Bitcoin is trading north of $7,100 this morning, higher by 6%, all but shitting on all of those who’ve been stating the great crypto-currency was an absolute boondoggle of a fraud.
Nasdaq futs are -8.
For a moment, breathe that is an take in the fact that equities are moribund bores when compared to the wondrous world of bitcoin. I mean, really, this is now drivel tier rhetoric, discussing stocks and bonds with an asset class like bitcoin making all that is good and decent look evil and invective.
Nevertheless, here I am at 7am doing God’s work.
Alibaba reported an earnings beat, the only thing interesting this morning.
Alibaba beats by $0.26, beats on revs
It’s worth noting, ETH and the rest of the blockchain is taking a backseat to bitcoin now — which must be driving you cryptofags absolutely crazy.
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At the moment it is beyond the control of the Dimon’s of the world, and will likely stay that way.
Just like fiat, so long as there is “faith” in crypto, people will store and use it. Not to mention, it looks like Amazon may be planning to accept cyrpto. Clearly Amazon’s move has to do with the recent launch of the futures contract as they are now able to hedge.
Replace “store and use it” with “speculate”. When the party ends, it will end, and fast.
“when the party ends” so like, when a tiny population of global bitcoin holders take a what, 20-30% cut on their 10-5000x gains people are gonna give a shit? just like the bull market we’re in, the money’s on the long side. i’m happy for all my buddies who did their homework and have cashed in.
It is a gold rush mentality. The first sustained bear market for more than a couple of months will very likely trigger a crash in my opinion. It’s easy to buy and hold bitcoin while it’s rising in value vs. the USD geometrically.
I think a sane person would agree that cannot happen indefinitely. When it ends, how patient do you think people will be while their virtual coins erode in value month after month? There is no underlying book value or profits or dividend stream over time to show any true value. The only value for 95% of bitcoin holders is the ever increasing price vs. the dollar. When that music stops, then what?
For the stock market bull run, despite all the “overvalued” and “rigged market” talk here and elsewhere, there are fundamental reasons supporting the rise in stock prices. We have low inflation, easy monetary policy, rising earnings, dropping unemployment, and a positive upswing in business outlook in general. We have 100 years of history to compare this to and the present economic conditions have been exactly what causes stock prices to rise.
We could of course have a 10% correction at any time and it’s overdue, historically speaking but that also doesn’t mean it has to happen. Someday of course we will have a bear market and a recession again, but that doesn’t look at all likely in the near future.
Bitcoin may go to 10,000 next week and may hit 50,000 next year. At some point though, the music will stop and people will look back and wonder why they didn’t see the massive risk of speculating on a virtual currency, just like a whole lot of people did when the valueless dot coms crashed and now people look back and say why would anyone think a company with no viable business model was a solid investment? The answer of course was greed and FOMO as prices were rising 600% per year or more.
Moonshot, most people have trouble between distinguishing between when something is/should be high/low and when it is/should be rising falling. For example, ask Joe Plumber, and he will say that infaltion is high, when Joe Economist knows this is BS. This is becuase 10 years ago we had a massive spike in infaltion and prices (with some exceptions like housing) never reverterd back to their mean. Food prices are high, but they are not risign, yet Joe Plumber still sees this as high inflation, even though food prices are only rising by 1% or 2% annually and other items such as apparel and electronics are actually dropping.
Simirlarly, you write “We have low inflation, easy monetary policy, rising earnings, dropping unemployment, and a positive upswing in business outlook in general.” However, the stock market has vastly outpaced the economy.
Another shock that most people won’t be ready for is rising interest rates. High/low rates is much less important for stocks and housing thatn rising/falling rates. So 30 year bonds going from 2.5% -> 3.5% will be much worse for asset prices than going from 5.5% to 4.5%.
Joe Plumber doesn’t invest in the stock market, so his opinion of inflation being high or low is irrelevant to stock prices.
What metric are you comparing to say the stock market is outpacing the economy? Are you comparing S&P returns to GDP growth? Valuation vs. earnings estimates?
My main point though was just that stocks have a basis for valuation, and cryptocurrency does not.
My point is that while I agree there will be an “end” and it’ll be substantial, who’s going to give a fuck? How will a bitcoin crash impact the real economy? Nada. So worrying about it, calling for a crash, betting on a crash doesn’t mean shit. A crash in treasuries, sovereign debt crisis – then maybe you care.
Well one would care if one had sunk their fiat currency into cryptocurrency. One might also care if you think a wealth transfer of hundreds of billions of dollars matters. One might even compare it to a Madoff style event.
Criminals rejoice worldwide.
Sarc is late to work today, is this worthy of docking his pay? How will gold survive without his tinyurl.assbutt
Wrong. I was already shining rays of wisdom at 4.44am while you were still clutching your morning piss back and hitting the snoozz buttn.
https://tinyurl.com/yalu534u
ffs, why do you encourage him?
The risk of recession is much higher now than a year ago. If and when that event is triggered we shall see how liquidity is not a friend. Consumer spending is a big part of GDP and the debt servicing level has reached 2006/2007 levels and interest rates are near zero. Consumer debt is 50% higher than 2006/2007 and Christmas spending plans are at 2006/2007 levels again. I say good luck with Bitcoin when liquidity dries up. Bad enough to own stocks. (16% cash here).
It hit as high as 7500 this mornin
Let me bend the fuck over as this tax bill just rapes me raw. Fuck this shit.