Year to date, the Dow is higher by 4.8%, S&P 500 +6% and the fag-heavy Nasdaq +10%. The top 5 performing sectors were Home Improvement stores ($BLDR, $LL, $LOW, $HD), Nuclear ($URRE, $UUUU, $UEC, $URG), Aluminum ($AA, $CENX), Semi Equipment ($AEHR, $LPTH, $COHU, $BRKS) and Hospitals ($CYH, $JYNT, $SSY, $THC)
The losers were Department Stores ($BONT, $JCP, $KSS, $SHOS), Oil and Gas Drillers ($NADL, $PACD, $PES, $BBG), Apparel Stores ($SMRT, $SSI, $CBK, $ASNA), Home Furnishing ($TPX, $FLXS, $HOFT, $ETH), Pollution and Treatment Controls ($CECE, $ERII, $HCCI, $FTEK).
The great thing about Presidential elections is the predictability of the policies and how they might affect share prices.
Take, for example, $PRSC. This is literally a play on American welfare and entitlements.
The Providence Service Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides critical healthcare and workforce development services in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Non-Emergency Transportation Services (NET Services), Workforce Development Services (WD Services), and Health Assessment Services (HA Services). The NET Services segment offers covered healthcare related transportation services for individuals with limited mobility and/or people with financial resources that hinder them from accessing necessary healthcare and social services. The WD Services segment offers workforce development and offender rehabilitation services, including employment preparation and placement, apprenticeship and training, and other health related services comprising employee assistance programs for unemployed, disabled, and unskilled individuals, as well as individuals coping with medical illnesses. The HA Services segment provides care optimization and delivery solutions, including comprehensive health assessments, as well as in-home and community-based care management offerings. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Tucson, Arizona.
When Obama took office, the share price was under $2. By the end of his term, it was north of $50. I found the stock during Obama’s second term, when it was $15. Regrettably, I never held my position long enough to benefit from their growth.
On the currency side, Bitcoins rose by 10% and the Mexican peso by 10% — recovering some the losses it endured during the American elections.
Lumber is up 20%, Palladium +16% and Lead +16%, while Orange juice dropped by 20%, Natural Gas by 14% and Sugar by 14%.
Going forward, providing Trump isn’t impeached and removed from office, expect more of the same — bullish on infrastructure, commodities and nuclear, while bearish on retail, big pharma, and anything environmental.
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The predictability of share prices based on politics is only predictable until the FED decides it’s not. CB’s in general but the FED and ECB in particular are rigging the market via proxies. One has to be a day trader with a finger constantly on the button to get out of the way when markets break (small exit door). Pretty stressful if you ask me.
Not stressful if you use stops and the right position size. Exodus helps with timing. I agree the punch bowl has been targeted for elimination by the Fed so trade accordingly.
the punch bowl has been targeted for elimination…..do you feel we will begin to see two sided markets again?