Britain is going to leave the EU. As of now, all of the fear mongering and polls that suggested Britain would choose ‘remain’ were, inexorably, wrong.
What to expect tomorrow?
You shall feel the sharpest end of my blade, the one that I’ve been swinging in the wind since December the 31st, 2015.
FTSE futures are down nearly 9%. And, more importantly, US futures are lower by more than 500. The pound is off the most in 24 years, off by 7.5%.
The gamblers in England have switched sides, lads, now calling for an 87% chance of BREXIT. The two year bond’s yield is down 18% now. Gold is soaring. I think it’s fair to declare, without equivocation, “The Fly” wins again.
There is no way we bounce tomorrow with these dislocations present. There is an undeniable bias towards the bull camp, heading into this vote, which will make the unwind much worse than it should be. Financial markets are going to tighten and break.
I’ll be posting through the duration of the vote, so stay tuned.
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On behalf of the reading class, Thanks for all the hard work and updates.
This wouldn’t be nearly as fun without the IBC camp.
Dr. Fly, have you ever seen the Nikkei 225 futures down -1002? and the Dow -553? before?
yes, 2008, 2009
We came back from that, we’ll come back from this, given time. Appreciate all the warnings you’ve given. Hopefully the ark will land on safe ground soon.
Unless this causes some sort of financial institution to be put at risk of failure….not sweating.
I’m a buyer at DOW 16,999, buying more at 16,500 or so.
Stuff like AMGN, JNJ, HD, MSFT will be buys
This also puts Yellen into a cage (where she belongs) and high volatility until November as it makes folks think DT can always pull an upset up to the finish line
TODAY’S TAPE WAS AN ORCHESTRATED TRICK
THE E.O.S PANIC-BUYING????????
Where’s BraveFlaps! BraaaaaaaaaveFlaappppppps
CBs said they will backstop but
THIS
…….COULD
…………………..BE
THEBLACKSWAN
The odds makers had it at a win
I think many folks got fooled.
This is basically a -14 point underdog winning the Super Bowl
What I don’t understand is why the vote is so close. I would have expected the vast majority to have a very definite opinion one way or another, but obviously they don’t.
I fucking told you kid. Whatever you did not want would happen. That is called fucking KARMA.
I am for Brexit. But I know that who I actually am has no effect on your idea of what I am.
You and Nigel Farage will not sleep till Saturday. Need a good movie pick for Le Cinema.
I can’t believe crash puts pay. No way.
on election year it pays and pays big.
all ready there. 250% short on NQ and RUT. lets hope this is the start of the big one. cus in reality the markets are filthy and need a good washing. Will be ready to turn those shorts in PM’s when we hit 666 on spx. crazy talk? it is election year you know.
I own a decent sized position in a UK cyclical and am going to get hit by the market drop and the FX hit. I’ve owned it for three years from much lower prices and couldn’t bring myself to sell it over this shit.
So many people were on the wrong side of this trade. Asshole hedge funds banking on their stupid private polling data and bookmakers. I mean really? Bookmakers driving capital market prices?! It will be painful tomorrow, but I’ll survive… sometimes you get clipped when you speed chop carrots with your balls out on the cutting board. I’ll buy the fear at some point… It’s a 2 year transition leaving the powers that be plenty of time to fuck around with this. Also means beardless Yellen can’t jack rates and probably is more likely to ease with the $ strength.
Hang in there….preserve capital
Cut loses…survive to play again
consider that there is a whole lot of unrealized volatility if vix futures breaks 22 then there will be a run on the vix shorts. the line to get out the door will be very narrow for vix if brexit is confirmed. I am sure they will break the markets to stop the run. Watch douche bank for signs collapse.
Congratulations to the United Kingdom!
FREEDOM!
Fly! Lower the ladder! I can scrub barnacles off the ark!
The UK pollsters have blown it again. Even their exit polls are not even close.
How could anyone put faith in polls of 860 mobile phone users, 1k Uk’ers, 2k, these sample sizes never lent themselves to be a reliable metric.
The Fly- I owe you a great deal. I went from zero gold exposure to 25%+, sold all my market etfs a week ago, and bought Treasuries yesterday for 10% exposure, along with 25% sitting in cash. Without your mantra drilling a hole in my brain, I would have followed the lemmings melting up to the sun.
YOU ARE THE MAN.
BBC just declared Leave as the winners.
Leave 14.1m
Remain 13.2m
16.8m is the goal.