Saudis Propose Production Hike — Oil is Finished Until December

We have over 30 years of seasonality data in Exodus and all of it points to weakness in oil during the month of May-December. As a point in fact, the data is so convincing, I won’t even consider the idea that oil is a decent investment, let alone trade, unless during the peak periods of the year.

Today the Saudis proposed a million barrel oil supply hike at OPEC. This is your cue to ignore oil and move onto greener pastures.

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said Thursday that as the world is likely to face a large oil supply deficit in the second half of 2018, a substantial production increase from OPEC would be required to prevent a market squeeze.

Speaking in Vienna, Austria on Thursday, al-Falih said: “We will release supply… One million (bpd) sounds like a good target to work with.”

“One million. He just threw down the gauntlet,” RBC’s global head of commodity strategy, Helima Croft, told CNBC on Thursday.

Haters will say oil is a good trade now, because MUH contrarian. But you’d just be playing yourselves, as usual.

WTI is -1%, Brent -2%.