Morning fuckers,
With the great vote on Cutting Taxes, this could be a big day for the Stock Market – and YOU!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 4, 2017
I didn’t sleep all of last night — because I couldn’t. Instead, I wrote chapter X of my story and mapped out how the whole thing will end. I’m thinking the story of Ghetto Fabulous and then into the depths of hell, circa 2002, and end it right near the god damned bottom of the whole kerfuffle. It’s a fine book, much better than the first — and it was written by a madman who didn’t sleep — because he couldn’t.
In you’re interested in part 1 of the three part story, you can buy it here for a song.
Admittedly, I’ve been rather obsessed with my excel spreadsheets, creating risk analysis spreadsheets, scoring Sharpe, Sortino, Treynor and other risk measurements — because I call it fun and love to analyze things that most people don’t. This doesn’t make me special or smarter, just different. Funny thing, my step father is had a Phd and three masters in mathematics and he couldn’t care less about this sort of stuff — which is puzzling to me. I always figured he’d want to partake in a little numbers crunching — but maybe this is too rote for his insane brain.
The DAX is higher by 1.47% and Dow futures are +240. It’s worth noting, the Nasdaq is only +37.
WTI is lower by 1% and the dollar is +0.4% v the Euro.
The big story of the day: CVS is buying AET for $207 or $77 billion. Clearly, the anti-trusters should be shitting their pants over the audacity of this deal, protesting to block it — but it’ll pass. We’re in an age of robber barons and big business can do as they like.
Did you know the average savings account in America is $500?
Here are some other headlines of splendor.
Finisar downgraded to Buy at Needham; tgt $25
Ultra Clean Holdings upgraded to Buy at Stifel after the pullback
Teck Resources downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
UPS upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Charter Comm downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
DPW holdings subsidiary Coolisys technologies unveils cryptocurrency hardware
I’ll be shorting the dollar today and I’m looking at shorting TLT – a seeming contradiction. Did we just launch a fiscal stimulus war with our trading partners which will culminate in a spike in inflation?
I’m long TLT for the big picture. Evntually (2 years? 2 months?), the market will collapse, and while interest rates *are* artificially low, where will the big money gor for protection? Gold? Bitcoins? Bope, as long as they are confidant that the US bonds will be paid – even if the dollar gets weaker, they will flock to the asssets that is the tallest midget: US bonds.
As a short term trade, maybe it will drop. However, you realize that TLT’s ATH was **more than 7 yeasr* after the stock market bottomed? In 2016! There’s no way econmic conditions stay better than that through Trump’s 4 years (okay, 2 1/2 yaers…) with the Republicnas in charge. Also, unlike Fly’s UVXY paly, I don’t have to worry about theta/time slowly bleeding my investment.
Your explanation is really why people should always hold fixed income.
It can go up when the equity market is bad, or good.
Eventually it will outperform, at which point you sell some and buy more equities.
Why they should always hold high-quality fixed income… Unfortunately, many investors are chasing high yield, which is like a musical chairs game.
I’m on the fence about shorting TLT. Anyway, I don’t know that the US will be the safe haven it was the last time things broke.
I’m guessing that inflation is coming and that stocks will smoke bonds. But I’ve been stock pessimist through most of this long QE bull, so my relative optimism on stocks here v bonds may be a good contrary signal. Ha.
As a good friend of mine says, consistently, “trade with your eyes, not your brain. ” It’s hard to avoid the spreadsheets, …until you do.
Trade with your eyes, invest with your brain.
My healthcare plan is now potentially going to be in the hands of a drugstore chain, who can now sell more drugs. Isn’t life grand?
Increasing drug prescription has been a trend that is decades in the making. Remeber the whole Opiod crisis? Most Americans are all about the easy fix.
Why else would prescription ads on TV be so effective? Patients – half of whom are below average intelligence – tell their doctors to prescribe them X becaue it seems to work so well for the actors and actresses in the commercials, and the doctors listen because that is the easy thing and diagnosis is hard.
Whazzup with the pics of owls lately?
#3: https://tinyurl.com/ydxe4xbt
quite the nuclear pop and glow,………
Having been in nuclear hell for the better part of the last year…
Yellowcake to the moon!
Boom!
As predicted, under this Royalty Restoration Act, money is flowing to the option self-granting ticks (e.g., SBUX and Dow stocks) at the expense of growth companies.
The dog’s in trouble, but ticks can’t help themselves. It’s their nature.
Maybe I shouldn’t have laughed at the banks.
OK I am a Bear and I say we Close Red by the end of the Day. USD is in full rally mode and won’t stop. Corporations will be bring money home and now need to dump euros, swissy, yen, etc to do that. They want USDs! Stronger Dollar is just going to hurt the average American’s 500.00 savings account. Also 2009 Bubble Thesis should finally be FINALLY popping. China has STOPPED priming the global pumps…money loans to go buy Copper, Housing, Companies are drying up…stories of young chinese buying multi properties they can’t afford and taking more loans to pay for them are all around. China and the Central Banks have made this the biggest Bubble I have ever seen..and the one rule in this game, Bubbles ALWAYS pop…it’s just learning why is the hard part.
We could close red 100 days in a row and you would still be underwater on your short position. I won’t be selling any equities until you capitulate and start to buy. You’ve been wrong for years and years about this global bull market.
@blackgld..I stated watching a bubble form and won’t go long because it will pop. Historical Central Bank Intervention was something I would have NEVER expected..that is the reason for the “global bull market”. It will fail…
I appreciate you input on dollar …keep it coming. I’m now short and am not impressed by today’s rally as yet. If $DXY takes out the 11/30 high, I’ll cover and look for a better entry.
Rally is at the same level it was at the Europe Open last night in the futures. Nikkei Futures are Red right now. Brexit talks are slipping..I wouldn’t short Dollar imho.
2009 Bubble Thesis? Wow…
Not wrong, just early….
@OG and Tonka..Bubbles form, they don’t just happen overnight and surprise everyone. I needed to learn the anatomy of one, so I started a website to follow it from start to finish.
What’s the website nymph?
@lapens just click my name and it should link over to it.
What more does one need to know about bubbles?
https://tinyurl.com/y7lpndlp
Trump will kill all tech subsidies. Fang stocks are fucked.
With Facebook, Amazon, Apple, and Google, you have companies that have troves of data about everyone, which the governemetn is all too happy to keep going just as long as they share. Of those 4, Amazon is the only one that is frothy, but it’s also doing quite well under Trump: https://theintercept.com/2017/11/02/amazon-amendment-online-marketplaces/
Did you know that the market cap of the FAANG stocks is ~$2.1 trillion? Do you know what it is without Netflix? ~$2.1 trillion.
The sooner it is fucked, the better. In 5 years, market cap increased by 10 fold while gross revenue is growing by 3 fold, and net profit per share has actually dropped. Netflix is subsidized by Millenial inexperience and optimism. It is better that they learn about valuation quickly through one stock, rather than when the whole market collapses.