Okay, I’ve had my fill with pretending to be a neocon. Trust me, doing this with my own money is a lot different than when I was running public money. My superfluities are exaggerated and the urgency to develop strategies that work are blurred by the daily hustle. But I will be getting back to basics soon. I’ve been developing some quant strategies in Exodus that I will begin to use. Many of you are familiar with our mean-reversion tools, for both macro and micro — but there’s a lot more built into the platform than meets the eye.
Anyone trying to do momentum, using algos, is fucking crazy. I will not attempt to execute momo strategies just yet — not until I’ve exhausted my last and final breath on the subject. Yes, I have been exploring how to approach momentum and if it’s possible to game it. Very hard.
Buying dips, aka mean reversion, is easy in a bull market — because dips get bought. Ergo, if you’re running mean reversion models, you look like a fucking genius when your signals succeed. However, the part that most people fail to take into account is allocation and risk. I have a keen mind about it and have developed new algorithms that assess risk.
Naturally, some will cast aside any semblance of hope and buy ETFs to help them build wealth. I have no problem, whatsoever, with ceding responsibility to passive or even actively managed ETFs — providing they’re doing a good job. However, and god damn it, our life’s mission is to do better — isn’t it?
A great man once said, “I shall now attempt to get rich, or perish in the fires of trying.” Quit surrendering to your insecurities and try to do better.
Year to date, I’ve nearly squandered my early UEC windfall, with gains less than 3%. I’ve been dicking around with a lot of nonsense — ideas and strategies based in emotion rather than data.
I think it’s a good time to step back and assess the market here — following a nice run by Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Netflix and Google. While the rest of the market has been, more or less, mired in shit for the past 3 months — a whole slew of high growth/high cash flow names have been quietly pressing new highs. My new approach will be two pronged — one based in technicals and another in fundamentals — something often eschewed by data reliant fags.
For now, 100% cash.
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Put it all in DRYS, what could go wrong?
Every time I look at the DRYS chart, particularly November 15th last year, I am simply left shaking my head in amazement. lol
Over the long run you can’t beat holding spy long term at 15% tax. And it doesn’t take a second of your time. Traders sell, and even for the few who win, Uncle Sam takes his big cut every April, reducing capital year after year. Trader = Loser
lol
It better include XIV…
Pause to Restructure is code for nothings working.
Where is that war you have been talking about? That’s no working either?
Too much winning, time to change it up and go – wait for it – technical AND fundamental.
You are a fantastic trader. IMO mixing politics and trading have messed with that. The Exodus market signals are impeccable. Love buy the dip for individual stocks but my personal results with it have shown a too high failure rate to put really serious money against it like I do with the market signals unless the individual stock signal happens to coincide with a market OS signal as well.
Focus on risk and position size a great idea. I sometimes wonder how many traders blow up because they don’t watch either.
Looking forward to a quant approach.