iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Futures Traders Are Calling the Fed’s Bluff; March Rate Hike Probability Dives to 31%

Next up June. Futures traders are playing with fire, lulling an already scared-shitless stock market into a false sense of security, attempting to hemlock the Fed into not jacking up interest rates, (count ’em) four times in 2016.

Futures traders at the CME now indicate the central bank will not move on rates until June, following a major selloff in the market Friday morning. The chance of a March hike, above 50 percent just a few days ago, has dwindled to 35 percent.

The next closest month for a hike is now June, which has a 54 percent probability. Earlier in the morning, expectations had put the hike off until July, but that pulled in after New York Fed President William Dudley said in a speech that he still sees rates on a steady trajectory higher.

Fedwatch

Despite global equity markets crashing through the floor boards the first 10 days of 2016, Federal Reserve talking heads still went out and said the economy was strong enough and awesome enough to absorb, and rather enjoy, 16 rate hikes over the next 3 years.

Should the Fed pursue this strategy with vigor, the last rate hike will be announced atop of mountain of smoldering rubble–in the midst of American revolt.

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12 comments

  1. stockslueth

    I’m counting on them to follow-thru with the rate hikes. It will make for interesting times.

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  2. frog

    American revolt is already being planned– or at least a sit in, in WA D.C.

    http://www.democracyspring.org/

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    • ironbird

      Go fuck yourself you child. Seriously why your dipshit ass has not been banned is a mystery. These hallowed halls are about making money. Communism does not work you fucking fool.

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  3. razorsedge

    So don’t follow idiot calls. Trump like sound bites may be the rage but….

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  4. hedge500

    I bet they raise. There was no reason to raise Dec and they went through with it – they obviously have no clue what they’re doing.
    If that stupid, ‘transient factors’ spewing pile of shit came out tomorrow and said no hikes this year we’d have a face melting rally.
    Rates cannot go up, ever. Unless middle Americas wages start going up so they can make payments on ever increasing prices. *Not going to happen*
    Short silicon valley real estate.

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