iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,091 Blog Posts

Happy Krampusnacht; Stocks Plunge

The Germans celebrate Krampusnacht on December 5th (today), each and evert year, a day reserved for celebrating the fabled life of a certain Krampus, a half goat elf of Santa Claus who whisks away all of the naughty children. I do believe he does this at the behest of the very kind Santa Claus and I do believe he eats said children after he’s done. I do not know what type of food Krampus lives sustains himself on. But I am pretty certain small, naughty, children should be hiding this time of year.

Stocks are officially in idiot mode, the odd period just before Xmas where the volume is low and the opportunities sparse. Mostly everyone had a fine year and have wrapped up operations, fearing an end of year surprise that could jeopardize bonuses and fees. With only 33% of stocks higher today and my well diversified quant portfolio off by 0.28%, I am certain a great many of you naughty children are hiding out in the market now — wishing you had already sold.

Today’s big standout, aside from HMNY getting crushed down to the pancake, is copper — off by 4.5%. Whenever Dr. Copper hurries lower, people get to thinking China is somehow screwed over. I believe this is an idiot’s mentality, especially since China’s stock market performed best in 2017. I think it’s fair to assume markets will never really trade lower, not in our lifetimes. Best thing to do is diversify your investments, glance over at them every so often, and eat lots of sandwiches. The active manager stuff makes for a good drama, but it’s really overrated and I do believe I’ve proven that with my Quant strategies.

During 2018, I am shifting from weekly adjustments to quarterly. I will do this because the portfolio that I will build will be of supreme elegance, built to crush the S&P 500 with little to no effort. For a more timely portfolio and to keep the blood flowing, I’ll probably do a monthly one too.

As for my discretionary account: they’re pretty much filled with lottery tickets and have an insane quality to them. I am way more interested in automating my investments, than having to bother digging through the mud for a few choice trades. But I might be saying that now because ABC News induced me to buy more UVXY last week. Who knows?

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9 comments

  1. it is showtime

    Raise Those Rates

    Raise Em

    Raise
    Them

    Fed

    YOU FUCKS – RAISE THE RATES – FED FUCKS – HAPPY DECEMBER

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  2. ferd

    No rate raise. Rates will be kept low. Dollar will be kept weak to help domestic production so that we are not simply stimulating China with the modest temporary tax breaks bestowed upon the eaters.

    Of course, the above assumes that I know what motivates the FED …and I do not.

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  3. ironturd

    Market feels topped out. Dead cat in tech plus tax plan hot money, and of course, all of these automated investment funds that only buy dips. But today’s tech weakness post bounce is very very bearish for me. Short spy dia xiv long vxx.

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  4. cancel19

    As for me and my household, we await the joyous Santy Claus rally!

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  5. blackgld

    Santa rally will lift Dow up close to 25,000.

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  6. dchanko

    Cheer up Fly , let me lift your day a bit
    1. Get yourself set with some good speakers /headphones
    2. Youtube – search for 2 Cellos Mombasa (Hans Zimmer) Tokyo Suntory Hall
    3. Let it rip
    4. Go outside and feel like beating up MMA fighters for fun.

    Works every time

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  7. dragun

    in all my back tests, I found monthly was the best time frame for my strategy and weekly too whippy. quarterly was too long and exposed the model to larger draw downs.

    model which was up 100bps intraday Monday now flat. another model using widow maker leveraged etfs did call for long s&p, short silver and vix .. but now you know the rest of the story. this model had its nose above water. we’ll see what today’s market has in store.

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  8. bushwacker2

    Automating your investments is a sign of the times. It’s also a sign of growing older. You have a life to live. Let the machines do your bidding.

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  9. bushwacker2

    On another note, bitcoin is now trading at over $12K. It has been the greatest 3yr passive ride of my investment career. So yes, there is something to be said for letting the machines do the work.

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