This week inside Exodus, the algorithms went apeshit for crude, suggesting in the strongest of terms that crude oil was overbought and a sundry of crude based ETFs were overdue for a sharp rebuke.
Having made a commitment to follow the algorithms to the strictest of terms in 2016, by the end of the week I found myself 125% exposed to the market, of which 100% of my assets placed in a short position against XLE.
Naturally, the algos had no idea that oil talks were to be held in Doha. It only detected a very perverse bullishness in crude oil, supported by scores of overzealous traders. Should the talks in Doha fail, there is a strong chance that the recent rally in oil will be unwound and the trades suggested by Exodus proved inexorably correct.
The above were my blogs inside Exodus for the week which has passed. Below are the unprecedented oversold signals in the inverse ETF DUG.
My preference, of course, is to be short XLE, as it poses far less risk through a marked deceased volatility thanks to the mega cap status of its members.
It’s worth noting, this is the boldest position of mine for 2016. Having 100% of my assets short XLE and another 25% long TLT, it’s fair to assume the tone and measure of my performance, for the first half of 2016, is going to be defined and sorted out over the next two weeks.
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the high cost producers stop, perhaps, and the low cost producers deplete their most prolific fields. Saudi doesn’t want to see their stuff go this cheap.
You will experience pedestrian performance throughout 2016 due to your modified cranky old man approach, but I do respect your work.
All depends on what you define as ‘pedestrian’.
Having been in the business for 20 years, I can tell you the tolls and anguish of having to deal with your type of trading style is simply not worth the potential rewards.
My approach is simple: solid returns through a lower beta approach, by which my lifespan will be extended.
Seems a like a win to me.
True ‘dat. Dead people don’t enjoy their profits very much.
Low stress. Low return.
Its been my philosophy for many years.
I couldn’t agree more. You are missing out if you aren’t an Exodus subscriber.
Congrats in order Senor Fly – Doha was a bust – you should be rocking this year.
how do you know what his future performance is going to be? what if we turned bear start of this year?
I am 2x short on qqq and rut in the intermediate time frame. spring and summer will be wild.
Fair enough.
Go Fly…you tell them!!
Holy shnickey. What in Sam hill is going on.
Time to buy some vix
Don’t be so quick to call Fly an old man. 100% short a single etf is anything but conservative. You people must be crack addicts.
Fly, do you sleep in a hyperbaric coffin? I realize you are over 1,000 years old, but only three hours of sleep per night?
125% short – and yes, nowhere near conservative. Bold and brilliant, particularly in real-time. May end up with some more Exodus customers out of this. Congrats Fly.