I hope all of you had wretched weekends, filled with comical slips and falls down empty elevator shafts.
Markets shouldn’t be expected to do much ahead of Friday’s jobs report, especially on the last week of August. Do you have any idea what a blessing this summer has been for Wall Street’s elite? Clearly, you can see why H. Clinton is the preferred President. The status quo is working well for the men in dark navy suits. Profits are bountiful, tax havens are secure, and central banks are working in concert with gigantic pension funds to ensure quality melt ups.
While it’s true, all of the new investment is occurring overseas and the Dow 30 is more of a global mix of oligarchs gone mad, than a true representation of America’s economic power, no one really gives a shit anyway.
With that in mind, the market is pricing in a 33% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and a 60% chance of one in December.
On Friday, the August jobs report is expected to come in at 180k. If that number is met or exceeded, the chances of a September hike will soar. Barring some sort of market malady, the media will go haywire with Fed rate hike commentary, most likely followed up by flurry of hawkish speeches by Fed heads.
This might lead to a sell off in bonds, gold and other safe havens and into financials. Or, it can cause a true and powerful rally in the dollar, which in turn might negatively effect FX markets in Asia and lead to a flight of capital in mainland China, similar to what we saw earlier in the year. I guess it all depends on mood and whether or not investors feel comfortable hiking rates in a low inflation environment.
The last rate hike didn’t bode well for risk assets, bear that in mind.
Enjoy the rest of your 8-balls.
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Or do we get another mysterious outlier like May’s dreadful report. We all know how amazingly accurate these things are.
The fucking wild card is that woman. It is a joker with a knife and bad intent. A slimy dude in a embassy. Ecuador? Wtf. There will be pieces of womanhood and manhood scattered about willynilly like an asshole child on Halloween. Fat little bastard with a real home and a nanny.
Does Yellen not see the widespread food deflation going on here in America? Walmart, Dollar Tree, Krogers, etc. are all slashing food prices. Then rents in SF, NYC, and LA are deflating. Real-estate foot traffic has come to a crawl. People aren’t eating out less every month with restaurant foot traffic dropping like crazy. Subprime auto loans are popping.
To use employment as the only gauge to determine interest rate placement is very naive. This is not 1990 or 2005. Post financial crash, people are out of the workforce and are making money either as freelancers, contractors, small business, or under the table work. This is why unemployment has been near 5% for months and inflation has been nearly nil.
She is clueless.
Re: “and central banks are working in concert with gigantic pension funds to ensure quality melt ups”
Re: “Dow 30 is more of a global mix of oligarchs gone mad, than a true representation”
COLLUSION GREED CORRUPTION CHICANERY
Doesn’t every fucking story ever invented tell us how COLLUSION GREED CORRUPTION CHICANERY
ends?
Yet you lazy indolent 21st century american slobs allowed COLLUSION GREED CORRUPTION CHICANERY when some of us were sounding alarms that’s where youre headed
So the house of cards collapses when we go from 0.25% to 0.50%?
Seeing Clubber on the main page brought this new Mr. T shirt to mind: http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cql4X_SWAAANmqp.jpg
I really need one.
Yellen is brilliant. You suckers are falling for the bait- hook, line and sinker.
She’s not interested in transparency, she’s not interested in telling you clowns what will happen next, that’s like leaving the wolf in charge of the hen house.
You think it’s a coincidence that right after she speaks like a dove, the fed walks out the ‘bad cop’ to counter her statements?
She is purposefully being duplicitous, talking out of both sides of her mouth. It’s the only way to keep Mr. Market contained while she lets fed rates stay low.
Quit looking to her for direction, she’s not going to give it to you.