This an election like none other in the history of the United Steaks. As readers of the site, you know that I’ve been hating on the elderly and infirmed Hillary Clinton, mainly because she’s a neocon establishment bitch. If I were still managing money and allocated long, I’d have a very difficult time reconciling the end of the rigged establishment mafia, who’ve been controlling their henchmen at the Fed to prop up markets, with my personal income/livelihood in the markets. Believe me, I understand how some of you feel, who have much to lose, over the specter of a Trump presidency.
However, you’re not fucking imbeciles and have plenty of time to prepare for a Trump surprise, which will likely entail in sharply lower equity prices–at least initially.
Speaking to reporters on his jumbo jet, Trump had this to say about markets and the Fed.
“They’re keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn’t go down,” Trump said in response to a reporter’s request to address a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September. “We have a very false economy,” he said.
“At some point the rates are going to have to change,” Trump, who was campaigning in Ohio on Monday, added. “The only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market,” he said.
Whoa Nelly! Could you imagine the reaction to futures upon hearing that Trump, a man who openly says the market and the Fed are rigged, won the election?
Don’t look now, but in a very biased and fucked up poll done by DNC operatives at CNN, Trump is leading Clinton by 2.
The market is not pricing this in, not even close.
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There’s a pretty simple reason why when Trump talks about the market, the market doesn’t give AF.
Answer:
He doesn’t have any chance to win.
Normally, I’d agree. But after seeing all of the media eat crow after BREXIT, I’m inclined to wait and see before making predictions.
One thing is abundantly clear, people hate the media more than anything else. Having them shill for Clinton all day, everyday, will hurt her at the polls.
Trump was something like 25-1 to win the Republican nomination when he first announced he was running. I definitely didn’t believe he had a chance in the beginning. But what worked for him in the primaries, will not work for him in the general. The insulting and name calling won’t get him more voters. Those voters were already with him since the primaries. So I think he has a high floor, but very low ceiling.
I’m no Hillary fan at all. I actually detest her in many ways.. but this is hers to lose. And I think they are too smart to F it up.
BREXIT – good point
I feel Brexit was different, in that the polling leading up to the vote was not a reliable predictor. Britain has struggled with accurate polling in the past as well.
Only 20 days until the first debate!
This is when I think Trumps numbers will start to fall like a rock. I can not see him winning any debate.
That’s crazy. I do not believe, at all, you hate Hillary. You can like her without me biting your head off. Don’t worry.
Trump will dismantle her, very easily, and with vigor.
There is no chance Trump will destroy Hillary in the debates. Trump is quite simply a bully. Sure, he was able to bully Ben Carson and Jeb through the debates because they are sissies.
Hillary will simply cackle (and then have a coughing fit) but then she will make Trump look like the fool he is. Trump is already terrified to face off against her.
This debate is moot, as it ‘s wrought with confirmation bias and speculation.
All I will say is based on the actual issues, Trump reigns donkey balls supreme over Clinton on just about every relevant topic.
I can’t wait for those two to enter the pit and start flinging mud at each other.
Polls are on thing, the electoral college is another. He has very low odds of winning the electoral college. As a New Englander living in the epicenter of the highly educated liberals, it’s very hard to find a single soul that says they support Trump. How anyone can watch both of those conventions and decide to support him is beyond me. The only explanation is that he rallies the stupid, angry and disenfranchised white people that somehow can’t make it in our land of opportunity.
It’s pretty rich that you claim Trump supporters are the ones that can’t make it in this “land of opportunity” when Hillary’s main base are those who rely on government handouts and blame people of the opposite sex or differing races for their own failures. If not for the promise of more “fairness” and “income equality/distribution”, what would be left of her platform. Your completely uninformed, faux intellectual attitude is exactly why people are voting for Trump. They’re sick of people like you who simply regurgitate whatever you’ve been told and believe it to be true despite the fact that the social and economic ramifications of liberal policies don’t work, have never worked, and will never work. Don’t call other people stupid when you can’t even see what’s in front of your face. Go jump in the Charles and never come back…
Fly,
If you were to bet on possible Brexit-like outcome, i.e. an outsided move to downside, what would you do? Thinking about OTM index puts expiring that week.
That is, given that IV isn’t insanely elevated prior to the election.
TLT
Trump is conning the American people. I know, hard to believe that A – he is a con man and B – Americans are easily conned.
What’s his ISIS plan? No really, what is it? He claims that he has a plan to wipe out ISIS in 30 days. He claims he knows more about ISIS than the generals do. C’mon, really?
What’s his plan on illegal immigrants that are here in the US?
What’s his plan on allowing/disallowing Muslims to enter the US?
I can’t keep up, it changes weekly.
C’mon America, smarten up.