When I created the algorithms that many of you enjoy today, I did it with posterity in mind. This, on my 41st birthday, I know that when I was busy trading like an animal, in and out of stocks for profit and loss, I was very sensitive to the subtleties of the market. You lose that when you’re thinking macro, with longer time horizons. I was 32 when I made The PPT, which was the previous iteration of Exodus. The financial crisis was in full bloom and I wanted software that could automate my tedious process of finding high quality stocks that were technically strong.
All of the reading that I used to do, all of the charts that I used to peruse, was digitized with PPT. Frankly, with the grading system that I put in place, there wasn’t a reason in the world for me to rifle through charts or 8-ks anymore.
What I did not know at the time was the composite scores, the overall, would amount to a mean reversion tool that would change the lives of people using it. At first, I started to see patterns. Then these patterns were used to implement strategies. Back in 2011-2012, I turned $100k into a million on this blog, using the oversold signals only. It was one of the craziest runs of my life. I was hopped up on Monster Energy soda all the time, trading 3x ETFs on margin, even delving into weekly options to fulfill my degenerate needs.
Moving past that, I’m a bit older now and I want to create something new, which starts and ends with machine learning. I intend to build upon the successes of Exodus — exploring macro strategies that are systematic in nature, designed to help people invest their money without the help of advisors. I did it for 18 years. Now I want to help make that industry obsolete.
Last week, Exodus flagged oversold on its 12 month algorithm. We have 5 algos: 3, 6, 12, 36 and all time. They all serve a purpose, but I rely heavily on the 36mo, which is why I didn’t take action when the 12 flagged. Nevertheless, I know some of you did and the track record for this signal has been flawless over the previous 7 occasions.
The OS signal flagged last week, with the SPY at $235.
Off to see about a cup of coffee.
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Now figure out an Overbought signal. Oversold relatively easy in a trending bull.
My OS signal worked in the worst of markets, not just the best.
Didn’t you buy TLT and GLD last Friday ? With an OS signal ?
Happy birthday Dr Fly !
Didn’t someone here, traded the Exodus signals ‘exclusively’ last year. And well…. lost?
You must’ve interpreted the signals the wrong way 😉
He sure did.
Last year I was in TLT all year. I hardly used Exodus because there wasn’t any oversold signals. It was the first year without signals.
What is the raw data and who provides the source of raw data that is fed into this beast Exodus?
We have various data sources.
We assign scores to all aspects of technical analysis and fundamental. The combined scores give us a hybrid, which is skewed by other inputs using correlations between currencies, bonds, commodities and volatility with markets
In other words, you have absolute 100% trust in integrity of the data that comes from external, 3rd party, sources? There’s a larger issue I am getting at between the lines but I am just curious if you ever question data accuracy, the good old GIGO in app programming lingo.
FWIW, Here’s just one example of GIGO:
https://tinyurl.com/kp9qdr7
Again, it’s curiosity on my part; not criticism or suggestion that your supplier of raw data is cavalier about data accuracy. Just wondering what the methodology of proofing your raw data is.
Get yourself some Dunkin it’s your birthday
The fuck? Krispy Kreme. Cretins buy Dunkin Donuts.
The coffee you dildo smack
Happy Birthday – I hope its great, a really great birthday – really smart people are saying to you have the best birthday today!
2ndly, I’ve said it in the Pelican Room but it needs to be said out here – thanks. Thank you – I am one of the people that is having a life changing experience in Exodus (no homo). I was on a great run pre-Exodus from 2013-2015 but made an epic error in $TVIX in 2016 which I am just this month fully recovered from – I had an $18,989 month this month, so far. Not the best month I’ve ever had but pretty damn good!
I trade around the Exodus oversold signals for the general market via $SPY, $SPY calls (long), $XIV, $UPRO and any other risky shit I can get my hands on. 🙂
Does playing Exodus OS signal beat a 10 year hold on SPY after accounting for taxes?
Yes
Doubt it, too few signals.
I’m sorry, I thought you meant do I, via Exodus, beat the S&P 500, accounting for taxes.
Fly – I follow your trades in earnest. My question is why are you holding only GLD and TLT?
With the new model I am testing out, I cannot allocate into stocks unless they’re outperforming risk off assets. For the past two weeks, TLT/GLD have beaten out stocks in every market cap quintile. Judging by this week’s action, I will be back into stocks, in a full portfolio, tomorrow.
Thanks. Godspeed!
How’s that working out? How long you been following the trades?