President Trump, after getting his ass kicked by the democrats in his budget negotiations, took to the phone to have a chat with his good friend, Vlad Putin. The two leaders exchanged pleasantries and then got down to brass tacks.
They discussed Syria, terrorism and N. Korea. Additionally, they discussed the possibility of meeting this summer before the G20 meetings.
This is the third call between Trump and Putin. Frankly and considering all that Vlad did for him during the elections, I do believe the President has been absent minded in keeping in touch with our friend in the Kremlin.
The Kremlin has confirmed a meeting had been set in Germany, during the month of July.
MOSCOW (AP) – The Kremlin says Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have agreed to try to schedule a meeting in Germany in July.
Fred Wilson has a rich history of making extraordinary private investments. Much of that has to do with his pedigree, being an MIT graduate and all. However, an odd thing happens once his companies transition to the public markets. For lack of a better term, dare I say, they implode.
Don’t say this Fly on the wall didn’t warn you (link related).
Twilio beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q2 below consensus; lowers FY17 guidance below consensus (33.94 -0.45)
Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.04 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.07); revenues rose 47.4% year/year to $87.4 mln vs the $83.51 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of ($0.11)-(0.10), excluding non-recurring items, vs. ($0.08) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 revs of $85.5-87.5 mln vs. $87.70 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
Co issues downside guidance for FY17, lowers EPS to ($0.30)-(0.27) from ($0.19-0.15), excluding non-recurring items, vs. ($0.17) Capital IQ Consensus; revs to $356-362 mln from $364-372 mln vs. $369.60 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
“While we are seeing some changes in the relationship with our largest customer, our momentum across the business continues to be strong, with a 42% year over year growth in Active Customer Accounts and a 62% year over year growth in Base Revenue during the quarter.”
40,696 Active Customer Accounts as of March 31, 2017, compared to 28,648 Active Customer Accounts as of March 31, 2016.
Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate was 141% for the first quarter of 2017, compared to 170% for the first quarter of 2016.
Uh, looks like Fred has a two-fer tonight. Another one of his ‘investments’, ETSY, missed earnings — and is crushing investors in the after-hours.
Etsy misses by $0.01, misses on revs; CEO stepping down, co not providing guidance, discloses additional workforce reductions
While the Saudis and friends cut production, the American frackers have been busy little bees — producing as much crude as they could possibly drill. US production rang in at 450kbpd, in the five months ending in February. Moreover, total US production increased to 9.2 million bpd in April, up from 9.03 the month prior.
Based on the current trajectory, US production is increasing at a million bpd clip.
The vast majority of the gains were enjoyed in the Gulf of Mexic, with output rising by 228k.
US rig count continues to expand, now +120% from the lows in 2016.
All of this is having a deleterious effect on the price of crude, now lower by a resounding 2.5%. Oil and gas stocks have followed the commodity into the sewers — off by 2.5%. This is providing airlines with a rich bounty — since jetfuel is bound to get cheaper with all of this crude oil for sale. Shares of DAL, UAL and AAL are higher by more than 3.5%.
Nonsensically, retail stocks are shooting higher too. More or less, they’re higher by 2.5%. The old theory was cheaper crude left more money in the pockets of spenders. But that theory had been dispelled years ago when crude collapsed and the consumer didn’t respond. Or, maybe people are exuberant about COH. Either way, this rally is 100% artificial and not to be trusted.
I do, however, like crude down here and would consider buying more, should Exodus produce a deep oversold signal.
Please remember to buy her book. It should be coming out soon.
In some sort of bullshit conference, dubbed ‘Women for Women, hosted by a terrorist sympathizer, Christiane Amanpour, Hillary weighed in on the reasons why she lost the election to Trump’s twitter account.
Boldly, she stated it was Comey’s investigation and ‘Russia’s Wikileaks’ — vis a vie JOHN PODESTA’S PIZZA LOVING EMAIL BOX — that swayed the election to the great wall builder from NYC.
She would’ve won, after all — had it not been for those pesky King Makers in Moscow.
When asked how in the fuck did she lose the white female vote, Hillary’s answer was MUH Russia.
In case you’re wondering why Trump is going apeshit on Twitter today, menacing the country with the specter of a shutdown, it’s because he got rolled by the uniparty — willing to shill at any cost necessary.
The budget deal that Trump ‘negotiated’ was a ‘total loss’, says Fox’s Krauthammer. Zero funding for the wall, total and complete evisceration.
Heritage Action, a conservative group strongly advised a no vote, saying the deal “woefully fails the test of fiscal responsibility and does not advance important conservative policies.”
Instead of receiving funding for the promised border wall, Trump got a slap in the face, $1.5b, for ‘border security.’ In other words, no wall.
Also, in spite of AG Sessions rhetoric, the budget ‘deal’ doesn’t reduce funding for ‘sanctuary cities.’ In other words, no wall, barely any border security, lots of safe places for illegals. America’s middle class BTFO.
If that wasn’t bad enough, Ivanka Trump’s pet program, Planned Parenthood, will continue to be endowed by the American taxpayer, furthering the eugenics program that the elite hold so dear.
Democrats spiked 160 GOP riders, many pertaining to environmental regulations. And, the ‘deal’ includes a $2b increase in funding for the National Institute of Health.
If you recall, Trump’s original budget called for a 20% DECREASE in NIH funding. In other words, Congress told the President to ‘fuck off’ and gave them a $2b lift in funding.
NASA is getting more money, even though Trump proposed a cut. They’ll graciously accept a 1.9% increase in funding, including $1.9b for earth science.
Chalk up another win for science (Extra Bill Nye).
Chuck Schumer, Democrat Senate Leader, was elated.
“I think we had a strategy and it worked. Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate were closer to one another than Republicans were to Donald Trump.”
Naturally, conservatards were up in arms over this ridiculous loss, with Rush Limbaugh out in front saying “I don’t know how you would carry water for this. Not that I want to; don’t misunderstand. I’m just coming up with new ways to explain what a sellout, disaster, betrayal — whatever you want to call this — it is.”
Paul Ryan defended the budget, saying the cock-smack across Trump’s orange face was a ‘down payment on border security.’
“Don’t look at the press releases, look at the bill,” Ryan said, adding there are “a lot of conservative wins here.”
The Freedom Caucus, aka the only conservative faction of the GOP left, said “Money goes to Planned Parenthood, as you said. Money continues to go to sanctuary cities, but no money for the border wall.”
“I think you’re going to see a lot of conservatives against this plan this week.”
The White House Press Secretary, Sean Spicer, tried to spin this loss into a win: “Make no mistake, the wall is going to be built.We have five months left in this fiscal year, we’re getting $1.52 billion for border security, there’s a lot that can be done with that.”
The bill will go to the House on Wednesday, the Senate on Thursday. If it doesn’t pass, the government will be shut the fuck down by Friday.
If you still had hope that Trump was the real deal, this budget ‘deal’ should finally convince you otherwise. The deep state wins again.
I’ve had enough of AMD thinking they’re hot shit. The company is steaming pile of elephant shit and now the shares reflect that actuality. Shares, however, are up nearly 400% over the past two years — thanks to an overall buoyant time for the semis. God willing, on the next down cycle, shares will go all the way to $00.00.
The hype around the stock is about their Ryzen chip, which is supposed to be as good as Intel’s — but cheaper. The company came in with weaker than expected guidance and margins. Taking into consideration that the valuation is absurd, at 38x EBITDA, shares are overdue a sound thrashing.
UBS reiterates a sell, citing AMD as being a piece of shit that should be burned.
UBS notes AMD reported an inline quarter but its margin guidance was a little lower than we expected. They keep a Sell rating on the stock as we see limited EPS growth near term to support its high multiple as it needs to invest heavily to keep pace with Intel and NVIDIA. They believe AMD has shown a good ramp of sales of its Ryzen PC chip in 1Q17 but we will likely need to wait to see how 2H17 sales trend and what the competitive response will be from Intel in PCs. AMD also reported that its Vega graphics chip is having a successful launch. They look to see if it can gain more graphic chip market share in 2H17 from NVIDIA before they reconsider their investment rating; Sell.
Overall, this is weighing on chip stocks, off around 1-2% for the session.
Interestingly, the main ETF in the space, SMH, is now flagged OVERSOLD in Exodus. The track record for this signal is flawless.
Julian Emanuel from UBS made a compelling call in a Bloomberg interview this morning, suggesting that the land apes who are trading this market without a care in the world, sinking VIX into the dirt, are likely to be proven wrong — ahead of the French elections. Perhaps Julian didn’t read my Pulitzer winning piece on XIV and how betting against volatility is the easiest path toward Vanderbilt riches.
The UBS perma-bear stated, ‘hedges are cheaper than they’ve been in many, many years. By that perspective, even if the market rallies, volatility is so low, it’s likely to stay bid.’
His core thesis wasn’t so much about the market going down, but the fact that complacency is high, alongside consumer confidence, which juxtaposes poorly against the tepid economic backdrop.
Emanuel concludes, ‘what you’re seeing now is the phenomenon of low correlation, literally to an unprecedented degree. We’ve seen it a couple times through history, and basically, it is the primary reason the VIX has been driven to this level. And, ostensibly, the reason why that’s happening is you have this disconnect between the economy growing at point 7 in the first quarter on one hand and confidence levels off the charts. From a positioning point of view, people positioned for better growth, the reflation trade what have you, now they’re waiting for the convergence of the economic data and the confidence data — basically causing a do nothing attitude.’
VIX with a $10 handle is definitely compelling, in spite of the grandness of XIV. If I were to play the VIX, aside from the options market ahead of the French elections, I’d buy TVIX — just for the heck of it.
It looks like Trump is having buyers remorse, aligning himself with globalist shills — ceding to the caprices of the war class — cutting deals with evil democrats.
In a one-two punch Tweet attack, Trump said republitards need to vote in more GOPers in 2018 in order to render the democrat party fully worthless. Moreover, he declared that either more republicans get voted into office of the rules might need to be changed, from a 60 vote majority to 51. This is what you call a Presidential beatdown — furious and without regard for anyone’s feelings.
Oh, he also said the government might need a ‘good shutdown’ in order to fetter out the bullshit taking place in DC
The reason for the plan negotiated between the Republicans and Democrats is that we need 60 votes in the Senate which are not there! We….
CMI is often forgotten in this wide world of stocks. But they’re a major player in the transports, or as some of you faggots like to call them, ‘trannies.’ They make engines and parts for rail and trucks — supplying companies like $PCAR and $NAV.
In the past, CMI exhibited extreme earnings power — into upcycles. I view the company as one of the main cogs in America’s industrial wheel. On that note, shares are surging by 6% in the pre-market off better than expected results.
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.36 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.56 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.80; revenues rose 6.9% year/year to $4.59 bln vs the $4.15 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
Co issues raised guidance for FY17, sees FY17 revs of +4-7% from 0 to down 5% to ~$18.2-18.7 bln vs. $17.29 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. EBIT expected to be in the range of 11.75 to 12.5 percent, up from 11 to 11.5 percent.
Earnings before interest and taxes were $566 million, or 12.3 percent of sales, an increase from $484 million or 11.3 percent of sales a year ago.
Both Daimler and Fiat-Chrysler are major customers of Cummins. I’d keep an eye on PCAR, NAV and FCAU today, off this news.
Does anyone know the actual reasons for Bitcoin’s ascendency anymore?
Some people attribute the rise due to the backing of Silicon Valley. Other’s say the Chinese are using it for illicit reason, to launder money out of the country. I tend to view this run as more of a phenomenon that comes across the investment landscape once every decade or so. Look, they even have Bitcoin ATMs in shitty corner stores in Brooklyn, NY.
According to Coindesk, today’s 4% move can be attributed to Japanese demand.
Just last month, the Japanese government recognized Bitcoin as a form of legal tender — which essentially means it’s now legal in Japan. This has opened the cryptocurrency up to large Japanese institutions, like SBI Group, for investment.
An analyst with an obvious bias, George Kikvabze from Bitfury, thinks Bitcoin can trade to $5,000.
He mentioned some gibberish about Segwit. Pardon me, I am not well versed in the ludicrous world of fake currencies.
“Just finished a two-week roadshow with investors. Message: We love Bitcoin but need to sort out scaling before we massively invest. Active SegWit!,” said Kikvadze.
God have mercy on my soul for what I am about to say, but Brian Kelly, aka BEAKERS from CNBC, is now a hedge fund manager specializing in Bitcoin and he’s out with some boolish commentary regarding the price surge.
Source: CNBC
“The biggest driver right now is you’re starting to see institutional investors take a keen interest in the entire sector,” said Brian Kelly, founder of Brian Kelly Capital, which recently launched a digital assets fund for outside investors.
“I don’t think this is hot money. This is real money that’s going to sit around and build the new internet,” Kelly said, citing his conversations with institutions and other investors. He also noted that consensus in the bitcoin community has moved in the last several weeks away from Bitcoin Unlimited — which would split the currency into two coins — and toward an upgrade of the existing system, known as Bitcoin Core.
Does it really fucking matter at this stage? The god damned faux currency is out of control to the upside. Everyone is sucking its dick. It will go up forever. Happy?
