iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Fed’s Clarida Walks Back Hawkishness, Says Fed Should Adopt Neutral Stance

The bulls have two bullets in the chamber.

1. Trump-China trade talks ahead of G20
2. Possibility of Fed pausing

Looks like we might start to hear more of this, neutral policy shit, from the Fed.

“As you move in the range of policy that by some estimates is close to neutral, then with the economy doing well it’s appropriate to sort of shift the emphasis toward being more data dependent,” Clarida said during a “Squawk Box” interview.

He spoke at a time when the markets are watching Fed speakers closely for what happens next with rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell helped stoke market volatility in mid-October when he said the central bank remains “a long way” from neutral, an indication that it would be more aggressive with policy than investors had anticipated.

With his comments Friday, Clarida becomes the second central banker in as many days to suggest that neutral isn’t so far away. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, in a speech delivered in Barcelona, said Thursday that the federal funds rate is “not too far” from neutral.

Clarida noted that the most recent projections from Federal Open Market Committee members indicate that the long-run funds rate projection is 3 percent. The current funds rate target range is 2 percent to 2.25 percent, with markets widely expecting the FOMC to approve another quarter-point increase in December.

“I think being at neutral would make sense,” he said.

These headlines are, arguably, designed to manipulate investor psyche and soften the decline. If in fact the economy is slowing, we will not enjoy a bull market. We’ll get back into the disarray endured in 2014-2016, where selective stocks went up and the earnings season was littered with dead bodies post reporting rancid numbers. If the economy is slowing, mind you, these levels will not hold and we’re likely to fall by another 10% before reassessing.

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15 comments

  1. ferd

    Covered half of ROST short

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  2. Lyndon Keltner

    @cancel19 I regret to say you don’t seem to know much about U.S. history. My grandfather was a Republican, so was most blacks before the 1960s.

    By 1964, most of the Dixiecrats–including the KKK that you mentioned (also the same KKK endorsed Reagan twice in 1980 and 1984 before they endorsed Trump in 2016)–switched from being Democratic to Republican. That same year 94% of black voters voted for LBJ, who made the 1964 Civil Rights Act a reality while his opponent Barry Goldwater was against it.

    The South began to take over the GOP since that decade. As of 2018, there is exactly zero Republican Congressman/woman from the New England states. The great MLB legend Hank Aaron, a son of the Deep South, put it concisely: the Republicans are the KKK. He didn’t and doesn’t any fuck about what people think; he felt free to speak his mind, and he did.

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    • numbersgame

      LK, I know tht you have such an huge ego that you think your words must alwayw be on the latest post. Why don’t you instead do the unTrumpian thing and post your reply to the commetn that you are **actually replying to.**

      In other news, looks like the rally is continuing: AAPl $193 say it all. I just sold QID for almost exactly what i bought it for last night in AH (as a hedge)

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    • cancel19

      You may know some history however it seems you don’t realize Black Americans in general today are a new people. They are waking up and realizing the mental yoke the Democrats have had over them. They are becoming more financially successful and more educated in a better society. The Democratic Platform doesn’t have much to offer. The days of residing in the Democratic Party plantation are over!

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      • ferd

        I only wish that was the case. But the vote-buyers-with-OPM continue to successfully feed off of various “victim” groups for support.

        Believing oneself a victim is poison.

        Just imagine if an intelligent fellow like LK spent his time doing research in some STEM field ..instead of researching past and present victimhood.

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        • Lyndon Keltner

          I do spend time on my math (i.e., the M in the STEM), so please do not assume.

          Also, using my available resources for tangible social progress is quite far from “researching past and present victimhood”–that’s how Thurgood Marshall, the single American most responsible for equal justice for all, would have suggested that I contribute in my own way.

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      • numbersgame

        However little the Democratic Party has to offer African Americans, I gurantee it is more than the Republicans have to offer.

        Simirlarly, rural voters see little benefit from Republicans except for maintaining their ability to buy military weapons and to push their brand of moral superiority and ethnic stereotypes forward.

        I look forward to seeing how a Republican govornor, Senator, and Legislature deal with the environmental mess on Florida’s coast, especailly since one of Florida’s most powerful business – Sugarland – hold primary responsibility. My guess is that taxpayers pay for it (privatize profit, socialize costs/losses). Looks to me as a gift for Democratic Presidential candidates in 2020 (backlash voting).

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        • ferd

          I’d remind you that it was under Democrat Saint Obama
          – that the banksters were not only given a pass, but were systematically enriched
          – that Bernanke was reappointed
          – that GS ran the west wing
          – that Libya and Yemen were destroyed
          – that we borrowed additional $trillions on new and expanded wars

          I could go on. But this team D v team R shit is a distraction. Entrenched interests don’t much care what label some pol wears.

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          • numbersgame

            I’ll point out two thing: nothing you wrote counters waht I wrote at all, and is in fact is off-topic, unless you beleive that:
            a) African Americans were disproportioantely hurt by the above, holding other variables (such as income) constant
            b) a Republican President -such as Mitch “Bain Cpaital” Romney – would have behaved siginificantly differnt

            Team D vs R is a reality, unfortunately. How many Independants in Congress? Maine’s election reforms are showing us the way out of this mess, as well as the courts striking down gerrymandered districts.

            This is my final political comment of the day…

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      • Lyndon Keltner

        The Democratic Platform doesn’t have much to offer. The days of residing in the Democratic Party plantation are over!

        We chose the lesser of the two evils, and we don’t need you to tell us how to choose.

        Having the entire KKK within your political party sure doesn’t help.

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  3. cancel19

    At any rate this has been a healthy discussion about our country and it’s current status. We were and continue to be a melting pot of people. Seeking quality and the best for Americans should be “Our” agenda. The old divisive world we had is succumbing to the sands of time.

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    • Lyndon Keltner

      The melting pot has always been a misnomer. The American experience was and is about co-existence, peacefully or not.

      The divisiveness will subside, since the on-going demographic shifts are destiny. We are witnessing the last throes of white supremacy holding onto political powers. It is ugly and many of us are doing what I can to end it as quickly as we can.

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  4. soupbone

    Viewed from off shore the polarization is not far from tribal in the US. The media shows it too. Deflation is never fun.

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