Dollar Index Continues to Slide; Bond Yields Rise — Market Rotation Underway

Technically, when the dollar weakens monetary policy is easing. Lower rates is conducive with a weaker dollar. The opposite is true when the Fed is undergoing a tightening program, such as now. This usually rings true, but not always.

The dollar index continues to slide, off by nearly 7% for the year. This is precisely what the Trump administration asked for. Well, they got it.

Euro vs Dollar

On the other hand, yields have been rising over the past month — countermanding the move in the dollar. I can’t make any sense of it.

The 2s and 10s are now at a 90bps spread, which is a positive side note for banks.

The positive spin is this. The weakening dollar is helping US exporters compete and the minor blip in rates is insignificant in the big scheme of things. If anything, the inflation in the yield spreads lends to an increase in profitability in the banking sector, permitting them to take a pole position in the market, snatching it from over-owned tech.

Maybe today’s sell off isn’t so bad after all. Consider the fact that markets have been infiltrated by untrained vagrants, mountebanks keenly fixed on a profit angle without a gameplan in place to deal with adverse conditions. Thus, we are seeing a flush out, coupled with a rotation into banks and under-owned oils.

Let’s see how the days will end. It’s not the end of the world just yet, unfortunately.

The tech heavy NASDAQ is leading the fray down the toilet bowl. The Coriolis Effect has affected a wide basket of sectors — with 80% of stocks lower for the day. None have been damaged more than high flying semis and tech stocks, however. The distribution is heavy and the pain for those who top ticked palatable.

Amidst the carnage, it’s important to take note of the mega cap stocks, since they’ve served as hubs of liquidity and profit for our beloved hedge fund industry. The entry into these stocks was extremely accommodative during periods of excess. However, if we’re entering into a summer lull, you will quickly find the funnel narrowing as traders take flight — serving as a noose of sorts for those desperate to get liquid and stem the bleeding.

According to Exodus, there are roughly 100 stocks lower by 2.5%+, whose market caps exceed $10b.

Some are attributing today’s sell off to a ‘rotation’ out of tech into banks and oils. This makes some sense, since the yield curve has recently widened from 78bps to 90bps; but the oil sector is beset by a horrible price of crude. If the price of WTI doesn’t continue bouncing, this entire rally in crude will be revoked inside of a few days, or less.

On the extreme upside is volatility, higher by 40%. That $10 level has been a level of support. In the big scheme of things, the $14 level is still extremely low.

Both UVXY and TVIX are higher, but not nearly as high as one would expect — given today’s monstrous spike in VIX.

“Do you find it odd that there’s been so much attention on the Trump campaign and the Trump associates and potential collusion with the Russians, when it’s really the Democrats who have deeper and stronger ties to Russia?” Bartiromo asked.

I know, the Nasdaq is down 100 and tech stocks are engulfed in flames. But how do you expect me to sit here and ignore this story? As a person who lives to ‘stir the pot’, this is the best timeline for me. All I have to do it sit back and watch the President of the United States talk shit all day, providing me with endless ways to trigger those opposed to him.

Just to recap today’s impeachable offense.

Trump tweeted to Joe Scarborough ( a never Trumper), and his soon to be wife Mika Brzezinski, these insane comments.

I heard poorly rated @Morning_Joe speaks badly of me (don't watch anymore). Then how come low I.Q. Crazy Mika, along with Psycho Joe, came..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 29, 2017

…to Mar-a-Lago 3 nights in a row around New Year's Eve, and insisted on joining me. She was bleeding badly from a face-lift. I said no!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 29, 2017

The response by Never Trumpers and the Hillbot brigade has been sheer unhinged outrage.

Dear @realDonaldTrump,

You are a pig.

Sincerely,

Bill Kristol https://t.co/2IG7yXmCs4

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) June 29, 2017

Here’s the statement by MSNBC.

Statement from MSNBC on the president's tweets this morning pic.twitter.com/xteFxl9791

— Bradd Jaffy (@BraddJaffy) June 29, 2017

Sen. Sasse

Please just stop. This isn't normal and it's beneath the dignity of your office.

— Ben Sasse (@BenSasse) June 29, 2017

Sen. Graham

Mr. President, your tweet was beneath the office and represents what is wrong with American politics, not the greatness of America.

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) June 29, 2017

Sen. Collins

This has to stop – we all have a job – 3 branches of gov’t and media. We don’t have to get along, but we must show respect and civility.

— Sen. Susan Collins (@SenatorCollins) June 29, 2017

Here was Paul Ryan’s response.

And finally, White House Press Secretary, Sara Huckabee Sanders, defended Trump’s tweets, saying “the President will not be bullied.’

If it weren’t for the banks being +2% today, this market would be down a lot more.

Tech stocks are cratering early on, down by more than 1.3%. Some of the biggest winners are, in fact, today’s biggest losers. Amongst them include SHOP, HUBS, WIX, NVDA.

Enough of the shit. Tech stocks are wayyyyyy over prices and the sector will get bludgeoned. On Jupiter’s Stone, I fucking promise you, sometime this year the tech sector will make you wish your mother had an abortion and never brought you into this wretched world.

Here are the big cap tech losers for today.

Tomorrow I’ll be readjusting my portfolio to conform with the best path to alpha. I’ve had some decent winners this week, including EHTH, GCAP and DLTH. We’re at an interesting fork in the road here, with both bonds and stocks lower for the day — offering little respite and safe quarters for traders trying to escape the maelstrom.

God willing, this whole ordeal gets sorted out by this afternoon, amidst a 3:30 ramp and we can lavish ourselves in the blue reveries of promise.

It’s unfortunate, but half of yesterday’s grandiose gains have been depleted from the matrix of the market. Goldman Sachs has taken them, along with your money, and deposited them into their vaults.

Good news, however, 33 banks ‘aced’ the Fed’s stress test — providing buoyancy to certain bank shares.

Here are today’s winners in the banking sector.

I wouldn’t worry all that much about this market. It’s merely shitposting, wasting time, like the President of the United States. Summer is here, expect nothing spectacular.

Ladies and gentlemen, you get the President you deserve. America has earned the right to have Trump in office, launching petty, personal, attacks on low rated talk show hosts — because that’s what we’ve become: gossip mongering bitches who enjoy drama.

The President of the United States just tweeted this.

I heard poorly rated @Morning_Joe speaks badly of me (don't watch anymore). Then how come low I.Q. Crazy Mika, along with Psycho Joe, came..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 29, 2017

…to Mar-a-Lago 3 nights in a row around New Year's Eve, and insisted on joining me. She was bleeding badly from a face-lift. I said no!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 29, 2017

In response, Mika tweeted this.

pic.twitter.com/8YhzcCUwM1

— Mika Brzezinski (@morningmika) June 29, 2017

Happy Thursday.

Controversial and regular guest on CNN, Symone Sanders, melted down on a panel of guests today, who converged to discuss today’s impeachable offense. During a call with the PM or Ireland, the vaginal grabbing President had the audacity, as well as the gall, to compliment one of the Irish reporters, telling her that she had a nice smile.

Sanders exploded: “Let me tell you something. I would describe this as how Donald Trump always acts when there are women in the room. It was condescending. It was just creepy. Why is the President of the United States picking out reporters, who just happen to be aesthetically pleasing, calling them over and telling them they have a nice smile. It’s just absolutely disgusting.”

Here is Trump telling a member of the opposite sex that she had a nice smile — and CNN’s reaction.

Let’s recap Trump’s crimes again, especially for new readers.

He worked with Russian hackers to access John Podesta’s email box, revealing the DNC to be the corrupt organization we’ve all grown to adore.
After becoming President, he took two scoops of iced cream, while everyone else took only one.
He fired Comey and called Flynn ‘a good guy.’ Clearly, collusion — execute all involved.
He obstructed justice by claiming to have tapes. He had zero tapes. Impeach now.
He didn’t enjoy a Ramadan dinner — something of a tradition in the White House.
He might get a chance to nominate a second supreme court justice.
He has yet to release his taxes.

And now, he complimented an ‘aesthetically pleasing’ female about her smile.

We cannot allow this chicanery to continue. When is the earliest Trump can sign the impeachment papers and get done with it?

Commodity stocks bounced off their tombstones over the past few days and everyone is now declaring the Trump rally is back. I am here to give you some hot hot black coffee, showing you the reality of the commodity sector.

Inside Exodus, I have a commodity index up that I track. Here were today’s best performers. Note the YTD returns on the far right? Yeah, the sector is still off by 5% for the year, on a median basis.

Here is a chart of the index, which topped out in 2014 and again in February of 2017.

And here is a 1 yr view of commodity stock action. Notice the fierce rally post election, subsequent February top, and flaccid price action since March. This is a sector that has been dead money since February. If you’re buying in now, you better hope the stock action is followed up by substantive news, otherwise this rally will be revoked.

Good news for Option Addict fans. We will be launching an iBC Financial Video Library soon, featuring all of Jeff’s Bootcamp videos, which are timeless. They will be available for purchase by the end of this week, early next week at the latest. For anyone who had missed on Jeff’s classic educational boot camps, this is a great way to catch up and purchase the lessons a la carte.

The Commodity King, Dennis Gartman, is doubling down on his anti-oil rhetoric, repeating the fairy tale that oil is heading to zero. I don’t know why the CNBC let’s him get away with it.

How does it feel to know that all of your oil stocks will eventually be worth $00.00?

Both crude and drillers moved higher by 1% today, obviously a dead cat bounce.

Sell now while you still have the chance, lads.

NOTE: What the fuck is up with Gartman’s hands in that triangle formation?