My opinion is that crude oil is going to undergo a very sharp pullback over the next 4 weeks. Seasonality factors do not favor commodities. Moreover, since the market runs on crude, I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you the market was going to plummet in a most harrowing fashion alongside with it, in very short order.
Nevertheless, I’ve had my chance to profit from XLE and the timing was off. Because this was an Exodus inspired position, the time limit for it is 10 trading days. No exceptions. Sometimes the time limitations work against me. Other times, it helps instill discipline and is helpful. By the end of the day, I will no longer have a short position in XLE.
Twenty five percent of my assets are in TLT, with the other 75% in cash. I will wait to buy SPY, upon another systemwide oversold signal. Judging by this horrid market action, that might be sooner, rather than later.
We’re running free trials this week, through Sunday. When I saw “we”, naturally, I mean it in the most royal of senses. Get your Mother a free trial to Exodus this Mother’s day, you misers.
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Rejection of $45 is a huge, huge rejection for this crude rally. Especially because it’s now been rejected 3 times. Don’t do it!
45.05 is 76.4% retracement of the 10/09/15 – 02/11/16 drop.
45.42 is 23.6% retracement of the June 2014 – Feb 2016 move.
45ish is the bottom of the Jan 2015 – Nov 2015 range.