I’m not sensing any panic in markets and the people I know who trade are almost all united in their allegiance to the Order of the Bull market. I’m not obnoxious to the point that this should get me nervous. There are some who believe the sheep always lead to slaughter. Again, obnoxious. I’m more of the belief the sheep will lead to where the food is hidden. Follow the sheep and BAAAAH like a sheep, and then head out when the wolves come.
Are the wolves coming?
I think if markets drop hard next week we’ll be entreated to a lot of heart attacks amongst the pledged elite in the bull camp. Many will lose faith and start to become afraid of October and what it has meant to markets in the past. I do believe next week is a pivotal moment for stocks in the interim, a make or break time for stocks that could lead to a very healthy bounce and continuation of the rally, or a complete panic, led by a mania and throngs of traders spilling out of their high valuation positions in search of safe haven.
You’d be wise to adhere to your stops.
At this stage of my blogging career, the last man standing in finance blogs who doesn’t cavort the globe atop a bicycle, if you’re not selling positions after they’ve gone down 10%, I’ve failed you. Either that or you’re an idiot. And please, do not take offense when I call you an idiot. You really don’t have a choice in the matter. We’re all born into what we are. Some of us are brilliant artisans and scientists, and others are plain old idiots who resort to criminal acts of depravity for leisure. Life isn’t fair sometimes and we don’t choose to be here. We’re all sort of tossed out into the world and told we could be President if we wanted to. Truth is, none of that is true. But if we’re wise enough to know our limitations and to learn by shadowing others who are both smart and decent, we might just make life interesting enough and profitable enough to be worthy of a legacy.
Enough shit-talking. Futures will mean nothing tonight. Head on over to Exodus and be sure to watch the opening hour of trade with us. We’ll figure it out.
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cash and some protection is good. even better is sitting the month of october out. i think managers will be tripping over themselves wondering what higher rates mean, and where to allocate. blah blah blah. stocks or bonds, bonds or stocks, dividend stocks. hedges funders are underperforming, retail cash at lows, need a shakeout retracement, then rally into year end to get that performance chase bud. i dont think it will be an easy buy the dip opp this time. bunch of headlines, rates, china, trade, midterms. expect the uber bears to be in throughs if we get this leg down, then we btmfd. cheers, now lets watch some fools ball
Saw on Twitter the Vanguard 2020 age based retirement ETF has been re-named the keep on working fund. The next market break, if we see one will be fixed income ETF’s that have to offer more liquidity than the market provides them. These are no necessarily the levered ETF, just the big ones with record redemption requests (taxable, tax exempt, IG, HY …. all the “safe” stuff).
In the spirit of Autumn can we strike a deal?
I’m talking discount for Annual membership?
Site wide or I’ll email you on the low..
Show your generosity
Imperative that the 30 yr yields pause at 3.50% and energy slows its price shock…Powell is now leading the market to slaughter (how quickly I don’t know) as a slowdown looms in the US. Don’t be a fool, we’re not insulated from China, Europe, and the EM market crashes.
Nice post Fly, thanks! It was time for some reckless pipe smokers to get wrecked. Another cleansing of the market euphoria, if you will. What masterpiece of a meal are you prepping for tonight?
Baked cod, parley, oregano, lemon, butter, thyme.
That’s where it’s at. I just put together a simple, easy lasagna recipe from your boy chef Pasquale. He makes everything look easy peasy!
The thing weighs 50 pounds now, after modifications. Pro tip: don’t do modifications. But do add cinnamon and crushed red pepper as the kicker
oye baby
Argument for buying the dip …but in China, not here:
– As we freak out about US rates, note that 10 year rates are already higher in China than US ..yet China’a inflation is lower than here. So arguably, they’re already better adjusted to the reality that we’re just now starting to deal with.
– Growth rate is higher in China ..yet PEs are far lower than here.
– China cranks out more engineers than us.
– Chinese workers make less than ours. Their entry-level workers work harder, are less entitled, and don’t spend time in Human Resources’ sensitivity training.
– China invests in infrastructure, we invest in wars and in creating new enemies.
– China will not suffer a major negative adjustment as the yuan loses its reserve currency status; can we say the same about the dollar?