This stock is going seed fucking crazy in the pre-market, now up 16%.
It started off with a whisper that BASF would bid for the company. Traders woke up to that, scratched their balls, and bid MON higher by 6%. Then an hour later, Bloomberg broke a story, likely leaked by some fuckhead attorney, that Bayer would bid $40 billion for the ornery seed giant–sending shares through the fucking roof.
If House DuPont could merge, so can the birds at Monsanto. My best guess, this deal gets done at higher prices.
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Monsanto is a stock waiting for a Black Swan. They are bascailly a monopoly. If BASF buys them, this will make them more so. Unlike Health Care or Wall Street, I don’t think they have a friend in Hillary or Trump.
I suggest any potential longs read:
“Executive Order — Steps to Increase Competition and Better Inform Consumers and Workers to Support Continued Growth of the American Economy” White House, April 15, 2016
“Section 1. Policy. Maintaining, encouraging, and supporting a fair, efficient, and competitive marketplace is a cornerstone of the American economy. Consumers and workers need both competitive markets and information to make informed choices….
The Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) have a proven record of detecting and stopping anticompetitive conduct and challenging mergers and acquisitions that threaten to consolidate markets and reduce competition….
Such Government-wide action is essential to ensuring that consumers, workers, startups, small businesses, and ***farms*** reap the full benefits of competitive markets.”
My suggestion: wait for the deal to be announced, short MON, and watch Monsanto choke when the deal gets busted.