuck’s right an Xi is cool with it.
That chicks arrest is not a big deal. She will be released and all this will be mute point when they will announce that they just wantd to question her on Iran sales.
What a fucking day.
China hacking the world and people don’t think they knew about this on Saturday?
Reload tvix.
This goes to show to to formulate theories. Price action from this morning especially in AAPL gave away that they wont press it down. Especially one of apples vendor in asia warned or upcoming quarter and apple didnt sell off. TSLA, AMZN, NFLX all turned green mid morning. Follow price..u will be rewarded.
I pointed all of that out about 6 hours ago.
Hindsight is only useful if you recognize the next situation in real time.
Wouldn’t it be a shame if Nfp didn’t perform well tomorrow
I think that’s good for the bulls- the narrative is slowdown in economy = no rate increase
Late in the game either option means obligation can not be met. Payments will be missed either way.
SANTA RALLY IS COMING!!!!JINGLE BELLS!!!!!
$SOXS buy signal is infallible.
While Day Traders buy high and sell low, sitting there with blood shot eyes, staring at screens all day long drinking their millionth cup of cofefe I relax and make money.
So your portfolio is up since August? What are your top five holdings?
If you are in high-grade bonds/CDs, then props to you, otherwise, I call BS
Maybe China said ‘take her’.as part of a trade deal. Huawei hasn’t played clean for years. Maybe they’re f%^&g with her daddy.
“Congrats to the bulls. You really did it this time.”
Fly, the only thing the bulls did was delay the inevitable.. This was nothing more than a bear market rally – and we only finished the day neutral!!
APPL just peeked it’s head over $180 again and was hammered like a Whac-a-Mole for the umpteenth time in the last two weeks – the Bulls just barely kept AAPL form makign a new 7-month low . It’s fundamentally the strongest FANG by far, and it’s still about 25% off it’s ATH. As I’ve pointed out before, it’s virtualyl impossible for a new ATH without APPL – which is the definition of a Bear Market Rally.
Also, the Bulls wasted two powerful good catalysts with no follow-thru: Powel”s statement and Trump’s China announcement. It’s funny that i pointed out that Trump was a liar last week, and some peopel weres like “Duh, we know that” but then just bought his sh!t anyway on Monday. Doubt that wil happen again. Not to mention that TLT is up.
I’m long, but i’m hedged and will likely be short again by midday tomorrow.
Huawei story is far from done in my view. Extradition will not be quick (guesses as long as 1 year). Meng is being held in Hongcouver, Canada which China will much prefer to US soil. Look at the $BA, SpaceEx China satellite story in the wsj. Softbank network grounded for 5 hours 1 day ahead of $23bln IPO (software glitch). The planned, yet to be financed, Mexico wall will only be 10 metres high (30 ft.) but the technology walls being holodecked by the US of A will reach the heavens.
Yesterday’s rally was Fed driven. Record volumes in eurodollar futures, 1.5mm contracts by 4pm (300k in Jan contract alone) took all but 10bp of hikes out and had a December hike in question. With S&P barely flirting with 10% correction territory this is poppycock. Trump is goading Powell into making a policy error. Donald may make the best Hunpty Dumpty body double, but they are setting us all up for a literal financial evisceration with a 90 day wick. JCG
All good points ..but my Chinese-related stocks moved before the currencies did. What do you mean by 90 day wick?
90 days to sort the tariff truce before they come into effect. A wick is the fuse on an explosive device.