Boy did these guys wake up on the wrong side of the bed. The investment gurus ar Blackrock are forecasting sub 10% investment returns for all asset classes, as well as negative returns for treasuries.
Using the pretzel logic of Blackcock, rates will climb during a period of stagnation. If all asset classes struggle over the next 5 years, how does one assume rates will go higher? If money isn’t flowing into stocks or bonds, then where will it go? Perhaps towards higher taxes?
I cannot see a scenario unfolding that punishes both bonds and stocks, and vice versa. We’re at an ebb tide. Only one asset class can win.
Collin Gillis from BGC shits on Apple hard today, comparing the fundamentals of their business to the dead PC business. He noted how iPad revenues were down for 9 consecutive quarters and how the iPhone has been one giant bore, not to mention the monumental squandering of cash by its inept CEO, Tim ‘Single and Looking” Cook.
The lengths of Gillis’ ire grows deep and with the vengeance of 10,000 boiling volcanos. He believes the next $100b of value in Apple is, inexorably, to the downside.
WTI is at 3 month lows, beguiled by a brush fire amongst the analyst community, warning of heightened gasoline stocks. It’s important to note and bear mention, for the better part of the past month, all the while crude oil has been driven lower by an over abundance in supplies, oil stocks have risen.
According to Exodus, the median return for the independent oil and gas sector is up around 3%, while crude oil has dropped by more than 11%.
What sort of shit is that? Moreover, how long do you Devils expect fantasy land to continue to infect the minds of investors?
Oil stocks are getting hammered today.
The issue of oil ties in directly to the fate of American markets, not BREXIT. The market cannot trade higher with oil diving lower, not with a debt storm brewing in less than 12 months. The idea that the Fed is contemplating another rate hike again is bellyaching comical. They don’t have a leg to stand on and should refrain from jawboning about rate hikes, when we know they’re full of shit. Their propaganda campaigns have worked markets up into a frenzy. After all, we’re all record highs. But the institution of the Federal Reserve and its integrity should be above these games.
Okay, try to stay with me on this one for more than a few seconds. As the good analyst from Morgan points out, the true demand for crude is the refineries. They buy the stuff, refine it, then sell it to you. Well, apparently there is a very grave cause for concern, as an oversupply of gas stocks threatens the very fabric of western civilization.
Cliff notes version:
Gas inventories are at 5 yr highs.
Crude oil demand trending below refined product demand for first time in three years.
Doom
Any questions?
The global oil market is “severely oversupplied” with gasoline — with stocks at a five-year high — serving as a blow to crude prices from next month, reckon Morgan Stanley analysts led by Adam Longson.
In a report published on Sunday, the analysts foresee “worrisome trends” for oil supply and demand, led by refineries generating too much gasoline in recent months. Faced with the need to cut back on capacity utilization to protect profit margins, these refineries are set to crimp crude oil purchases and drag prices lower, the analysts say.
“Crude oil demand is trending below refined product demand for the first time in three years,” they write. “Refineries are the true consumer of crude oil, and crude oil demand is ultimately more important than aggregate refined product demand for oil balances. Given the oversupply in the refined product markets, fading refinery margins, and economic run cuts, we expect crude oil demand to deteriorate further over the coming months.”
Refinery stocks have been ravaged this year, with shares of WNR off by 40%. Others in the space, such as ALJ, HFC, VLO and DK sport similar losses.
Yeah, this is one of those watershed moments that you normally don’t pay attention to, because you’re too busy jamming cocaine cubes into your noses. But, amidst all the awesomeness and fun, China just declared news printed on the internet illegal. If you want to post ‘current affairs’, you’ll need to get it from state sponsored news agencies. This is their verbiage, not mines.
China’s top internet regulator ordered major online companies including Sina Corp. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. to stop original news reporting, the latest effort by the government to tighten its grip over the country’s web and information industries.
The Cyberspace Administration of China imposed the ban on several major news portals, including Sohu.com Inc. and NetEase Inc., Chinese media reported in identically worded articles citing an unidentified official from the agency’s Beijing office. The companies have “seriously violated” internet regulations by carrying plenty of news content obtained through original reporting, causing “huge negative effects,” according to a report that appeared in The Paper on Sunday.
The agency instructed the operators of mobile and online news services to dismantle “current-affairs news” operations on Friday, after earlier calling a halt to such activity at Tencent, according to people familiar with the situation. Like its peers, Asia’s largest internet company had developed a news operation and grown its team. Henceforth, they and other services can only carry reports provided by government-controlled print or online media, the people said, asking not to be identified because the issue is politically sensitive.
The sweeping ban gives authorities near-absolute control over online news and political discourse, in keeping with a broader crackdown on information increasingly distributed over the web and mobile devices. President Xi Jinping has stressed that Chinese media must serve the interests of the ruling Communist Party.
Off the top of my head, this is bad news for SOHU and BIDU. Maybe this explains the jump in SPU, as people are drinking the koolaid, literally, and perhaps spiking it with a little life ending arsenic.
I don’t need to see MOAR. China is a short, this much I’m convinced. Shares of motherfucking Sky People Fruit Juice are higher by 600% the last month.
Look at all of them gains the past 5 days.
I don’t give a shit what the market pundits say, Dennis Gartman and the other crazy people inside my teevee box. This right here is the apocalypse. There is nothing further needed to discuss.
Good morning gents. Crude is collapsing again. Might I use that verbiage or is it a little strong for this time of morning? Let’s just say crude is having a rough go of it this morning, in spite of the controlled 9 week decline in inventories. They’re really trying to boost oil prices, quite desperately indeed.
Traders are now positioning for a decline below $40. Without question, this would have a deleterious effect on stocks.
“People are looking ahead to the fall and are worried,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “There’s more and more talk of prices going south of $40 and as a result people are going short.”
Money managers added the most bets in a year on falling West Texas Intermediate crude prices during the week ended July 19, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. That pulled their net-long position to the lowest since March. WTI dropped 4.6 percent to $44.65 a barrel in the report week and traded at $43.85 as of 10:26 a.m. London time on Monday.
With weekly Energy Information Administration data showing U.S. gasoline stockpiles at the highest seasonal level since at least 1990, refiners may shut sooner and for longer ahead of the Labor Day holiday in early September, the end of the driving season.
“With gasoline supplies the highest since April, refiners may pull some projects forward,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “This will take more support away from the market and add to the broader problem of excess supply.”
Hedge funds’ net-long position in WTI fell by 23,665 futures and options combined to 156,804, CFTC data showed. Shorts surged 24 percent, while longs, or bets on rising prices, increased 1.4 percent.
In other markets, net-bullish bets on Nymex gasoline dropped 18 percent to 1,020 contracts, the lowest since November. Gasoline futures fell 3.8 percent. Net-long wagers on U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel decreased 19 percent to 16,640 contracts. Futures slipped 5.4 percent.
“If we’ve gone through the bulk of the summer driving season and haven’t done much damage to gasoline supply, refiners are going to react,” said Michael D. Cohen, an analyst at Barclays Plc in New York. “It will be hard to find investors that are willing to go long.”
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted production 0.7 percent to 32.9 million barrels a day in June, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Russian output will climb by 590,000 barrels a day over the next three years to exceed the former Soviet record, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said last week.
Even as U.S. crude stockpiles have dropped nine straight weeks amid supply disruptions in Canada and Nigeria, the longest streak in EIA data going back to 1982, the seeds of higher future output are being sown. Drillers targeting crude in the U.S. added 41 rigs over the past four weeks, Baker Hughes Inc. data show.
“What’s striking about the nine-week streak is it’s consistency, not it’s overall size,” Citi’s Evans said. “Back in May when the disruptions in Canada and Nigeria were at their peak, there were estimates that inventories would drop an additional 10 to 20 million barrels on top of the normal seasonal drop. Stockpiles are actually down a little less than is normal.”
For those of you unfamiliar with the history of 12631, it was a spin off from Exodus, which was then named The PPT. For many years, it had served as an independent premium service of iBankCoin, helping traders navigate the market in real time throughout the trading day. With the development of Exodus and my focus on rapidly expanding the software and its services, the good folks over at iBankCoin believe that folding 12631 back into Exodus, in order to meld our algorithmic platform with the real time trading room, is something that will both be appreciated and needed for all of our members in the years to come. By joining the two services, members of both 12631 and Exodus will realize extreme value, a widening expansion of professional analysis and a much bigger audience of top hatted gentlemen to discuss market events, yachting, and of course how to properly smoke a gentleman’s pipe.
What does this mean for you?
If you are a 12631 sub, you will now receive Exodus for free.
If you are an Exodus sub, you will now receive 12631 for free.
If you are a member of both services, you are either entitled to a refund or an optional extension for the combined services.
Additionally, The Option Addict will now offer his services, exclusively, for After Hours with Option Addict and not be a regular addition in 12631 anymore. Don’t worry, Jeff and I are still besties. This was a joint decision and he will honor any 12631 member subscription transfer to his personal service. Please contact me for details.
The new Pelican Room will be led by Ragin Cajun and myself. I will be keeping my top 5 picks updated and posted at all times, in addition to all of the algorithmic data and screens that Exodus provides.
Also, and most importantly, I sent cease and desist letter, by certified mail, to myself–demanding that I halt the fucking politics and head chopping news. Frankly, it was making me miserable and I was beginning to dread reading the news, as it was affecting my mood. With that being said, feel free to discuss politics and head chopping all you want in the comments section at iBC and if another blogger here wants to pick up my mantle, so be it. However, now that 12631 is merging into Exodus, I insist that all commentary in our newly adorned joint halls remain focused on finance only. I’ve never discussed anything but stocks in Exodus and I intend to continue that tradition now with the merger.
For those who were fence sitters, hemming and hawing about whether or not to join either service, this is my gift to you.
(Tips hat)
Good night gents. See you in the morning.
If you have questions or concerns, email me at Flybroker at gmail.com
This might not be the horrible news that the company is leading us to believe. After all, they just launched the thing and it’s a free app. The real money will be made from the tailwinds enjoyed from the app, such as partnerships, merchandise, in app purchases etc. Nonetheless, the hot money is bellowing out with vigor in Tokyo this evening, with shares off by almost 16%.
“The content of the announcement itself is not that shocking, but it is a surprise they said it on Friday instead of when they report earnings” later this week, said Nobuyuki Fujimoto, a senior market analyst at SBI Securities Co. “The game has been published in Japan, so for the time being we’ve exhausted all the catalysts.”
This might be the buying opportunity that so many of you Poke-nerds were waiting for. $5.6b has been wiped out from its market cap this evening.
It was just announced that Yahoo will fucking disappear, like a ghost during a cleansing, for just $5 billion. Both Yahoo Japan and their Alibaba stake will be ex’d out of the transaction, leaving the core business of Yahoo to be maligned and laughed at, by the many, as a failure of epic proportions.
Back in 2000, the company was valued at $125b. Back in 2008, MSFT bid $45b for them. I realize that it included both the Yahoo Japan and burgeoning Alibaba stake, which started out at $1b in 2005–but those stakes weren’t worth jack shit back then.
BEHOLD the grandeur and monumental failure of a Ms. Mayer, a singular person who has ransacked Yahoo, as well as her cronies, for all of its riches, whilst driving the core business so far into the ground, Verizon barely spit at it and bought it whole.
NOTE:. M. Mayers gets one final payday, $55m to leave, post haste.
