I know. No one cares about this at all. It’s sort of like not caring about where oxygen comes from. We all just take it for granted. We go outside and commit heinous acts and expect that oxygen to be there for us, in order to propel us forward. The same thing happens with iron ore and steel.
Goldman is looking for it to be halved…from current levels.
“We think this market will go back to $35 during the fourth quarter,” analyst Christian Lelong said in an interview. That’s 50 percent below Thursday’s close of $70.46 a dry metric ton, the highest level since January 2015. “Our expectation is the oversupply in the iron ore market will return.”
Iron ore has surged in 2016 in sharp contrast to the previous three years, when a slowing Chinese economy hurt prices and too much supply chased too little demand. This year, policy makers in China have talked up growth and added stimulus, presiding over a revival in the property market that’s boosted the outlook for steel consumption. Still, burgeoning supply and stalling demand growth may once again drag prices down, according to Goldman.
QuickTake Iron Ore
“Going into the second half of the year, what are you going to need to absorb all that iron ore supply?” New York-based Lelong said by phone from London on Thursday. “It’s going to be very hard to have strong enough demand growth in the Chinese steel sector to keep things in balance.”
Armageddon.
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Kinda like how Goldman’s $20 oil prediction is 50% below the current price.
The only thing to think about in these releases is how Goldman’s book must be positioned to exploit the report.
misinformation, disinformation, or rank profiteering
Looks like Goldman is caught short and trying to squirm out of it.
Iron ore easy double. Gig is up with Goldman scum. Said the same on gold and miners. Seen miners lately ?
You know nothing about industry cost curves and demand profile to make such a statement. The Chinamen will need to build another China (in Africa perhaps) to sustain sufficient demand for such an outcome.
I now feel dirty but feel it my duty to explain how wrong your call is on iron ore.
Long gold however. I hope this is taken the right way.
$VALE puked today but after a huge run. Not entirely iron ore either. The whole commodity group is due to kill late bulls. Stop chasing. Fools.
Bagholders queuing to buy things they would have crossed the road to avoid 3 months ago – a bit like Tesla Model X buyers.
Hyundai offering – Mercedes price
This is what happens when you try and build an Ark out of iron ore.
I remember GS’s BS oil calls in 2008. Anyway, iron ore has been at $180+ (pre-Olympics China build up), and down to $30s in the last 10 years. I guess it depends on the news from China. If steel really is seeing higher China demand (hard to believe), then $70 iron ore makes sense.
China can lick my kilted taint.
I resemble that remark(able) image