Year to date, the S&P 500 pressed higher by 12%, Nasdaq +7% and the Dow +16%. I used ETFs to gauge the performance, so the actual numbers of the indices may differ slightly. More than half of the gains were enjoyed following the election. If you weren’t positioned long for a Trump rally, you didn’t make much money, broadly.
Certain sectors truly shined this year, after enduring harsh pullbacks.
Steel and Iron stocks blasted higher by 73%.
Regional banks exploded higher by nearly 50% and semiconductors pressed their rights on the market by 40%. There were plenty of sectors that did well; but if 2016 needed to be described by three notable winners, I’d say steel, semis and banks.
I realize both gold and silver did better than all sectors, with silver stocks +148% and gold +85% — but the sector has been harangued by losses over the past 3 months — off by 17%. Plus, the precious metals aren’t widely owned like banks and semis and is more of a niche sector.
The overall composite market cap of the entire gold sector is $110b, whereas steel and iron is upwards of $230b with a fraction of the stocks populating the industry.
Oil stocks moved higher by 35%, but have done hardly anything for the past 6 months — with returns of about 10%. The lionshare of the oil and gas gains were enjoyed earlier in 2016.
On the loss side were solar -55%, biotech -35% and healthcare -18%. Summing up the losers of 2016 is easy: anything to do with alternative energy was annihilated. People started to pushback against exorbitant drug prices — partly thanks to Obamacare — and slammed drug stocks, hospitals, long term care facilities and even drug stores.
Raw commodity wise, coal was the single best performer, higher by 98%, followed by sugar +25%, lithium +23% and palladium +20%. On the downside was cocoa -34%, wheat -24% and corn -11%. Fuck the farmer.
Bitcoins rose by 120%, the Brazilian real rose by 21% and the Russian ruble soared ahead by 19%. The Mexican peso plunged by 20% and for all of its pomp and circumstance, the US dollar index rose by less than 4% to 14 year highs.
Bonds were flat and copper lept by 17%.
The Shanghai finished 2016 the biggest loser — off by 12.5%, followed by Portugal -12% and then Italy -10.2%. The best performing markets were Russia +52%, Pakistan +44% and Brazil +38%.
Of the big western markets, the small cap Russell index performed best, higher by 20%.
Data provided by Exodus
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Great pic of the Russian Bear observing the once Great American Bald Eagle playing with its self one last time.