The new bond King, Boss man at Double Line, Jeff Gundlach, said negative rates are deflation. It is the very essence of deflation, a tax levied upon the people that will have an onerous effect on asset prices. Moreover, he believes mortgage REITs are a screaming buy, whereas utilities are frothy.
He believes Trump will win and people need to deal with that eventuality, whether they like it or not. He said Trump is very much like Reagan and is supremely comfortable with debt. He believes Trump will try to build the wall and enact policies that will be beneficial to infrastructure spending.
All in all, a solid interview.
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Well, you sure can’t complain if we finally get our crumbling infrastructure fixed. And Keynes was right, that we should take on more debt during recessions, and then pay down the debt during good times. If the GOP Congress hadn’t blocked Obama from getting a big stimulus bill passed, then we would be out of this recession already.
Polls continue to indicate that it’s Hillary who will win the general election though.
1. There’s a lot of time between now and then.
2. The longer Bernie stays and wins little states going into Calif. the more he weakens Hillary. During this time,Trump takes pages from Bern’s playbook and drills her.
Toxic cocktail.
On the surface it would appear that way frog, but I think the proper equation would be like the following, using the primary voter numbers as a guide…
Trump primary voters + 70% of Repub voters that went for other candidates + 50% of Bernie voters, is going to be > the total number of Hillary voters in the general election.
If that bitch is not indicted before then. 🙂
Hildabeast has had to compete with basically only one other candidate through the entire primary season.
Trump on the other hand started with 17 contenders vying for the title. And he slew them all. David and Goliath fashion. Rock to the face and cut off their heads for the ultimate disgrace.
The polls usually refer to 1-on-1 matchups, and Hillary usually wins but it is close and could easily change.
For every white, male Dem vote Trump gets, Hillary wil get a white female Rep, so that evens out. And Trump isn’t getting any other Democratic demographic to vote for him in any significant number. You are also missing the 40% of Americans that count themselves as Independants in your equation, and they hate Trump more than they hate Hillary.
In terms of indictments, you’re crazy if you think think Hilalry will get into any trouble, even if anything she did was illegal. Here is how the sliding scale of Justice works:
Petraus: Leaking “the identities of covert officers, war strategy, intelligence capabilities and mechanisms” + 4-star general rank = PROBATION
Hillary: Sending classified info on a unsecured network + SecState position= no time spent in court
And there is absolutely no way that Trump will get 50% of Bernie voters. Won’t happen. Bernie and Trump have some overlap, but they also have a lot of differences.
Deporting millions people and blocking all immigration except white Protestants might be deflationary. I guess we make it up with infrastructure spending on the Wall.
I think that is infaltionary: bye-bye to cheap labor. The wage icnrease will work their way up the supply chain.
The isolationist tarde policies are also inflatioanry, as they make foeign godds either less common or more expensive.
On the other hand, both these effects could improve the welth disparity (in the long term)
1) higher wages for workers will offset the higher prices for low- and middle-income workers
2) falling corporate profits and stocks will lower incoem for the top brackets
3) less manufacturign competition will bring more jobs
Of course, the transition period will be nasty, as the infaltion will likely hit earlier than the wage and job increases…
Negative rates are intersting. Gundlach is not considering WHO is paying the interest in his analysis, however.
The rates apply to the cost of money, so negative rates are a boon for *borrowers*. This is the central idea behind CB policy: lowering rates makes borrowing cheaper, so (hopefully) this will encourage more people to borrow.
The problem isn’t negative rates themselves, it it that the whole policy of lowering rates doesn’t work when businesses aren’t interested in expanding. This is the central weakness of CB’s supply-side policies: if demand is low, then corporations aren’t going to expand, even with low rates.
The only way we’ll get a decent economic recovery is through policies directed at consumers: lower taxes on wages, higher taxes on capital gains, for example. The FED and CBs are powerless in this regard, and Congress is owned by corporate lobbyists who don’t seem to understand how poleaxing the middle class in the short term is only clown-punching themselves in the long term (did I get that usage correct?).
Congress cornholes and slaps ass.
SLAPASSSSSSSSSSSSSS.
YESSS!!!
Showtime applies negative rates to lemonade stands:
You owe me lemonade. You all owe me $.15 lemonade. Better not be diluted or piss
I’ll resurrect my LEMONADE
quip
from earlier
The dude,
So trump hates the Irish, Spanish, Greeks and Italians? No doubt he doesn’t like the French.
I’m gonna have to look into this. Please pass me on that shit your smoking. I got the good stuff , come check it out.
Regards
Chuck Bennett.
He believes Trump will try to build the wall
The Berlin Wall worked, but that was thanks to elaborate fortifications and an average of about 140 guards per mile, with orders to shoot to kill.
Seriously, the Berlin Wall?
You’re a psychotic
The wall idea is a crock, but, if you took the idea seriously, you’d propose something that works.
The Berlin Wall shows what it takes to keep motivated, creative humans on the side of a wall they don’t want to be on. If somebody is proposing a wall that would cost $100 billion, but is proposing something that won’t work, that person is either a fool or playing the crowd for fools.
It’s concrete and steel, not gold. $100 billion? You’re smoking crack
No, Fly.
Concrete and steel in the middle of nowhere.
Concrete and steel across rough terrain, up and down steep grades.
Concrete and steel laid on a lot of private property, that will have to be purchased, often after facing lawsuits from landowners opposed to the forced sale or the price offered.
Concrete and steel that will cut off drainage in many, many places without provisions to allow water through without making it easy for people to get through.
Concrete and steel that will divide habitats for nearly 2000 miles, which will require provisions for some animals to cross without enabling people to cross.
Concrete and steel that will have to extend well below surface level when not on rocky bases, partly for load bearing, but mostly to make tunneling more difficult. Did I mention that the excavation equipment will have to be transported to the middle of nowhere and operate in rough terrain?
Don’t forget construction of access roads, for the construction, for patrolling, and for repair and maintenance.
My “smoking crack” estimate is based on what the actual experience has been for building border fencing, which has mostly been placed in areas that are relatively close to infrastructure and have moderate terrain.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the wall are people who have traveled 100s or 1000s of miles at great risk, and will find a wall a minor nuisance. Drills, anchors, and epoxy will build simple wall-mounted steps and handholds up the wall for maybe $50 to $200 per location. Once up, there are a lot of ways to get down the other side.
You want a wall? Face the reality of it.