Stock prices continue to weaken and because I’ve taken a more conservative and sanguine view of the price action, absolute morons are giving me shit on the Twitter. This is a key tell in the pain being felt out there — weaker men in ugly cloth folding under the pressure, mountains of sell orders and small rivulets of income to withstand the barrage. This makes for a venomous combination and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some brand of falling off the cliff pin action, and soon.
Bear in mind, all charts look like this now. How does one buy into that?
As of August 2018, margin debt stands at record levels, more than $650 billion.
How does that juxtapose against previous market calamities? Poorly.
There’s nothing telling me to buy into this shit. The cannabis stocks I got lured into on Friday and stopped out of the same day are all sharply lower today. In a desperate attempt at having fun, I stepped into 6 shippers today, 5 of which are now below my basis. Be careful barreling into a market like this — for you might find yourself barreling towards a god damned waterfall with sharp rocks at the bottom of the pass.
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Fly gone bear and college girls gone wild. It’s a party.
Who is advisor prospective ? Fucking jerks.
Regards
Chuck Bennett
Advisor Perspective gets a a+ fo Intuition/insight, but a D for implementation. Problems with the chart/data:
1) Inflation is not factored in
2) Choice of Linear (vs Logarithmic) Y-axis scale exagerates percentage moves of the current (larger) numbers)
3) Credit Balance may be used for multiple assets/markets, not just S&P 500 stocks
One good way to address the first two issues in a meaningful way is to calcualte the margin balance as a percentage ratio of the Total Market Capitalization (TMC) that the margin can bve applied to. For example, if you want to ballpark things you can inculde just the TMC of the S&P 500. That is ~ $24T (http://siblisresearch.com/data/total-market-cap-sp-500/). So a $600B margin level equates to a margin level of only 2.5% – not a big deal at all. So it is more a question of a few players getting squashed in margin calls.
This coulds lead to a market crash, but would not affect the overall stability of the markets. So any crash *given no other factors* would likely be short-lived. Now of course if this margin level was concentrated among retail investors and their favorite bubbalicious tech names (“its a new paradigm’), those particualar stocks would be crushed.
Speakig of getting crushed, see NBEV.
Normally, I tend to sh!t on companies that lose large amounts of money, but I made a foolish error in my analysis. When I looked at the balance sheet (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NBEV/balance-sheet?p=NBEV), I mistook a period for a comma (who puts three digits after a period in a financial statement?), thus greatly overestimating the company’s assets.
I couldn’t understand why the stock was so undervalued, so I looked at the numbers again later that week and immediately bailed out when I realized my mistake. I was up 10% at one time (thanks to Fly’s timing), but feel very lucky to have escaped with a 2% gain.
Were you high?
That unexpected third decimal place really threw me off. I don’t recall the last time (if ever) I saw three decimal palces in a finacial statelment. Think about it: by going to three decimal places, it means that they knew the value of their assets *** +/- 50 cents ***. If they find a quarter the factory floor, then their financial statements are inaccurate.
Find another company that gives their numbers to the nearest $1. It’s a ridiculous practice.
Are you still high? It’s yahoo finance for fuck sake
Are you high or just retarded? NBEV would still be +150% winner if you held from Fly’s first alert. Let’s hear your picks…
Impressive comment.
Crash who knows, starting to feel like the Fed stabbed the market and it may need to bleed out a little until Powell says he’s done or pausing.
Stockmarket cant
go up forever
“Oh where’s 27k where’s 3000 s&p. Oh where’s 30,000 dow.”
“I thought we were getting 28 dow by christmas. Oh stretching doesnt matter”
Youre gonna have to pay
for the other side of the mountain
Thanks numbers game
I knew better than to believe that horse shit.
Regards
Chuck Bennett