iBankCoin

Souring Relations with Mexico is Bearish for Your Avocado Supply

Mexico dominates N. American avocado supplies, controlling upwards of 75% of the market share. Prices have recently moderated a bit, but they’re still elevated around $556-60 per tray.

haas-avocado-prices

If we embark on a trade war with Mexico, prices will soar — due to heavy taxation at the border. The costs will likely be prohibitive and demand will, eventually, wane. Being that $CMG and $JACK are all about guacamole, I don’t know how anyone can view them positively with this looming. Also, there are some avocado growers listed here, such as $CVGW. Most, if not all, of their produce is grown in Mexico.

On the flipside, $LMNR grows avocados in California.

This probably ends up being a giant nothing trade, but maybe now. At a minimum, it’s worth exploring more.

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13 comments

  1. wolfdaddy

    I believe Cmg already blamed their shit earnings on the rise of avocados. Interesting

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  2. dmfracer

    We’re just going to have to shoot one of you to get the rest of you to fall in line. That’s just how it is. Nothing personal. (Extra The Walking Dead)

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  3. matt_bear

    Guac is extra.

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  4. tradercaddy

    As a kid growing up in Miami area I used to pick up the avacados (and mangos) off the streets when they fell off the trucks. They would come from South Miami-Homestead area.
    I recall a shortage several years ago (super bowl time) when there was a shortage because the drug cartels wanted a bigger take from the farmers in the area of Mexico where 90% or so are grown.

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  5. nemesis

    I want my guac shipped on $DRYS from honduras. Win-win?

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  6. dmfracer

    Also, USA is 3rd largest avocado producer. I’ve got to go hit little white balls (no racist/homo) but when I get back I’ll see what stocks might benefit from a Mexico avocado tax.

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  7. awanka

    The prices on my organic mangoes and cherry tomatoes will probably skyrocket as well. Yeah I know #firstworldproblems

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  8. jbran

    Also look at $CVGW they are more levered to avo’s and are 16% short, at $55. should bounce.

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  9. bennyhill

    I fucking love watching him make all of these huge promises that he will fail miserably to deliver. The wind bag is about to get a whack of reality upside the orange head. Its like my new favorite reality TV show train wreck , I call it Orange Is Not The New Barack

    http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-obamacare-promise-2017-1?utm_source=feedburner&amp%3Butm_medium=referral&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29&utm_content=FeedBurner+user+view

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    • derp

      My favorite show is “Benny Hill sucks his own cock because someone told him eating his own cum would make him smarter”

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